RUSSIA PREMIER LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Rostov Arena
Referee: P. Kukuyan
FC Rostov
Match Timeline
FC Orenburg
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
46'
V. Melekhin ↔ D. Semenchuk
FC Rostov
🔄
67'
K. Kuchaev ↔ D. Shantaliy
FC Rostov
🔄
72'
Alexandre Jesus ↔ G. Guzina
FC Orenburg
🔄
72'
E. Gurluk ↔ R. Golybin
FC Orenburg
🔄
73'
E. Golenkov ↔ K. Bayramyan
FC Rostov
🔄
73'
J. Thompson ↔ D. Puebla
FC Orenburg
85'
G. Guzina
FC Orenburg
🔄
88'
K. Shchetinin ↔ M. Mohebi
FC Rostov
🟨
89'
Maksim Rudakov
FC Orenburg
🟨
90+7'
Danila Vedernikov
FC Orenburg
🟨
90+3'
Alexis Cantero
FC Orenburg
🔄
90+6'
Du Queiroz ↔ I. Kvekveskiri
FC Orenburg
🔄
90+3'
A. Cantero ↔ D. Vedernikov
FC Orenburg

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 82.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 58.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 54.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
82.9%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
58.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
54.5%
-
Probability Distribution
FC Rostov Win 82.9%
Draw 6.2%
FC Orenburg Win 11%
Expected Goals (xG)
FC Rostov1.05
FC Orenburg1.03
Recent Form (Last 5)
FC Rostov FC Rostov
WWDLW
20 GF / 28 GA
FC Orenburg FC Orenburg
WLDWL
26 GF / 38 GA
Key Stats
0.77
Average Goals Scored
1
1.08
Average Goals Conceded
1.46
11
BTTS Yes
13
5
Over 2.5
11
3.62
Shots on Goal
3.96

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FC Rostov FC Rostov 26 matches
FC Orenburg FC Orenburg 26 matches
FC Rostov Statistic FC Orenburg
6 Wins 5
9 Draws 8
11 Losses 13
20 Goals For 26
28 Goals Against 38
0.77 Avg Goals Scored 1
1.08 Avg Goals Conceded 1.46
11 BTTS Yes 13
13 Over 1.5 16
5 Over 2.5 11
3 Over 3.5 8
8 Clean Sheets 4
9 Failed To Score 12
3.62 Shots On Goal 3.96
11.65 Total Shots 12.15
4.35 Corners 5.38
48.2% Ball Possession 47.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward FC Orenburg. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with FC Rostov expected to line up in 3-5-2 and FC Orenburg in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward FC Orenburg having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

FC Rostov Analysis

From their first 26 matches, FC Rostov have collected 27 points and now occupy 10 place in the table. Their overall return of 6 wins, 9 draws, and 11 losses with goals at 19:26 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Ronaldo (5 goals), Timur Suleymanov (4 goals), Aleksey Mironov (2 goals), with creative support from Egor Golenkov (3 assists), M. Mohebi (2 assists), Kirill Shchetinin (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

FC Orenburg Analysis

FC Orenburg are currently 13 in the standings with 23 points from 26 matches. Their overall return of 5 wins, 8 draws, and 13 losses with goals at 24:36 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by J. Thompson (5 goals), E. Gurluk (4 goals), M. Savelyev (3 goals), with creative support from J. Thompson (4 assists), E. Gurluk (1 assists), Du Queiroz (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 8 losses fits a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with B. Ovsyannikov unavailable.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, FC Rostov won 9 times, FC Orenburg won 3 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 24:19 from FC Rostov's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 2.87 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.8%)
Predicted formations: FC Rostov 3-5-2 / FC Orenburg 4-2-3-1
Missing players: FC Rostov 0, FC Orenburg 1
H2H summary: FC Rostov wins 9, draws 3, FC Orenburg wins 3
Stats
FC Rostov FC Rostov
FC Orenburg FC Orenburg
Shots on Goal
4
Shots on Goal
2
Shots off Goal
4
Shots off Goal
6
Blocked Shots
6
Blocked Shots
5
7 Corner Kicks 3
14 Fouls 17
2 Offsides 0
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Goal 2
4 Shots off Goal 6
6 Blocked Shots 5
6 Shots insidebox 7
8 Shots outsidebox 6
1 Goalkeeper Saves 4
348 Total passes 328
209 Passes accurate 196
0 expected_goals 0
🟨 0 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

