SWITZERLAND SUPER LEAGUE
03.05.2026 14:30
Stadio di Cornaredo
Referee: J. von Mandach
FC Lugano
Match Timeline
BSC Young Boys
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
14'
Edimilson Fernandes
BSC Young Boys
🟨
23'
Loris Benito
BSC Young Boys
🔄
46'
A. Virginius ↔ E. Colley
BSC Young Boys
🟨
58'
Gregory Wüthrich
BSC Young Boys
🔄
60'
K. Behrens ↔ G. Koutsias
FC Lugano
🔄
61'
Y. Cimignani ↔ E. Alioski
FC Lugano
🔄
65'
Y. Valery ↔ S. Janko
BSC Young Boys
🔄
65'
A. Sanches ↔ D. Males
BSC Young Boys
🔄
76'
H. Delcroix ↔ D. Kelvin
FC Lugano
🔄
76'
U. Bislimi ↔ M. Bottani
FC Lugano
🔄
78'
S. Essende ↔ C. Bedia
BSC Young Boys
🟨
80'
Saidy Janko
BSC Young Boys
🔄
80'
A. Gigovic ↔ D. Pech
BSC Young Boys
84'
R. Steffen · Assist: A. Grgic
FC Lugano
🟨
85'
Renato Steffen
FC Lugano
🔄
87'
R. Steffen ↔ A. Kendouci
FC Lugano

FC Lugano vs BSC Young Boys Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 52.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 26%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 47.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
52.2%
-
BTTS BTTS No
26%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
47.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
FC Lugano Win 52.2%
Draw 12.2%
BSC Young Boys Win 35.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
FC Lugano1.6
BSC Young Boys1.58
Recent Form (Last 5)
FC Lugano FC Lugano
WWDLW
55 GF / 46 GA
BSC Young Boys BSC Young Boys
WLDWL
80 GF / 80 GA
Key Stats
1.45
Average Goals Scored
1.82
1.21
Average Goals Conceded
1.82
22
BTTS Yes
29
17
Over 2.5
31
4.29
Shots on Goal
5.05

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FC Lugano FC Lugano 38 matches
BSC Young Boys BSC Young Boys 44 matches
FC Lugano Statistic BSC Young Boys
18 Wins 18
10 Draws 9
10 Losses 17
55 Goals For 80
46 Goals Against 80
1.45 Avg Goals Scored 1.82
1.21 Avg Goals Conceded 1.82
22 BTTS Yes 29
26 Over 1.5 39
17 Over 2.5 31
11 Over 3.5 21
11 Clean Sheets 10
7 Failed To Score 7
4.29 Shots On Goal 5.05
12.42 Total Shots 13.73
3.58 Corners 5.05
53.3% Ball Possession 53.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with FC Lugano expected to line up in 3-4-3 and BSC Young Boys in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward BSC Young Boys having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring BSC Young Boys.

FC Lugano Analysis

FC Lugano come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 3 place with 60 points after 34 matches. The return of 17 wins, 9 draws, and 8 defeats, together with goals at 51:38, reflects good form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking edge comes through Kevin Behrens (11 goals), A. Grgic (7 goals), R. Steffen (6 goals), with creative support from D. Dos Santos (10 assists), A. Grgic (5 assists), R. Steffen (3 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. At home, their record of 10 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

BSC Young Boys Analysis

From their first 34 matches, BSC Young Boys have collected 48 points and now occupy 6 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 13 wins, 9 draws, and 12 losses, while the 66:62 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Chris Bedia (16 goals), C. Fassnacht (15 goals), A. Sanches (9 goals), with creative support from C. Fassnacht (7 assists), A. Virginius (7 assists), A. Sanches (5 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the record of 5 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, FC Lugano won 5 times, BSC Young Boys won 5 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:20 from FC Lugano's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.73 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.9%)
Predicted formations: FC Lugano 3-4-3 / BSC Young Boys 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: FC Lugano wins 5, draws 5, BSC Young Boys wins 5

Standings

Super League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 33 24 2 7 75:37 38 74
D L L L L
2 33 17 9 7 64:40 24 60
D W W L W
3 33 16 9 8 50:38 12 57
W D L W W
4 33 15 8 10 51:45 6 53
L L L W L
5 33 13 13 7 51:35 16 52
D D W W W
6 33 13 9 11 65:60 5 48
D W W L L
7 33 10 10 13 64:61 3 40
W W D W W
8 33 9 13 11 57:57 0 40
W W D W W
9 33 10 9 14 47:57 -10 39
L L L L W
10 33 10 4 19 45:63 -18 34
L L W D L
11 33 6 9 18 40:65 -25 27
W D W W L
12 33 4 7 22 35:86 -51 19
L L W D L
Championship round
Relegation Round