FC Porto vs Tondela Prediction & Match Analysis
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home Win |
90%
|
- | |
| BTTS | BTTS Yes |
69.1%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
79.3%
|
- |
FC Porto
Tondela
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
FC Porto
41 matches
Tondela
28 matches
| FC Porto | Statistic | Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | Wins | 4 |
| 7 | Draws | 9 |
| 3 | Losses | 15 |
| 77 | Goals For | 21 |
| 24 | Goals Against | 46 |
| 1.88 | Avg Goals Scored | 0.75 |
| 0.59 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.64 |
| 18 | BTTS Yes | 10 |
| 31 | Over 1.5 | 18 |
| 22 | Over 2.5 | 15 |
| 8 | Over 3.5 | 8 |
| 21 | Clean Sheets | 5 |
| 3 | Failed To Score | 16 |
| 5.22 | Shots On Goal | 3.39 |
| 14.2 | Total Shots | 10.32 |
| 5.34 | Corners | 3.93 |
| 53.7% | Ball Possession | 43% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around FC Porto's more proactive style and Tondela's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. FC Porto arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 76 points compared to Tondela in 17 on 21, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Tondela. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.
Operating from 1 place with 76 points from 29 games, FC Porto bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 24 wins, 4 draws, and 1 defeats plus a goal balance of 59:14, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by Samu (13 goals), William Gomes (8 goals), B. Sainz (5 goals), with creative support from G. Veiga (7 assists), A. Costa (7 assists), V. Froholdt (6 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, their record of 11 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.
Tondela approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 17 with 21 points from 28 matches. Across the season they have posted 4 wins, 9 draws, and 15 defeats, and the 19:44 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Pedro Henryque (6 goals), Bebeto (2 goals), I. Cavaleiro (2 goals), with creative support from Rony Lopes (2 assists), Pedro Henryque (1 assists), Joe Hodge (1 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 8 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, FC Porto won 15 times, Tondela won 0 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 37:7 from FC Porto's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.93 goals per game.
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
FC Porto
Home
|
34 | 28 | 4 | 2 | 66:18 | 48 | 88 |
W
L
W
W
W
|
| 2 | 34 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 89:24 | 65 | 82 |
W
W
W
D
D
|
|
| 3 | 34 | 23 | 11 | 0 | 74:25 | 49 | 80 |
W
D
D
W
W
|
|
| 4 | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 64:36 | 28 | 59 |
D
D
D
L
W
|
|
| 5 | 34 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 42:29 | 13 | 56 |
W
D
D
W
D
|
|
| 6 | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 47:38 | 9 | 50 |
L
L
D
W
L
|
|
| 7 | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 37:49 | -12 | 43 |
D
L
W
L
W
|
|
| 8 | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 47:64 | -17 | 42 |
W
W
D
L
W
|
|
| 9 | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 39:51 | -12 | 42 |
L
L
L
W
W
|
|
| 10 | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 54:57 | -3 | 39 |
L
D
D
L
L
|
|
| 11 | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 35:52 | -17 | 39 |
L
D
L
W
L
|
|
| 12 | 34 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 35:57 | -22 | 36 |
D
L
D
L
D
|
|
| 13 | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 32:41 | -9 | 36 |
L
W
D
W
D
|
|
| 14 | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 37:45 | -8 | 34 |
W
L
L
W
W
|
|
| 15 | 34 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 38:56 | -18 | 30 |
D
D
L
L
L
|
|
| 16 | 34 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 31:57 | -26 | 30 |
D
W
L
L
L
|
|
| 17 |
Tondela
Away
|
34 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 27:55 | -28 | 28 |
L
W
W
D
L
|
| 18 | 34 | 3 | 12 | 19 | 27:67 | -40 | 21 |
D
W
W
D
D
|