FC Rostov
Formation
FC Orenburg
R. Yatimov
R. Yatimov
V. Melekhin
V. Melekhin
D. Chistyakov
D. Chistyakov
O. Sako
O. Sako
I. Vakhania
I. Vakhania
K. Shchetinin
K. Shchetinin
A. Mironov
A. Mironov
K. Kuchaev
K. Kuchaev
Ronaldo
Ronaldo
E. Golenkov
E. Golenkov
T. Suleymanov
T. Suleymanov
M. Rudakov
M. Rudakov
F. Moufi
F. Moufi
I. Ivashchenko
I. Ivashchenko
J. Palacios
J. Palacios
D. Khotulev
D. Khotulev
A. Cantero
A. Cantero
J. Thompson
J. Thompson
Du Queiroz
Du Queiroz
E. Bolotov
E. Bolotov
E. Gurluk
E. Gurluk
Alexandre Jesus
Alexandre Jesus
FC Rostov 4-3-3
Starting XI
1
R. Yatimov
G
4
V. Melekhin
↓ 46'
D
78
D. Chistyakov
D
3
O. Sako
D
40
I. Vakhania
D
10
K. Shchetinin
↓ 88'
M
8
A. Mironov
M
18
K. Kuchaev
↓ 67'
M
7
Ronaldo
F
69
E. Golenkov
↓ 73'
F
99
T. Suleymanov
F
Substitutes
71
D. Odoevski
G
48
S. Mokrousov
G
19
K. Bayramyan
↑ 73'
M
9
M. Mohebi
↑ 88'
M
87
A. Langovich
D
22
D. Semenchuk
↑ 46'
D
91
A. Shamonin
F
17
I. M. Ajasa
F
5
D. Prokhin
D
62
I. Komarov
M
58
D. Shantaliy
↑ 67'
M
67
G. Ignatov
D
FC Orenburg 5-4-1
Starting XI
88
M. Rudakov
🟨 89'
G
18
F. Moufi
D
65
I. Ivashchenko
D
6
J. Palacios
D
4
D. Khotulev
D
32
A. Cantero
↓ 90+3' 🟨 90+3'
D
16
J. Thompson
↓ 73'
M
37
Du Queiroz
↓ 90+6'
M
57
E. Bolotov
M
7
E. Gurluk
↓ 72'
M
19
Alexandre Jesus
↓ 72'
F
Substitutes
95
A. Khodanovich
G
33
I. Kvekveskiri
↑ 90+6'
M
9
M. Savelyev
F
30
G. Guzina
⚽ 85' ↑ 72'
F
3
D. Vedernikov
↑ 90+3' 🟨 90+7'
D
26
E. Tsenov
M
38
A. Kasimov
D
8
D. Puebla
↑ 73'
F
2
S. Poroykov
M
27
R. Golybin
↑ 72'
M
29
A. El Mahraoui
F
59
T. Avanesyan
M
Last matches: FC Rostov
15.07.26
Fri
FC Rostov
Fakel
2
1
W
11.07.26
Fri
FC Rostov
FC Krasnodar
3
3
D
07.07.26
Fri
FC Rostov
Fakel
1
3
L
03.07.26
Fri
FC Rostov
Dinamo Stavropol
0
0
D
17.05.26
Pre
FC Rostov
Zenit
0
1
L
11.05.26
Pre
FC Rostov
Akron
3
1
W
02.05.26
Pre
FC Rostov
Dinamo Makhachkala
2
1
W
21.04.26
Pre
FC Rostov
CSKA Moscow
1
1
D
17.04.26
Pre
FC Rostov
FC Sochi
0
1
L
12.04.26
Pre
FC Rostov
Spartak Moscow
1
1
D
05.04.26
Pre
FC Rostov
Nizhny Novgorod
1
0
W
21.03.26
Pre
FC Rostov
Akhmat
0
1
L
14.03.26
Pre
FC Rostov
Dynamo
0
1
L
07.03.26
Pre
FC Rostov
Baltika
1
1
D
28.02.26
Pre
FC Rostov
FC Krasnodar
1
2
L
21.02.26
Fri
FC Rostov
Spartak Moscow
2
5
L
