RUSSIA PREMIER LEAGUE
05.09.2026 16:00
Rostov Arena
Referee: Aleksei Suchkov, Russia
FC Rostov
Match Timeline
Fakel
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
4'
Houdaifa El Mahasni
Fakel
🟨
45+1'
Oumar Sako
FC Rostov
56'
A. Mironov · Assist: O. Olusegun
FC Rostov
59'
K. Kuchaev · Assist: T. Suleymanov
FC Rostov
64'
O. Sako · Assist: A. Mironov
FC Rostov
🔄
65'
D. Todorovic ↔ A. Bagamaev
Fakel
🔄
65'
A. Sutormin ↔ A. Kovalev
Fakel
🔄
65'
H. El Mhassani ↔ B. Pusi
Fakel
🔄
65'
A. Gnapi Dable ↔ M. Turishchev
Fakel
🟨
72'
Butta Magomedov
Fakel
🔄
76'
O. Olusegun ↔ M. Mukhin
FC Rostov
🔄
80'
A. Gabaraev ↔ A. Koksharov
Fakel
🔄
83'
T. Suleymanov ↔ A. Shamonin
FC Rostov
🔄
83'
I. Komarov ↔ I. Aznaurov
FC Rostov
89'
A. Koksharov
Fakel
🟨
90+1'
Belajdi Pusi
Fakel
🔄
90'
A. Mironov ↔ D. Prokhin
FC Rostov

FC Rostov vs Fakel Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 68.4%
Odds 1.23
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds 2.17
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds 2.56
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
68.4%
1.23
BTTS Yes
71.2%
2.17
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
2.56
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.32
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.89
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00
Probability Distribution
FC Rostov Win 45.4%
Draw 23%
Fakel Win 31.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
FC Rostov1.35
Fakel1.41
Recent Form (Last 5)
FC Rostov FC Rostov
WWDLW
25 GF / 27 GA
Fakel Fakel
WLDWL
22 GF / 20 GA
Key Stats
1.47
Average Goals Scored
1.29
1.59
Average Goals Conceded
1.18
10
BTTS Yes
10
10
Over 2.5
7
4.83
Shots on Goal
2.17

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FC Rostov FC Rostov 17 matches
Fakel Fakel 17 matches
FC Rostov Statistic Fakel
5 Wins 4
5 Draws 7
7 Losses 6
25 Goals For 22
27 Goals Against 20
1.47 Avg Goals Scored 1.29
1.59 Avg Goals Conceded 1.18
10 BTTS Yes 10
13 Over 1.5 10
10 Over 2.5 7
6 Over 3.5 5
5 Clean Sheets 4
4 Failed To Score 5
4.83 Shots On Goal 2.17
15.5 Total Shots 10.5
4.83 Corners 5.5
49.2% Ball Possession 47.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. FC Rostov arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 12 with 5 points compared to Fakel in 16 on 2, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Fakel. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with FC Rostov expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Fakel in 5-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Fakel having the stronger overall control. Fakel arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly.

FC Rostov Analysis

FC Rostov are currently 12 in the standings with 5 points from 5 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 1 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, while the 7:9 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Timur Suleymanov (2 goals), Andrey Langovich (1 goals), Viktor Melekhin (1 goals), with creative support from Andrey Langovich (2 assists), Konstantin Kuchaev (2 assists), Olakunle Olusegun (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 0 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Fakel Analysis

With 2 points from 5 games and a place of 16, Fakel still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, together with goals at 3:6, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Vyacheslav Yakimov (1 goals), Alexey Sutormin (1 goals), Maksim Turishchev (1 goals), with creative support from Nikolay Giorgobiani (1 assists), Belajdi Pusi (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 0 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, FC Rostov won 8 times, Fakel won 3 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:10 from FC Rostov's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.42 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (77%)
Predicted formations: FC Rostov 4-3-3 / Fakel 5-4-1
Missing players: FC Rostov 1, Fakel 1
H2H summary: FC Rostov wins 8, draws 1, Fakel wins 3

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 6 3 0 14:7 7 21
D D D W W
2 9 6 1 2 14:8 6 19
W W W W W
3 9 5 4 0 15:9 6 19
W D W D W
4 9 6 1 2 16:7 9 19
W W L D W
5 9 6 0 3 19:9 10 18
W W L W L
6 9 2 6 1 12:11 1 12
D D D W D
7 9 4 0 5 15:16 -1 12
L L W L L
8 9 3 2 4 14:12 2 11
L D L W D
9 9 2 5 2 13:14 -1 11
D W D D W
10 9 2 4 3 13:13 0 10
L W D D W
11 9 1 6 2 7:10 -3 9
D L D D D
12 9 2 2 5 10:17 -7 8
L L W L L
13 9 1 5 3 11:18 -7 8
W D D D L
14 9 1 4 4 8:11 -3 7
D L W L L
15 9 1 2 6 10:22 -12 5
D L L L L
16
Fakel Away
9 0 3 6 6:13 -7 3
L D L L D
Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation - FNL