RUSSIA PREMIER LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Gazovik Stadium
Referee: A. Frolov
FC Orenburg
Match Timeline
Nizhny Novgorod
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
40'
Bogdan Ovsyannikov
FC Orenburg
41'
A. Balboa
Nizhny Novgorod
🟨
47'
Andrey Ivlev
Nizhny Novgorod
🟨
55'
Matvey Urvantsev
Nizhny Novgorod
🔄
57'
E. Tsenov ↔ A. Cantero
FC Orenburg
VAR
66'
Ilya Kirsch
Nizhny Novgorod
🔄
67'
M. Savelyev ↔ Alexandre Jesus
FC Orenburg
🔄
68'
D. Puebla ↔ R. Golybin
FC Orenburg
🟨
69'
Adrian Balboa
Nizhny Novgorod
🔄
69'
M. Urvantsev ↔ D. Lesovoy
Nizhny Novgorod
🔄
70'
A. Ivlev ↔ N. Ermakov
Nizhny Novgorod
🔄
70'
A. Balboa ↔ J. Castillo
Nizhny Novgorod
79'
Alexandre Jesus · Assist: J. Thompson
FC Orenburg
82'
Alexandre Jesus · Assist: J. Thompson
FC Orenburg
🟨
84'
Alexis Cantero
FC Orenburg
🔄
85'
↔ V. Grulev
Nizhny Novgorod
🔄
89'
E. Bolotov ↔ I. Kvekveskiri
FC Orenburg
🔄
89'
Du Queiroz ↔ R. Kul
FC Orenburg
🔄
90+2'
L. Ticic ↔ A. Sidorenko
Nizhny Novgorod

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 54.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 61.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 65.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
54.8%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
61.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
65.8%
-
Probability Distribution
FC Orenburg Win 54.8%
Draw 17.6%
Nizhny Novgorod Win 27.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
FC Orenburg1.22
Nizhny Novgorod1.1
Recent Form (Last 5)
FC Orenburg FC Orenburg
WWDLW
24 GF / 37 GA
Nizhny Novgorod Nizhny Novgorod
WLDWL
21 GF / 40 GA
Key Stats
0.96
Average Goals Scored
0.84
1.48
Average Goals Conceded
1.6
12
BTTS Yes
9
10
Over 2.5
13
3.88
Shots on Goal
3.96

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FC Orenburg FC Orenburg 25 matches
Nizhny Novgorod Nizhny Novgorod 25 matches
FC Orenburg Statistic Nizhny Novgorod
4 Wins 6
8 Draws 4
13 Losses 15
24 Goals For 21
37 Goals Against 40
0.96 Avg Goals Scored 0.84
1.48 Avg Goals Conceded 1.6
12 BTTS Yes 9
15 Over 1.5 19
10 Over 2.5 13
8 Over 3.5 4
4 Clean Sheets 5
12 Failed To Score 13
3.88 Shots On Goal 3.96
11.92 Total Shots 11.28
5.2 Corners 4.44
47.5% Ball Possession 43.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with FC Orenburg expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Nizhny Novgorod in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Nizhny Novgorod having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Nizhny Novgorod. FC Orenburg have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

FC Orenburg Analysis

FC Orenburg sit 15 with 20 points after 25 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 4 wins, 8 draws, and 13 losses, together with goals at 24:36, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through J. Thompson (5 goals), E. Gurluk (4 goals), M. Savelyev (3 goals), with creative support from J. Thompson (2 assists), E. Gurluk (1 assists), Du Queiroz (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with G. Guzina, F. Moufi unavailable.

Nizhny Novgorod Analysis

Nizhny Novgorod sit 14 with 22 points after 25 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 15 losses, together with goals at 20:39, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Juan Manuel Boselli (8 goals), O. Olusegun (5 goals), Daniil Lesovoy (2 goals), with creative support from Juan Manuel Boselli (2 assists), Egor Smelov (2 assists), O. Olusegun (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 2 wins, 1 draws, and 9 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach. Although they are without A. Ektov, S. Karic, O. Olusegun, the biggest concern is that one of those absentees also contributes heavily in both finishing and chance creation.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, FC Orenburg won 9 times, Nizhny Novgorod won 3 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:13 from FC Orenburg's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.62 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (82.5%)
Predicted formations: FC Orenburg 4-2-3-1 / Nizhny Novgorod 4-3-3
Missing players: FC Orenburg 2, Nizhny Novgorod 3
H2H summary: FC Orenburg wins 9, draws 1, Nizhny Novgorod wins 3
Stats
FC Orenburg FC Orenburg
Nizhny Novgorod Nizhny Novgorod
Shots on Goal
6
Shots on Goal
1
Shots off Goal
10
Shots off Goal
2
Blocked Shots
2
Blocked Shots
2
10 Corner Kicks 4
11 Fouls 16
0 Offsides 2
55% Ball Possession 45%
18 Total Shots 5
6 Shots on Goal 1
10 Shots off Goal 2
2 Blocked Shots 2
15 Shots insidebox 2
3 Shots outsidebox 3
0 Goalkeeper Saves 4
319 Total passes 264
224 Passes accurate 171
0 expected_goals 0
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

