PORTUGAL PRIMEIRA LIGA
19.04.2026 19:30
Estádio Do Dragão
Referee: C. Pereira
FC Porto
Match Timeline
Tondela
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
VAR
13'
Victor Froholdt
FC Porto
🟨
19'
Jakub Kiwior
FC Porto
🟨
21'
Maranhão
Tondela
🟨
35'
Rodrigo Mora
FC Porto
VAR
38'
Rodrigo Mora
FC Porto
🟨
45+3'
Joe Hodge
Tondela
🔄
46'
J. Kiwior ↔ P. Rosario
FC Porto
🔄
46'
R. Mora ↔ G. Veiga
FC Porto
48'
G. Veiga · Assist: D. Gul
FC Porto
🟨
50'
Christian Marques
Tondela
🔄
62'
Zaidu ↔ Thiago Silva
FC Porto
🔄
63'
M. Ouattara ↔ S. Sithole
Tondela
🔄
63'
J. Hodge ↔ M. Aiko
Tondela
65'
V. Froholdt
FC Porto
🔄
70'
O. Pietuszewski ↔ William Gomes
FC Porto
🔄
70'
B. Medina ↔ J. Afonso
Tondela
🔄
70'
Pedro Maranhao ↔ A. van der Heide
Tondela
🔄
78'
Rony Lopes ↔ H. Felix
Tondela
🟨
80'
Siphephelo Sithole
Tondela
🟨
84'
Alberto Costa
FC Porto
🔄
88'
D. Gul ↔ S. Fofana
FC Porto
🟨
90'
Gabri Veiga
FC Porto
🟨
90+3'
Rodrigo Conceição
Tondela
🟨
90'
Hugo Félix
Tondela

FC Porto vs Tondela Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 90%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 69.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 79.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
90%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
69.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
79.3%
-
Probability Distribution
FC Porto Win 90%
Draw 0%
Tondela Win 10%
Expected Goals (xG)
FC Porto1.78
Tondela0.69
Recent Form (Last 5)
FC Porto FC Porto
WWDLW
77 GF / 24 GA
Tondela Tondela
WLDWL
21 GF / 46 GA
Key Stats
1.88
Average Goals Scored
0.75
0.59
Average Goals Conceded
1.64
18
BTTS Yes
10
22
Over 2.5
15
5.22
Shots on Goal
3.39

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FC Porto FC Porto 41 matches
Tondela Tondela 28 matches
FC Porto Statistic Tondela
31 Wins 4
7 Draws 9
3 Losses 15
77 Goals For 21
24 Goals Against 46
1.88 Avg Goals Scored 0.75
0.59 Avg Goals Conceded 1.64
18 BTTS Yes 10
31 Over 1.5 18
22 Over 2.5 15
8 Over 3.5 8
21 Clean Sheets 5
3 Failed To Score 16
5.22 Shots On Goal 3.39
14.2 Total Shots 10.32
5.34 Corners 3.93
53.7% Ball Possession 43%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around FC Porto's more proactive style and Tondela's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. FC Porto arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 76 points compared to Tondela in 17 on 21, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Tondela. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

FC Porto Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 76 points from 29 games, FC Porto bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 24 wins, 4 draws, and 1 defeats plus a goal balance of 59:14, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by Samu (13 goals), William Gomes (8 goals), B. Sainz (5 goals), with creative support from G. Veiga (7 assists), A. Costa (7 assists), V. Froholdt (6 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, their record of 11 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Tondela Analysis

Tondela approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 17 with 21 points from 28 matches. Across the season they have posted 4 wins, 9 draws, and 15 defeats, and the 19:44 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Pedro Henryque (6 goals), Bebeto (2 goals), I. Cavaleiro (2 goals), with creative support from Rony Lopes (2 assists), Pedro Henryque (1 assists), Joe Hodge (1 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 8 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, FC Porto won 15 times, Tondela won 0 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 37:7 from FC Porto's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.93 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: FC Porto 4-3-3 / Tondela 4-3-3
H2H summary: FC Porto wins 15, draws 0, Tondela wins 0

Standings

Primeira Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 28 4 2 66:18 48 88
W L W W W
2 34 25 7 2 89:24 65 82
W W W D D
3 34 23 11 0 74:25 49 80
W D D W W
4 34 16 11 7 64:36 28 59
D D D L W
5 34 15 11 8 42:29 13 56
W D D W D
6 34 13 11 10 47:38 9 50
L L D W L
7 34 12 7 15 37:49 -12 43
D L W L W
8 34 12 6 16 47:64 -17 42
W W D L W
9 34 12 6 16 39:51 -12 42
L L L W W
10 34 10 9 15 54:57 -3 39
L D D L L
11 34 10 9 15 35:52 -17 39
L D L W L
12 34 8 12 14 35:57 -22 36
D L D L D
13 34 9 9 16 32:41 -9 36
L W D W D
14 34 9 7 18 37:45 -8 34
W L L W W
15 34 6 12 16 38:56 -18 30
D D L L L
16 34 6 12 16 31:57 -26 30
D W L L L
17 34 6 10 18 27:55 -28 28
L W W D L
18 34 3 12 19 27:67 -40 21
D W W D D
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2