18.02.26
Fri
FC Rostov
CSKA Moscow
1
3
L
07.02.26
Fri
FC Rostov
Qingdao Youth Island
2
0
W
04.02.26
Fri
FC Rostov
FC Noah
3
0
W
01.02.26
Fri
FC Rostov
Rodina Moskva
0
1
L
Last matches: FC Orenburg
11.07.26
Fri
FC Orenburg
CSKA Moscow
2
0
W
07.07.26
Fri
FC Orenburg
Dynamo
1
2
L
03.07.26
Fri
FC Orenburg
Rubin
2
1
W
25.06.26
Fri
FC Orenburg
FK Neftekhimik
0
1
L
17.05.26
Pre
FC Orenburg
FC Krasnodar
0
3
L
10.05.26
Pre
FC Orenburg
Krylia Sovetov
1
0
W
03.05.26
Pre
FC Orenburg
FC Sochi
1
3
L
22.04.26
Pre
FC Orenburg
Nizhny Novgorod
2
1
W
18.04.26
Pre
FC Orenburg
Lokomotiv
0
1
L
11.04.26
Pre
FC Orenburg
Rubin
0
0
D
04.04.26
Pre
FC Orenburg
Dynamo
3
3
D
22.03.26
Pre
FC Orenburg
Spartak Moscow
0
2
L
13.03.26
Pre
FC Orenburg
Dinamo Makhachkala
0
1
L
08.03.26
Pre
FC Orenburg
Zenit
2
1
W
28.02.26
Pre
FC Orenburg
Akron
2
0
W
20.02.26
Fri
FC Orenburg
Rubin
1
0
W
13.02.26
Fri
FC Orenburg
Kairat Almaty
0
1
L
13.02.26
Fri
FC Orenburg
Alashkert
2
1
W
06.02.26
Fri
FC Orenburg
Bunyodkor
5
1
W
31.01.26
Fri
FC Orenburg
Mornar
1
0
W
H2H: FC Rostov vs FC Orenburg
25.04.26
H2H
FC Rostov
FC Orenburg
0
1
L
05.10.25
H2H
FC Orenburg
FC Rostov
0
1
W
08.03.25
H2H
FC Orenburg
FC Rostov
1
2
W
18.09.24
H2H
FC Rostov
FC Orenburg
3
1
W
28.08.24
H2H
FC Orenburg
FC Rostov
0
1
W
17.08.24
H2H
FC Rostov
FC Orenburg
3
2
W
29.04.24
H2H
FC Rostov
Orenburg
2
1
W
06.11.23
H2H
Orenburg
FC Rostov
1
1
D
10.04.23
H2H
Orenburg
FC Rostov
2
2
D
23.11.22
H2H
Orenburg
FC Rostov
4
2
L
14.09.22
H2H
FC Rostov
Orenburg
3
1
W
07.08.22
H2H
FC Rostov
Orenburg
2
1
W
12.07.20
H2H
Orenburg
FC Rostov
0
0
D
13.07.19
H2H
FC Rostov
Orenburg
2
1
W
20.04.19
H2H
Orenburg
FC Rostov
3
0
L
Last matches: FC Rostov
15.07.26
Fri
FC Rostov
Fakel
2
1
W
03.07.26
Fri
FC Rostov
Dinamo Stavropol
0
0
D
17.05.26
Pre
FC Rostov
Zenit
0
1
L
17.04.26
Pre
FC Rostov
FC Sochi
0
1
L
12.04.26
Pre
FC Rostov
Spartak Moscow
1
1
D
14.03.26
Pre
FC Rostov
Dynamo
0
1
L
07.03.26
Pre
FC Rostov
Baltika
1
1
D
07.02.26
Fri
FC Rostov
Qingdao Youth Island
2
0
W
04.02.26
Fri
FC Rostov
FC Noah
3
0
W
01.02.26
Fri
FC Rostov
Rodina Moskva
0
1
L
24.01.26
Fri
FC Rostov
Lokomotiv
1
1
D
17.01.26
Fri
FC Rostov
Chengdu Better City
3
0
W
06.12.25
Pre
FC Rostov
Rubin
2
0
W
30.11.25