FC Orenburg
Formation
Nizhny Novgorod
B. Ovsyannikov
B. Ovsyannikov
F. Moufi
F. Moufi
J. Palacios
J. Palacios
D. Khotulev
D. Khotulev
E. Tsenov
E. Tsenov
Du Queiroz
Du Queiroz
E. Bolotov
E. Bolotov
J. Thompson
🎯
J. Thompson
D. Puebla
D. Puebla
E. Gurluk
E. Gurluk
M. Savelyev
M. Savelyev
N. Medvedev
N. Medvedev
M. Shnaptsev
M. Shnaptsev
V. Aleksandrov
V. Aleksandrov
I. Kirsch
I. Kirsch
Y. Koledin
Y. Koledin
L. Ticic
L. Ticic
A. Ivlev
A. Ivlev
E. Smelov
E. Smelov
R. Cephas
R. Cephas
A. Balboa
A. Balboa
M. Urvantsev
M. Urvantsev
FC Orenburg 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
B. Ovsyannikov
🟨 40'
G
18
F. Moufi
D
6
J. Palacios
D
4
D. Khotulev
D
26
E. Tsenov
↓ 57'
D
37
Du Queiroz
↓ 89'
M
57
E. Bolotov
↓ 89'
M
16
J. Thompson
🎯 79' 🎯 82'
M
8
D. Puebla
↓ 68'
M
7
E. Gurluk
M
9
M. Savelyev
↓ 67'
F
Substitutes
88
M. Rudakov
G
33
I. Kvekveskiri
↑ 89'
M
3
D. Vedernikov
D
19
Alexandre Jesus
⚽ 79' ⚽ 82' ↑ 67'
F
38
A. Kasimov
D
32
A. Cantero
↑ 57' 🟨 84'
D
2
S. Poroykov
M
27
R. Golybin
↑ 68'
M
29
A. El Mahraoui
F
65
I. Ivashchenko
M
78
R. Kul
↑ 89'
M
22
P. Gorelov
M
Nizhny Novgorod 4-3-3
Starting XI
30
N. Medvedev
G
70
M. Shnaptsev
D
2
V. Aleksandrov
D
4
I. Kirsch
D
3
Y. Koledin
D
29
L. Ticic
↓ 90+2'
M
77
A. Ivlev
↓ 70' 🟨 47'
M
17
E. Smelov
M
21
R. Cephas
F
10
A. Balboa
⚽ 41' ↓ 70' 🟨 69'
F
14
M. Urvantsev
↓ 69' 🟨 55'
F
Substitutes
1
V. Lukyanov
G
51
E. Koshkin
G
78
N. Kalinski
M
19
N. Ermakov
↑ 70'
M
8
M. Maiga
M
88
D. Lesovoy
↑ 69'
F
27
V. Grulev
↑ 85'
F
32
V. Pigas
D
23
J. Castillo
↑ 70'
D
16
Y. Krashevskiy
D
69
A. Sidorenko
↑ 90+2'
M
Last matches: FC Orenburg
11.07.26
Fri
FC Orenburg
CSKA Moscow
2
0
W
07.07.26
Fri
FC Orenburg
Dynamo
1
2
L
03.07.26
Fri
FC Orenburg
Rubin
2
1
W
25.06.26
Fri
FC Orenburg
FK Neftekhimik
0
1
L
17.05.26
Pre
FC Orenburg
FC Krasnodar
0
3
L
10.05.26
Pre
FC Orenburg
Krylia Sovetov
1
0
W
03.05.26
Pre
FC Orenburg
FC Sochi
1
3
L
25.04.26
Pre
FC Orenburg
FC Rostov
1
0
W
18.04.26
Pre
FC Orenburg
Lokomotiv
0
1
L
11.04.26
Pre
FC Orenburg
Rubin
0
0
D
04.04.26
Pre
FC Orenburg
Dynamo
3
3
D
22.03.26
Pre
FC Orenburg
Spartak Moscow
0
2
L
13.03.26
Pre
FC Orenburg
Dinamo Makhachkala
0
1
L
08.03.26
Pre
FC Orenburg
Zenit
2
1
W
28.02.26
Pre
FC Orenburg
Akron
2
0
W
20.02.26
Fri
FC Orenburg
Rubin
1
0
W
13.02.26
Fri
FC Orenburg
Kairat Almaty
0
1
L
13.02.26
Fri
FC Orenburg
Alashkert
2
1
W
06.02.26
Fri
FC Orenburg
Bunyodkor
5
1
W
31.01.26
Fri
FC Orenburg
Mornar
1
0
W
Last matches: Nizhny Novgorod
04.07.26
Fri
Nizhny Novgorod
Dynamo
1
2
L
29.06.26
Fri
Nizhny Novgorod
Tekstilshchik
6
1
W
21.06.26
Fri
Nizhny Novgorod
FC UFA
2
1
W
16.06.26
Fri
Nizhny Novgorod
FC UFA
2
2
D
17.05.26
Pre
Nizhny Novgorod
Rubin
2
2
D
11.05.26
Pre
Nizhny Novgorod
CSKA Moscow
1
2
L
03.05.26
Pre
Nizhny Novgorod
Akhmat
0
2
L
26.04.26
Pre
Nizhny Novgorod
Spartak Moscow
1
2
L
18.04.26
Pre
Nizhny Novgorod
Dynamo
1
1
D
11.04.26
Pre
Nizhny Novgorod
Baltika
2
2
D
05.04.26
Pre
Nizhny Novgorod
FC Rostov
0
1
L
21.03.26
Pre
Nizhny Novgorod
FC Krasnodar
0
5
L
15.03.26
Pre
Nizhny Novgorod
Krylia Sovetov
3
0
W
07.03.26
Pre
Nizhny Novgorod
FC Sochi
2
1
W
28.02.26
Pre
