RUSSIA › PREMIER LEAGUE
25.04.2026 11:30
Rostov Arena
Referee: P. Kukuyan
FC Rostov
Match Timeline
FC Orenburg
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
46'
V. Melekhin ↔ D. Semenchuk
FC Rostov
🔄
67'
K. Kuchaev ↔ D. Shantaliy
FC Rostov
🔄
72'
Alexandre Jesus ↔ G. Guzina
FC Orenburg
🔄
72'
E. Gurluk ↔ R. Golybin
FC Orenburg
🔄
73'
E. Golenkov ↔ K. Bayramyan
FC Rostov
🔄
73'
J. Thompson ↔ D. Puebla
FC Orenburg
⚽
85'
G. Guzina
FC Orenburg
🔄
88'
K. Shchetinin ↔ M. Mohebi
FC Rostov
🟨
89'
Maksim Rudakov
FC Orenburg
🟨
90+7'
Danila Vedernikov
FC Orenburg
🟨
90+3'
Alexis Cantero
FC Orenburg
🔄
90+6'
Du Queiroz ↔ I. Kvekveskiri
FC Orenburg
🔄
90+3'
A. Cantero ↔ D. Vedernikov
FC Orenburg

FC Rostov vs FC Orenburg Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 82.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 58.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 54.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
82.9%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
58.4%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
54.5%
- ▥
Probability Distribution
FC Rostov Win 82.9%
Draw 6.2%
FC Orenburg Win 11%
Expected Goals (xG)
FC Rostov1.05
FC Orenburg1.03
Recent Form (Last 5)
FC Rostov FC Rostov
WWDLW
20 GF / 28 GA
FC Orenburg FC Orenburg
WLDWL
26 GF / 38 GA
Key Stats
0.77
Average Goals Scored
1
1.08
Average Goals Conceded
1.46
11
BTTS Yes
13
5
Over 2.5
11
3.62
Shots on Goal
3.96

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FC Rostov FC Rostov 26 matches
FC Orenburg FC Orenburg 26 matches
FC Rostov Statistic FC Orenburg
6 Wins 5
9 Draws 8
11 Losses 13
20 Goals For 26
28 Goals Against 38
0.77 Avg Goals Scored 1
1.08 Avg Goals Conceded 1.46
11 BTTS Yes 13
13 Over 1.5 16
5 Over 2.5 11
3 Over 3.5 8
8 Clean Sheets 4
9 Failed To Score 12
3.62 Shots On Goal 3.96
11.65 Total Shots 12.15
4.35 Corners 5.38
48.2% Ball Possession 47.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward FC Orenburg. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with FC Rostov expected to line up in 3-5-2 and FC Orenburg in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward FC Orenburg having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

FC Rostov Analysis

From their first 26 matches, FC Rostov have collected 27 points and now occupy 10 place in the table. Their overall return of 6 wins, 9 draws, and 11 losses with goals at 19:26 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Ronaldo (5 goals), Timur Suleymanov (4 goals), Aleksey Mironov (2 goals), with creative support from Egor Golenkov (3 assists), M. Mohebi (2 assists), Kirill Shchetinin (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

FC Orenburg Analysis

FC Orenburg are currently 13 in the standings with 23 points from 26 matches. Their overall return of 5 wins, 8 draws, and 13 losses with goals at 24:36 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by J. Thompson (5 goals), E. Gurluk (4 goals), M. Savelyev (3 goals), with creative support from J. Thompson (4 assists), E. Gurluk (1 assists), Du Queiroz (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 8 losses fits a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with B. Ovsyannikov unavailable.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, FC Rostov won 9 times, FC Orenburg won 3 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 25:18 from FC Rostov's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 2.87 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.8%)
Predicted formations: FC Rostov 3-5-2 / FC Orenburg 4-2-3-1
Missing players: FC Rostov 0, FC Orenburg 1
H2H summary: FC Rostov wins 9, draws 3, FC Orenburg wins 3

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 20 8 2 53:19 34 68
W W W W D
2 30 20 6 4 60:23 37 66
W L W W W
3 30 14 11 5 54:39 15 53
L W D L D
4 30 15 7 8 47:39 8 52
D W L W L
5 30 15 6 9 44:33 11 51
W W L D D
6 30 11 13 6 38:21 17 46
L L L L D
7 30 12 9 9 51:40 11 45
W W D W L
8 30 11 10 9 29:30 -1 43
D L W D W
9 30 9 10 11 35:39 -4 37
D D W L D
10 30 8 9 13 25:32 -7 33
L W W L D
11 30 8 8 14 35:50 -15 32
W L W W L
12 30 7 8 15 29:44 -15 29
L W L W W
13 30 6 9 15 35:53 -18 27
L W L L L
14 30 5 11 14 19:37 -18 26
W W D D L
15 30 6 5 19 26:50 -24 23
D L L L L
16 30 6 4 20 29:60 -31 22
D L W L W
Relegation Playoffs
Relegation