RUSSIA PREMIER LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Fisht Olympic Stadium
Referee: S. Tsyganok
FC Sochi
Match Timeline
FC Orenburg
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
7'
K. Kravtsov
FC Sochi
🔄
32'
R. Ezhov ↔ A. Zinkovskiy
FC Sochi
33'
K. Kravtsov · Assist: R. Magal
FC Sochi
🟨
39'
Sergey Volkov
FC Sochi
🔄
46'
E. Gurluk ↔ D. Puebla
FC Orenburg
🔄
46'
I. Ivashchenko ↔ R. Golybin
FC Orenburg
🟨
59'
Kirill Zaika
FC Sochi
🔄
64'
G. Guzina ↔ Alexandre Jesus
FC Orenburg
67'
K. Kravtsov · Assist: V. Iljin
FC Sochi
69'
Alexandre Jesus · Assist: J. Thompson
FC Orenburg
🔄
72'
E. Bolotov ↔ I. Kvekveskiri
FC Orenburg
🔄
78'
M. Ignatov ↔ D. Vasiljev
FC Sochi
🔄
82'
J. Thompson ↔ A. El Mahraoui
FC Orenburg
🟨
90+5'
Aleksandr Degtev
FC Sochi
🔄
90+2'
K. Kravtsov ↔ A. Kovalenko
FC Sochi
🔄
90+2'
V. Iljin ↔ P. Meleshin
FC Sochi
🔄
90+2'
M. Mukhin ↔ A. Korneev
FC Sochi

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 84.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 50.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
84.4%
-
BTTS BTTS No
50.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.3%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
FC Sochi Win 38.4%
Draw 15.6%
FC Orenburg Win 46%
Expected Goals (xG)
FC Sochi1.1
FC Orenburg1.43
Recent Form (Last 5)
FC Sochi FC Sochi
WWDLW
24 GF / 56 GA
FC Orenburg FC Orenburg
WLDWL
27 GF / 38 GA
Key Stats
0.89
Average Goals Scored
1
2.07
Average Goals Conceded
1.41
14
BTTS Yes
13
17
Over 2.5
11
2.78
Shots on Goal
3.89

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FC Sochi FC Sochi 27 matches
FC Orenburg FC Orenburg 27 matches
FC Sochi Statistic FC Orenburg
5 Wins 6
3 Draws 8
19 Losses 13
24 Goals For 27
56 Goals Against 38
0.89 Avg Goals Scored 1
2.07 Avg Goals Conceded 1.41
14 BTTS Yes 13
21 Over 1.5 16
17 Over 2.5 11
9 Over 3.5 8
4 Clean Sheets 5
11 Failed To Score 12
2.78 Shots On Goal 3.89
8.78 Total Shots 12.19
3.56 Corners 5.3
46.7% Ball Possession 47.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward FC Orenburg. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with FC Sochi expected to line up in 3-4-3 and FC Orenburg in 5-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward FC Orenburg having the stronger overall control.

FC Sochi Analysis

FC Sochi approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 16 with 18 points from 27 matches. Across the season they have posted 5 wins, 3 draws, and 19 defeats, and the 24:56 goal record continues to suggest good form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Mikhail Ignatov (4 goals), Anton Zinkovskiy (3 goals), Ignacio Saavedra (3 goals), with creative support from Anton Zinkovskiy (2 assists), Ruslan Magal (2 assists), Mikhail Ignatov (1 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 9 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

FC Orenburg Analysis

From their first 27 matches, FC Orenburg have collected 26 points and now occupy 12 place in the table. The record of 6 wins, 8 draws, and 13 defeats, together with a 27:38 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through J. Thompson (5 goals), E. Gurluk (4 goals), M. Savelyev (3 goals), with creative support from J. Thompson (4 assists), E. Gurluk (1 assists), Du Queiroz (1 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 8 losses points toward a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, FC Sochi won 2 times, FC Orenburg won 8 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:28 from FC Sochi's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.46 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84.4%)
Predicted formations: FC Sochi 3-4-3 / FC Orenburg 5-4-1
Missing players: FC Sochi 4, FC Orenburg 0
H2H summary: FC Sochi wins 2, draws 3, FC Orenburg wins 8
Stats
FC Sochi FC Sochi
FC Orenburg FC Orenburg
Shots on Goal
5
Shots on Goal
3
Shots off Goal
6
Shots off Goal
6
Blocked Shots
3
Blocked Shots
5
5 Corner Kicks 11
16 Fouls 13
1 Offsides 1
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Goal 3
6 Shots off Goal 6
3 Blocked Shots 5
9 Shots insidebox 9
5 Shots outsidebox 5
2 Goalkeeper Saves 2
389 Total passes 378
309 Passes accurate 290
0 expected_goals 0
🟨 3 Yellow Cards 0 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

FC Sochi
Formation
FC Orenburg
A. Degtev
A. Degtev
S. Volkov
S. Volkov
Marcelo Alves
Marcelo Alves
V. Litvinov
V. Litvinov
K. Zaika
K. Zaika
M. Mukhin
M. Mukhin
K. Kravtsov
⚽ 3
K. Kravtsov
R. Magal
🎯
R. Magal
R. Ezhov
R. Ezhov
V. Iljin
🎯
V. Iljin
M. Ignatov
M. Ignatov
B. Ovsyannikov
B. Ovsyannikov
I. Ivashchenko
I. Ivashchenko
J. Palacios
J. Palacios
D. Khotulev
D. Khotulev
F. Moufi
F. Moufi
Du Queiroz
Du Queiroz
E. Bolotov
E. Bolotov
A. Cantero
A. Cantero
J. Thompson
🎯
J. Thompson
G. Guzina
G. Guzina
E. Gurluk
E. Gurluk
FC Sochi 3-4-3
Starting XI
35
A. Degtev
🟨 90+5'
G
82
S. Volkov
🟨 39'
D
33
Marcelo Alves
D
4
V. Litvinov
D
27
K. Zaika
🟨 59'
M
16
M. Mukhin
↓ 90+2'
M
14
K. Kravtsov
⚽ 7' ⚽ 33' ⚽ 67' ↓ 90+2'
M
28
R. Magal
🎯 33'
M
29
R. Ezhov
↓ 32'
F
98
V. Iljin
🎯 67' ↓ 90+2'
F
8
M. Ignatov
↓ 78'
F
Substitutes
99
Y. Dyupin
G
85
D. Silev
G
45
F. Kamano
F
7
A. Zinkovskiy
↑ 32'
M
19
A. Kovalenko
↑ 90+2'
M
59
R. Bart
F
25
Y. Attiyat Allah
D
23
G. Furtado
M
9
Z. Fedorov
F
20
D. Vasiljev
↑ 78'
M
11
P. Meleshin
↑ 90+2'
F
18
A. Korneev
↑ 90+2'
M
FC Orenburg 3-4-3
Starting XI
1
B. Ovsyannikov
G
65
I. Ivashchenko
↓ 46'
D
6
J. Palacios
D
4
D. Khotulev
D
18
F. Moufi
M
37
Du Queiroz
M
57
E. Bolotov
↓ 72'
M
32
A. Cantero
M
16
J. Thompson
🎯 69' ↓ 82'
F
30
G. Guzina
↓ 64'
F
7
E. Gurluk
↓ 46'
F
Substitutes
88
M. Rudakov
G
33
I. Kvekveskiri
↑ 72'
M
9
M. Savelyev
F
3
D. Vedernikov
D
26
E. Tsenov
M
19
Alexandre Jesus
⚽ 69' ↑ 64'
F
38
A. Kasimov
D
8
D. Puebla
↑ 46'
F
2
S. Poroykov
M
27
R. Golybin
↑ 46'
M
29
A. El Mahraoui
↑ 82'
F
59
T. Avanesyan
M
Last matches: FC Sochi
03.07.26
Fri
FC Sochi
Torpedo Moskva
0
3
L
30.06.26
Fri
FC Sochi
Ska-khabarovsk
4
2
W
26.06.26
Fri
FC Sochi
Arsenal Tula
3
3
D
17.05.26
Pre
FC Sochi
Akhmat
1
1
D
10.05.26
Pre
FC Sochi
Zenit
1
2
L
26.04.26
Pre
FC Sochi
Dynamo
0
2
L
21.04.26
Pre
FC Sochi
Krylia Sovetov
2
1
W
17.04.26
Pre
FC Sochi
FC Rostov
1
0
W
12.04.26
Pre
FC Sochi
CSKA Moscow
1
0
W
06.04.26
Pre
FC Sochi
Rubin
0
1
L
21.03.26
Pre
FC Sochi
Baltika
0
4
L
14.03.26
Pre
FC Sochi
FC Krasnodar
1
2
L
07.03.26
Pre
FC Sochi
Nizhny Novgorod
1
2
L
02.03.26
Pre
FC Sochi
Spartak Moscow
2
3
L
21.02.26
Fri
FC Sochi
Bars
3
2
W
21.02.26
Fri
FC Sochi
Aktobe
3
0
W
15.02.26
Fri
FC Sochi
Rodina Moskva
3
2
W
12.02.26
Fri
FC Sochi
Dinamo Makhachkala
0
3
L
05.02.26
Fri
FC Sochi
Fakel
2
2
D
30.01.26
Fri
FC Sochi
Struga
2
1
W
Last matches: FC Orenburg
11.07.26
Fri
FC Orenburg
CSKA Moscow
2
0
W
07.07.26
Fri
FC Orenburg
Dynamo
1
2
L
03.07.26
Fri
FC Orenburg
Rubin
2
1
W
25.06.26
Fri
FC Orenburg
FK Neftekhimik
0
1
L
17.05.26
Pre
FC Orenburg
FC Krasnodar
0
3
L
10.05.26
Pre
FC Orenburg
Krylia Sovetov
1
0
W
25.04.26
Pre
FC Orenburg
FC Rostov
1
0
W
22.04.26
Pre
FC Orenburg
Nizhny Novgorod
2
1
W
18.04.26
Pre
FC Orenburg
Lokomotiv
0
1
L
11.04.26
Pre
FC Orenburg
Rubin
0
0
D
04.04.26
Pre
FC Orenburg
Dynamo
3
3
D
22.03.26
Pre
FC Orenburg
Spartak Moscow
0
2
L
13.03.26
Pre
FC Orenburg
Dinamo Makhachkala
0
1
L
08.03.26
Pre
FC Orenburg
Zenit
2
1
W
28.02.26
Pre
FC Orenburg
Akron
2
0
W
20.02.26
Fri
FC Orenburg
Rubin
1
0
W
13.02.26
Fri
FC Orenburg
Kairat Almaty
0
1
L
13.02.26
Fri
FC Orenburg
Alashkert
2
1
W
06.02.26
Fri
FC Orenburg
Bunyodkor
5
1
W
31.01.26