Nizhny Novgorod
Lokomotiv
1
2
L
13.02.26
Fri
Nizhny Novgorod
FK Tobol Kostanay
2
1
W
07.02.26
Fri
Nizhny Novgorod
Enisey
0
0
D
07.02.26
Fri
Nizhny Novgorod
Torpedo Moskva
2
4
L
17.01.26
Fri
Nizhny Novgorod
Chelyabinsk
0
1
L
07.12.25
Pre
Nizhny Novgorod
Dinamo Makhachkala
1
0
W
H2H: FC Orenburg vs Nizhny Novgorod
22.04.26
H2H
FC Orenburg
Nizhny Novgorod
2
1
W
13.02.26
H2H
FC Orenburg
Nizhny Novgorod
0
0
D
13.09.25
H2H
Nizhny Novgorod
FC Orenburg
3
1
L
04.04.25
H2H
Nizhny Novgorod
FC Orenburg
1
2
W
27.09.24
H2H
FC Orenburg
Nizhny Novgorod
1
2
L
14.04.24
H2H
Orenburg
Nizhny Novgorod
3
1
L
24.09.23
H2H
Nizhny Novgorod
Orenburg
3
1
L
30.04.23
H2H
Orenburg
Nizhny Novgorod
1
0
L
16.02.23
H2H
Orenburg
Nizhny Novgorod
2
1
L
18.09.22
H2H
Nizhny Novgorod
Orenburg
0
2
W
24.04.21
H2H
Orenburg
Nizhny Novgorod
2
1
L
28.10.20
H2H
Nizhny Novgorod
Orenburg
0
0
D
17.03.18
H2H
Orenburg
Nizhny Novgorod
3
0
L
27.08.17
H2H
Nizhny Novgorod
Orenburg
0
1
W
Last matches: FC Orenburg
11.07.26
Fri
FC Orenburg
CSKA Moscow
2
0
W
25.06.26
Fri
FC Orenburg
FK Neftekhimik
0
1
L
10.05.26
Pre
FC Orenburg
Krylia Sovetov
1
0
W
18.04.26
Pre
FC Orenburg
Lokomotiv
0
1
L
22.03.26
Pre
FC Orenburg
Spartak Moscow
0
2
L
08.03.26
Pre
FC Orenburg
Zenit
2
1
W
28.02.26
Pre
FC Orenburg
Akron
2
0
W
20.02.26
Fri
FC Orenburg
Rubin
1
0
W
13.02.26
Fri
FC Orenburg
Kairat Almaty
0
1
L
13.02.26
Fri
FC Orenburg
Alashkert
2
1
W
06.02.26
Fri
FC Orenburg
Bunyodkor
5
1
W
31.01.26
Fri
FC Orenburg
Mornar
1
0
W
19.01.26
Fri
FC Orenburg
Surkhon
4
1
W
22.11.25
Pre
FC Orenburg
Baltika
0
0
D
02.11.25
Pre
FC Orenburg
FC Sochi
3
1
W
05.10.25
Pre
FC Orenburg
FC Rostov
0
1
L
21.09.25
Pre
FC Orenburg
Dynamo
1
3
L
30.08.25
Pre
FC Orenburg
Rubin
2
2
D
22.08.25
Pre
FC Orenburg
Akhmat
2
2
D
10.08.25
Pre
FC Orenburg
FC Krasnodar
0
1
L
H2H at home: FC Orenburg
22.04.26
H2H
FC Orenburg
Nizhny Novgorod
2
1
W
13.02.26
H2H
FC Orenburg
Nizhny Novgorod
0
0
D
27.09.24
H2H
FC Orenburg
Nizhny Novgorod
1
2
L
Last matches: Nizhny Novgorod
04.07.26
Fri
Nizhny Novgorod
Dynamo
1
2
L
17.05.26
Pre
Nizhny Novgorod
Rubin
2
2
D
03.05.26
Pre
Nizhny Novgorod
Akhmat
0
2
L
11.04.26
Pre
Nizhny Novgorod
Baltika
2
2
D
21.03.26
Pre
Nizhny Novgorod
FC Krasnodar
0
5
L
28.02.26
Pre
Nizhny Novgorod
Lokomotiv
1
2
L
07.02.26
Fri
Nizhny Novgorod
Torpedo Moskva
2
4
L
07.12.25
Pre
Nizhny Novgorod
Dinamo Makhachkala
1
0
W
29.11.25
Pre
Nizhny Novgorod
Akron
2
1
W
31.10.25
Pre
Nizhny Novgorod
CSKA Moscow
0
2
L
05.10.25
Pre
Nizhny Novgorod
FC Sochi
1
2
L
28.09.25
Pre
Nizhny Novgorod
Spartak Moscow
0
3
L
30.08.25
Pre
Nizhny Novgorod
Zenit
0
2
L
23.08.25
Pre
Nizhny Novgorod
Dynamo
0
3
L
10.08.25
Pre
Nizhny Novgorod
FC Rostov
0
1
L
25.07.25
Pre
Nizhny Novgorod
Krylia Sovetov
0
2
L
H2H away: Nizhny Novgorod
22.04.26
H2H
FC Orenburg
Nizhny Novgorod
2
1
L
13.02.26
H2H
FC Orenburg
Nizhny Novgorod
0
0
D
27.09.24
H2H
FC Orenburg
Nizhny Novgorod
1
2
W
14.04.24
H2H
Orenburg
Nizhny Novgorod
3
1
L
30.04.23
H2H
Orenburg
Nizhny Novgorod
1
0
L
16.02.23
H2H
Orenburg
Nizhny Novgorod
2
1
L
24.04.21
H2H
Orenburg
Nizhny Novgorod
2
1
L
17.03.18
H2H
Orenburg
Nizhny Novgorod
3
0
L

