JAPAN J1 LEAGUE
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Ajinomoto Stadium

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 85.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 24.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 22.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
85.5%
-
BTTS BTTS No
24.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
22.8%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
FC Tokyo Win 49.3%
Draw 14.5%
Cerezo Osaka Win 36.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
FC Tokyo1.48
Cerezo Osaka1.29
Recent Form (Last 5)
FC Tokyo FC Tokyo
WWDLW
34 GF / 21 GA
Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka
WLDWL
29 GF / 23 GA
Key Stats
1.7
Average Goals Scored
1.45
1.05
Average Goals Conceded
1.15
11
BTTS Yes
12
11
Over 2.5
11
5.37
Shots on Goal
4.37

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 20 matches
Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 20 matches
FC Tokyo Statistic Cerezo Osaka
10 Wins 7
7 Draws 7
3 Losses 6
34 Goals For 29
21 Goals Against 23
1.7 Avg Goals Scored 1.45
1.05 Avg Goals Conceded 1.15
11 BTTS Yes 12
16 Over 1.5 15
11 Over 2.5 11
5 Over 3.5 4
6 Clean Sheets 6
6 Failed To Score 5
5.37 Shots On Goal 4.37
15.47 Total Shots 11.47
5.11 Corners 4.84
52.4% Ball Possession 50.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Cerezo Osaka. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Cerezo Osaka look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with FC Tokyo expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Cerezo Osaka in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Cerezo Osaka having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

FC Tokyo Analysis

FC Tokyo come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 2 place with 37 points after 18 matches. The return of 13 wins, 0 draws, and 5 defeats, together with goals at 32:18, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through Marcelo Ryan (6 goals), Kein Sato (5 goals), Ryunosuke Sato (5 goals), with creative support from Marcelo Ryan (4 assists), Kein Sato (4 assists), K. Hashimoto (2 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, the split of 6 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Cerezo Osaka Analysis

Cerezo Osaka come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 2 place with 31 points after 18 matches. With 11 wins, 0 draws, and 7 defeats plus a goal balance of 30:21, they continue to show very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking quality is driven by S. Sakuragawa (6 goals), Thiago Andrade (6 goals), Shunta Tanaka (4 goals), with creative support from M. Shibayama (5 assists), Motohiko Nakajima (4 assists), Nelson Ishiwatari (3 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their record of 5 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, FC Tokyo won 7 times, Cerezo Osaka won 2 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 27:16 from FC Tokyo's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.87 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.5%)
Predicted formations: FC Tokyo 4-4-2 / Cerezo Osaka 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: FC Tokyo wins 7, draws 6, Cerezo Osaka wins 2
Last matches: FC Tokyo
30.05.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Cerezo Osaka
2
2
D
23.05.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Kashima
0
1
L
16.05.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Urawa
0
0
D
10.05.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Tokyo Verdy
2
1
W
06.05.26
J1
FC Tokyo
JEF United Chiba
0
3
L
02.05.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Kawasaki Frontale
2
0
W
29.04.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Kashiwa Reysol
3
1
W
24.04.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Mito Hollyhock
5
2
W
11.04.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Yokohama F. Marinos
3
1
W
05.04.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Machida Zelvia
0
0
D
01.04.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Machida Zelvia
3
0
W
22.03.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Tokyo Verdy
0
0
D
18.03.26
J1
FC Tokyo
JEF United Chiba
2
1
W
14.03.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Mito Hollyhock
1
1
D
07.03.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Yokohama F. Marinos
3
0
W
28.02.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Kashiwa Reysol
0
2
L
21.02.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Kawasaki Frontale
2
1
W
14.02.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Urawa
1
1
D
07.02.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Kashima
1
1
D
18.01.26
Fri
FC Tokyo
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
4
3
W
Last matches: Cerezo Osaka
30.05.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
FC Tokyo
2
2
D
24.05.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Fagiano Okayama
3
2
W
17.05.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Nagoya Grampus
6
1
W
09.05.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
V-varen Nagasaki
3
2
W
06.05.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Shimizu S-pulse
1
1
D
03.05.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Avispa Fukuoka
1
1
D
29.04.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Vissel Kobe
0
0
D
25.04.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1
2
L
18.04.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Kyoto Sanga
3
0
W
11.04.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Gamba Osaka
1
0
W
04.04.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Nagoya Grampus
0
3
L
22.03.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Vissel Kobe
1
1
D
18.03.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Fagiano Okayama
1
2
L
14.03.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Kyoto Sanga
2
1
W
07.03.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Shimizu S-pulse
0
0
D
28.02.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
V-varen Nagasaki
0
1
L
22.02.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1
2
L
15.02.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Avispa Fukuoka
2
0
W
08.02.26
Fri
Cerezo Osaka
TIAMO Hirakata
1
2
L
07.02.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Gamba Osaka
0
0
D
H2H: FC Tokyo vs Cerezo Osaka
30.05.26
H2H
Cerezo Osaka
FC Tokyo
2
2
D
06.08.25
H2H
FC Tokyo
Cerezo Osaka
2
1
W
14.06.25
H2H
FC Tokyo
Cerezo Osaka
2
2
D
20.04.25
H2H
Cerezo Osaka
FC Tokyo
1
1
D
08.12.24
H2H
FC Tokyo
Cerezo Osaka
3
0
W
24.02.24
H2H
Cerezo Osaka
FC Tokyo
2
2
D
06.08.23
H2H
Cerezo Osaka
FC Tokyo
0
1
W
24.05.23
H2H
FC Tokyo
Cerezo Osaka
0
0
D
15.04.23
H2H
FC Tokyo
Cerezo Osaka
1
2
L
08.03.23
H2H
Cerezo Osaka
FC Tokyo
1
0
L
12.10.22
H2H
FC Tokyo
Cerezo Osaka
4
0
W
06.03.22
H2H
Cerezo Osaka
FC Tokyo
0
1
W
21.07.21
H2H
Cerezo Osaka
FC Tokyo
3
3
D
06.03.21
H2H
FC Tokyo
Cerezo Osaka
3
2
W
23.09.20
H2H
FC Tokyo
Cerezo Osaka
2
0
W
Last matches: FC Tokyo
10.05.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Tokyo Verdy
2
1
W
06.05.26
J1
FC Tokyo
JEF United Chiba
0
3
L
02.05.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Kawasaki Frontale
2
0
W
24.04.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Mito Hollyhock
5
2
W
05.04.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Machida Zelvia
0
0
D
07.03.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Yokohama F. Marinos
3
0
W
28.02.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Kashiwa Reysol
0
2
L
14.02.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Urawa
1
1
D
07.02.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Kashima
1
1
D
18.01.26
Fri
FC Tokyo
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
4
3
W
H2H at home: FC Tokyo
06.08.25
H2H
FC Tokyo
Cerezo Osaka
2
1
W
14.06.25
H2H
FC Tokyo
Cerezo Osaka
2
2
D
08.12.24
H2H
FC Tokyo
Cerezo Osaka
3
0
W
24.05.23
H2H
FC Tokyo
Cerezo Osaka
0
0
D
15.04.23
H2H
FC Tokyo
Cerezo Osaka
1
2
L
12.10.22
H2H
FC Tokyo
Cerezo Osaka
4
0
W
06.03.21
H2H
FC Tokyo
Cerezo Osaka
3
2
W
23.09.20
H2H
FC Tokyo
Cerezo Osaka
2
0
W
Last matches: Cerezo Osaka
24.05.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Fagiano Okayama
3
2
W
06.05.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Shimizu S-pulse
1
1
D
29.04.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Vissel Kobe
0
0
D
25.04.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1
2
L
11.04.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Gamba Osaka
1
0
W
04.04.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Nagoya Grampus
0
3
L
14.03.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Kyoto Sanga
2
1
W
28.02.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
V-varen Nagasaki
0
1
L
15.02.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Avispa Fukuoka
2
0
W
H2H away: Cerezo Osaka
06.08.25
H2H
FC Tokyo
Cerezo Osaka
2
1
L
14.06.25
H2H
FC Tokyo
Cerezo Osaka
2
2
D
08.12.24
H2H
FC Tokyo
Cerezo Osaka
3
0
L
24.05.23
H2H
FC Tokyo
Cerezo Osaka
0
0
D
15.04.23
H2H
FC Tokyo
Cerezo Osaka
1
2
W
12.10.22
H2H
FC Tokyo
Cerezo Osaka
4
0
L
06.03.21
H2H
FC Tokyo
Cerezo Osaka
3
2
L
23.09.20
H2H
FC Tokyo
Cerezo Osaka
2
0
L

Standings

# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 15 0 3 31:11 20 45
W W W W W
1 18 11 0 7 29:25 4 35
W L W L W
2 18 13 0 5 32:18 14 37
L W W L W
2 18 11 0 7 30:21 9 31
W W W L W
3 18 13 0 5 28:22 6 37
W L W W W
3 18 10 0 8 33:31 2 31
L L W W W
4 18 10 0 8 26:28 -2 28
W W L W L
4 18 10 0 8 31:23 8 30
W W W L L
5 18 10 0 8 22:26 -4 28
L W L L L
5 18 10 0 8 31:25 6 28
W L L W L
6 18 7 0 11 25:22 3 25
L L W W W
6 18 8 0 10 26:29 -3 26
L W W L W
7 18 6 0 12 28:31 -3 20
W L L L L
7 18 8 0 10 23:25 -2 24
L L W W W
8 18 7 0 11 22:24 -2 20
W W W L L
8 18 8 0 10 22:28 -6 23
W L L L L
9 18 6 0 12 23:39 -16 18
L L L L W
9 18 7 0 11 21:29 -8 21
L W L W L
10 18 3 0 15 18:34 -16 12
L L L W L
10 18 7 0 11 21:31 -10 21
L L W L W