Fri
FC Orenburg
Mornar
1
0
W
H2H: FC Sochi vs FC Orenburg
03.05.26
H2H
FC Sochi
FC Orenburg
3
1
W
02.11.25
H2H
FC Orenburg
FC Sochi
3
1
L
10.12.23
H2H
PFC Sochi
Orenburg
1
1
D
04.10.23
H2H
PFC Sochi
Orenburg
1
2
W
03.09.23
H2H
Orenburg
PFC Sochi
3
0
L
09.08.23
H2H
Orenburg
PFC Sochi
2
0
L
10.03.23
H2H
PFC Sochi
Orenburg
0
4
W
01.10.22
H2H
Orenburg
PFC Sochi
4
1
L
21.10.20
H2H
Orenburg
PFC Sochi
1
1
D
11.03.20
H2H
PFC Sochi
Orenburg
5
1
L
16.08.19
H2H
Orenburg
PFC Sochi
1
1
D
21.04.18
H2H
Orenburg
PFC Sochi
4
3
L
30.09.17
H2H
PFC Sochi
Orenburg
0
1
W
Last matches: FC Sochi
03.07.26
Fri
FC Sochi
Torpedo Moskva
0
3
L
30.06.26
Fri
FC Sochi
Ska-khabarovsk
4
2
W
26.06.26
Fri
FC Sochi
Arsenal Tula
3
3
D
17.05.26
Pre
FC Sochi
Akhmat
1
1
D
21.04.26
Pre
FC Sochi
Krylia Sovetov
2
1
W
06.04.26
Pre
FC Sochi
Rubin
0
1
L
14.03.26
Pre
FC Sochi
FC Krasnodar
1
2
L
02.03.26
Pre
FC Sochi
Spartak Moscow
2
3
L
21.02.26
Fri
FC Sochi
Bars
3
2
W
21.02.26
Fri
FC Sochi
Aktobe
3
0
W
15.02.26
Fri
FC Sochi
Rodina Moskva
3
2
W
12.02.26
Fri
FC Sochi
Dinamo Makhachkala
0
3
L
05.02.26
Fri
FC Sochi
Fakel
2
2
D
30.01.26
Fri
FC Sochi
Struga
2
1
W
28.01.26
Fri
FC Sochi
Sloga Doboj
3
3
D
21.01.26
Fri
FC Sochi
Tyumen
2
2
D
07.12.25
Pre
FC Sochi
Lokomotiv
2
4
L
01.12.25
Pre
FC Sochi
Dinamo Makhachkala
0
0
D
08.11.25
Pre
FC Sochi
FC Rostov
0
1
L
19.10.25
Pre
FC Sochi
Zenit
0
3
L
H2H at home: FC Sochi
03.05.26
H2H
FC Sochi
FC Orenburg
3
1
W
Last matches: FC Orenburg
07.07.26
Fri
FC Orenburg
Dynamo
1
2
L
03.07.26
Fri
FC Orenburg
Rubin
2
1
W
17.05.26
Pre
FC Orenburg
FC Krasnodar
0
3
L
25.04.26
Pre
FC Orenburg
FC Rostov
1
0
W
11.04.26
Pre
FC Orenburg
Rubin
0
0
D
04.04.26
Pre
FC Orenburg
Dynamo
3
3
D
13.03.26
Pre
FC Orenburg
Dinamo Makhachkala
0
1
L
05.12.25
Pre
FC Orenburg
Akhmat
0
1
L
29.11.25
Pre
FC Orenburg
CSKA Moscow
0
2
L
09.11.25
Pre
FC Orenburg
Lokomotiv
0
1
L
25.10.25
Pre
FC Orenburg
Spartak Moscow
0
1
L
18.10.25
Pre
FC Orenburg
Krylia Sovetov
1
1
D
27.09.25
Pre
FC Orenburg
Zenit
2
5
L
13.09.25
Pre
FC Orenburg
Nizhny Novgorod
1
3
L
17.08.25
Pre
FC Orenburg
Akron
2
1
W
03.08.25
Pre
FC Orenburg
Baltika
2
3
L
H2H away: FC Orenburg
03.05.26
H2H
FC Sochi
FC Orenburg
3
1
L

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 20 8 2 53:19 34 68
W W W W D
2 30 20 6 4 60:23 37 66
W L W W W
3 30 14 11 5 54:39 15 53
L W D L D
4 30 15 7 8 47:39 8 52
D W L W L
5 30 15 6 9 44:33 11 51
W W L D D
6 30 11 13 6 38:21 17 46
L L L L D
7 30 12 9 9 51:40 11 45
W W D W L
8 30 11 10 9 29:30 -1 43
D L W D W
9 30 9 10 11 35:39 -4 37
D D W L D
10 30 8 9 13 25:32 -7 33
L W W L D
11 30 8 8 14 35:50 -15 32
W L W W L
12 30 7 8 15 29:44 -15 29
L W L W W
13 30 6 9 15 35:53 -18 27
L W L L L
14 30 5 11 14 19:37 -18 26
W W D D L
15 30 6 5 19 26:50 -24 23
D L L L L
16 30 6 4 20 29:60 -31 22
D L W L W
Relegation Playoffs
Relegation

Missing Players

FC Sochi 4 missing
-
A. Makarchuk
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT
-
A. Soldatenkov
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT
-
N. Stojic
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
-
M. Chirkov
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
FC Orenburg 0 missing
No missing players data