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 20 8 2 53:19 34 68
W W W W D
2 30 20 6 4 60:23 37 66
W L W W W
3 30 14 11 5 54:39 15 53
L W D L D
4 30 15 7 8 47:39 8 52
D W L W L
5 30 15 6 9 44:33 11 51
W W L D D
6 30 11 13 6 38:21 17 46
L L L L D
7 30 12 9 9 51:40 11 45
W W D W L
8 30 11 10 9 29:30 -1 43
D L W D W
9 30 9 10 11 35:39 -4 37
D D W L D
10 30 8 9 13 25:32 -7 33
L W W L D
11 30 8 8 14 35:50 -15 32
W L W W L
12 30 7 8 15 29:44 -15 29
L W L W W
13 30 6 9 15 35:53 -18 27
L W L L L
14 30 5 11 14 19:37 -18 26
W W D D L
15 30 6 5 19 26:50 -24 23
D L L L L
16 30 6 4 20 29:60 -31 22
D L W L W
Relegation Playoffs
Relegation

Missing Players

FC Orenburg 2 missing
-
G. Guzina
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT
-
F. Moufi
Questionable Injury
OUT
Nizhny Novgorod 3 missing
-
A. Ektov
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
S. Karic
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT
-
O. Olusegun
Missing Fixture Red Card
OUT