Pre
FC Rostov
Lokomotiv
1
3
L
01.11.25
Pre
FC Rostov
Akron
0
1
L
25.10.25
Pre
FC Rostov
Dinamo Makhachkala
1
1
D
27.09.25
Pre
FC Rostov
FC Krasnodar
0
0
D
14.09.25
Pre
FC Rostov
CSKA Moscow
1
0
W
30.08.25
Pre
FC Rostov
Akhmat
1
1
D
10.08.25
Pre
FC Rostov
Nizhny Novgorod
1
0
W
H2H at home: FC Rostov
25.04.26
H2H
FC Rostov
FC Orenburg
0
1
L
18.09.24
H2H
FC Rostov
FC Orenburg
3
1
W
17.08.24
H2H
FC Rostov
FC Orenburg
3
2
W
29.04.24
H2H
FC Rostov
Orenburg
2
1
W
14.09.22
H2H
FC Rostov
Orenburg
3
1
W
07.08.22
H2H
FC Rostov
Orenburg
2
1
W
13.07.19
H2H
FC Rostov
Orenburg
2
1
W
Last matches: FC Orenburg
07.07.26
Fri
FC Orenburg
Dynamo
1
2
L
03.07.26
Fri
FC Orenburg
Rubin
2
1
W
17.05.26
Pre
FC Orenburg
FC Krasnodar
0
3
L
03.05.26
Pre
FC Orenburg
FC Sochi
1
3
L
11.04.26
Pre
FC Orenburg
Rubin
0
0
D
04.04.26
Pre
FC Orenburg
Dynamo
3
3
D
13.03.26
Pre
FC Orenburg
Dinamo Makhachkala
0
1
L
05.12.25
Pre
FC Orenburg
Akhmat
0
1
L
29.11.25
Pre
FC Orenburg
CSKA Moscow
0
2
L
09.11.25
Pre
FC Orenburg
Lokomotiv
0
1
L
25.10.25
Pre
FC Orenburg
Spartak Moscow
0
1
L
18.10.25
Pre
FC Orenburg
Krylia Sovetov
1
1
D
27.09.25
Pre
FC Orenburg
Zenit
2
5
L
13.09.25
Pre
FC Orenburg
Nizhny Novgorod
1
3
L
17.08.25
Pre
FC Orenburg
Akron
2
1
W
03.08.25
Pre
FC Orenburg
Baltika
2
3
L
H2H away: FC Orenburg
25.04.26
H2H
FC Rostov
FC Orenburg
0
1
W
18.09.24
H2H
FC Rostov
FC Orenburg
3
1
L
17.08.24
H2H
FC Rostov
FC Orenburg
3
2
L

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 20 8 2 53:19 34 68
W W W W D
2 30 20 6 4 60:23 37 66
W L W W W
3 30 14 11 5 54:39 15 53
L W D L D
4 30 15 7 8 47:39 8 52
D W L W L
5 30 15 6 9 44:33 11 51
W W L D D
6 30 11 13 6 38:21 17 46
L L L L D
7 30 12 9 9 51:40 11 45
W W D W L
8 30 11 10 9 29:30 -1 43
D L W D W
9 30 9 10 11 35:39 -4 37
D D W L D
10 30 8 9 13 25:32 -7 33
L W W L D
11 30 8 8 14 35:50 -15 32
W L W W L
12 30 7 8 15 29:44 -15 29
L W L W W
13 30 6 9 15 35:53 -18 27
L W L L L
14 30 5 11 14 19:37 -18 26
W W D D L
15 30 6 5 19 26:50 -24 23
D L L L L
16 30 6 4 20 29:60 -31 22
D L W L W
Relegation Playoffs
Relegation

Missing Players

FC Rostov 0 missing
No missing players data
FC Orenburg 1 missing
-
B. Ovsyannikov
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT