RUSSIA PREMIER LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Ozon Arena
Referee: A. Prokopov
FC Krasnodar
Match Timeline
FC Orenburg
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
15'
Danila Khotulev
FC Orenburg
36'
K. Lenini · Assist: G. Gonzalez
FC Krasnodar
🟨
40'
Jhon Córdoba
FC Krasnodar
🟨
40'
Jordhy Thompson
FC Orenburg
🔄
57'
D. Rybchinskiy ↔ P. Gorelov
FC Orenburg
🔄
58'
R. Golybin ↔ D. Puebla
FC Orenburg
63'
J. Cordoba · Assist: Joao Batxi
FC Krasnodar
🔄
64'
Douglas Augusto ↔ A. Chernikov
FC Krasnodar
🔄
69'
G. Guzina ↔ Alexandre Jesus
FC Orenburg
🔄
69'
Du Queiroz ↔ R. Kul
FC Orenburg
🟨
74'
Jhon Palacios
FC Orenburg
🔄
77'
N. Krivtsov ↔ J. Boselli
FC Krasnodar
🔄
84'
G. Gonzalez ↔ V. Paltsev
FC Krasnodar
🔄
84'
Diego Costa ↔ Jubal Junior
FC Krasnodar
🔄
84'
Joao Batxi ↔ M. D. Cobnan
FC Krasnodar
🔄
84'
E. Bolotov ↔ I. Kvekveskiri
FC Orenburg
88'
E. Spertsyan · Assist: J. Cordoba
FC Krasnodar

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 82.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 17.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 25.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
82.7%
-
BTTS BTTS No
17.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
25.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
FC Krasnodar Win 82.7%
Draw 0%
FC Orenburg Win 17.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
FC Krasnodar1.75
FC Orenburg0.92
Recent Form (Last 5)
FC Krasnodar FC Krasnodar
WWDLW
57 GF / 23 GA
FC Orenburg FC Orenburg
WLDWL
29 GF / 41 GA
Key Stats
1.97
Average Goals Scored
1
0.79
Average Goals Conceded
1.41
16
BTTS Yes
14
16
Over 2.5
12
4.9
Shots on Goal
3.86

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FC Krasnodar FC Krasnodar 29 matches
FC Orenburg FC Orenburg 29 matches
FC Krasnodar Statistic FC Orenburg
19 Wins 7
6 Draws 8
4 Losses 14
57 Goals For 29
23 Goals Against 41
1.97 Avg Goals Scored 1
0.79 Avg Goals Conceded 1.41
16 BTTS Yes 14
23 Over 1.5 17
16 Over 2.5 12
6 Over 3.5 9
12 Clean Sheets 6
2 Failed To Score 12
4.9 Shots On Goal 3.86
15.48 Total Shots 12.31
5.17 Corners 5.41
59.6% Ball Possession 47.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around FC Krasnodar's more proactive style and FC Orenburg's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward FC Orenburg. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. FC Krasnodar arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 63 points compared to FC Orenburg in 11 on 29, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

FC Krasnodar Analysis

Operating from 2 place with 63 points from 29 games, FC Krasnodar bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 19 wins, 6 draws, and 4 defeats plus a goal balance of 57:23, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by J. Cordoba (16 goals), E. Spertsyan (12 goals), Nikita Krivtsov (7 goals), with creative support from E. Spertsyan (16 assists), J. Cordoba (5 assists), Joao Batxi (4 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, they have managed 11 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

FC Orenburg Analysis

FC Orenburg are currently 11 in the standings with 29 points from 29 matches. Their overall return of 7 wins, 8 draws, and 14 losses with goals at 29:41 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by J. Thompson (5 goals), E. Gurluk (4 goals), Alexandre Jesus (3 goals), with creative support from J. Thompson (5 assists), Du Queiroz (2 assists), E. Gurluk (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 3 draws, and 9 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, FC Krasnodar won 9 times, FC Orenburg won 2 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 28:13 from FC Krasnodar's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.73 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: FC Krasnodar 4-2-3-1 / FC Orenburg 4-2-3-1
Missing players: FC Krasnodar 3, FC Orenburg 3
H2H summary: FC Krasnodar wins 9, draws 4, FC Orenburg wins 2
Stats
FC Krasnodar FC Krasnodar
FC Orenburg FC Orenburg
Shots on Goal
10
Shots on Goal
2
Shots off Goal
9
Shots off Goal
3
Blocked Shots
3
Blocked Shots
3
5 Corner Kicks 3
7 Fouls 16
2 Offsides 0
68% Ball Possession 32%
22 Total Shots 8
10 Shots on Goal 2
9 Shots off Goal 3
3 Blocked Shots 3
14 Shots insidebox 6
8 Shots outsidebox 2
2 Goalkeeper Saves 7
546 Total passes 261
452 Passes accurate 179
0 expected_goals 0
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

FC Krasnodar
Formation
FC Orenburg
S. Agkatsev
S. Agkatsev
G. Gonzalez
🎯
G. Gonzalez
Tormena
Tormena
Diego Costa
Diego Costa
L. Olaza
L. Olaza
K. Lenini
K. Lenini
Douglas Augusto
Douglas Augusto
Joao Batxi
🎯
Joao Batxi
E. Spertsyan
E. Spertsyan
N. Krivtsov
N. Krivtsov
J. Cordoba
🎯
J. Cordoba
B. Ovsyannikov
B. Ovsyannikov
S. Poroykov
S. Poroykov
J. Palacios
J. Palacios
D. Khotulev
D. Khotulev
D. Vedernikov
D. Vedernikov
Du Queiroz
Du Queiroz
E. Bolotov
E. Bolotov
J. Thompson
J. Thompson
R. Golybin
R. Golybin
D. Rybchinskiy
D. Rybchinskiy
G. Guzina
G. Guzina
FC Krasnodar 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
S. Agkatsev
G
20
G. Gonzalez
🎯 36' ↓ 84'
D
3
Tormena
D
4
Diego Costa
↓ 84'
D
15
L. Olaza
D
6
K. Lenini
⚽ 36'
M
66
Douglas Augusto
↓ 64'
M
11
Joao Batxi
🎯 63' ↓ 84'
M
10
E. Spertsyan
⚽ 88'
M
88
N. Krivtsov
↓ 77'
M
9
J. Cordoba
⚽ 63' 🎯 88' 🟨 40'
F
Substitutes
16
A. Koryakin
G
34
A. Karpenko
G
98
S. Petrov
D
23
J. Boselli
↑ 77'
F
17
V. Paltsev
↑ 84'
D
27
E. Burkin
M
5
Jubal Junior
↑ 84'
D
53
A. Chernikov
↑ 64'
M
90
M. D. Cobnan
↑ 84'
F
29
E. Guseynov
F
30
S. Sadchikov
D
FC Orenburg 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
B. Ovsyannikov
G
2
S. Poroykov
D
6
J. Palacios
🟨 74'
D
4
D. Khotulev
🟨 15'
D
3
D. Vedernikov
D
37
Du Queiroz
↓ 69'
M
57
E. Bolotov
↓ 84'
M
16
J. Thompson
🟨 40'
M
27
R. Golybin
↓ 58'
M
20
D. Rybchinskiy
↓ 57'
M
30
G. Guzina
↓ 69'
F
Substitutes
88
M. Rudakov
G
33
I. Kvekveskiri
↑ 84'
M
9
M. Savelyev
F
26
E. Tsenov
M
19
Alexandre Jesus
↑ 69'
F
32
A. Cantero
D
8
D. Puebla
↑ 58'
F
29
A. El Mahraoui
F
65
I. Ivashchenko
M
78
R. Kul
↑ 69'
M
22
P. Gorelov
↑ 57'
M
48
E. Antsiperov
M
Last matches: FC Krasnodar
19.07.26
Fri
FC Krasnodar
Baltika
1
1
D
11.07.26
Fri
FC Krasnodar
FC Rostov
3
3
D
25.06.26
Fri
FC Krasnodar
PSK Dinskaya
5
1
W
11.05.26
Pre
FC Krasnodar
Dynamo
1
2
L
03.05.26
Pre
FC Krasnodar
Akron
1
0
W
26.04.26
Pre
FC Krasnodar
Dinamo Makhachkala
2
1
W
23.04.26
Pre
FC Krasnodar
Spartak Moscow
2
1
W
19.04.26
Pre
FC Krasnodar
Baltika
2
2
D
12.04.26
Pre
FC Krasnodar
Zenit
1
1
D
04.04.26
Pre
FC Krasnodar
Akhmat
1
0
W
28.03.26
Fri
FC Krasnodar
Amkal
4
0
W
21.03.26
Pre
FC Krasnodar
Nizhny Novgorod
5
0
W
14.03.26
Pre
FC Krasnodar
FC Sochi
2
1
W
08.03.26
Pre
FC Krasnodar
Rubin
1
2
L
28.02.26
Pre
FC Krasnodar
FC Rostov
2
1
W
17.02.26
Fri
FC Krasnodar
Zenit
0
1
L
10.02.26
Fri
FC Krasnodar
Dynamo
0
1
L
06.02.26
Fri
FC Krasnodar
Zenit
3
0
W
03.02.26
Fri
FC Krasnodar
CSKA Moscow
2
2
D
27.01.26
Fri
FC Krasnodar
Yelimay Semey
2
1
W
Last matches: FC Orenburg
11.07.26
Fri
FC Orenburg
CSKA Moscow
2
0
W
07.07.26
Fri
FC Orenburg
Dynamo
1
2
L
03.07.26
Fri
FC Orenburg
Rubin
2
1
W
25.06.26
Fri
FC Orenburg
FK Neftekhimik
0
1
L
10.05.26
Pre
FC Orenburg
Krylia Sovetov
1
0
W
03.05.26
Pre
FC Orenburg
FC Sochi
1
3
L
25.04.26
Pre
FC Orenburg
FC Rostov
1
0
W
22.04.26
Pre
FC Orenburg
Nizhny Novgorod
2
1
W
18.04.26
Pre
FC Orenburg
Lokomotiv
0
1
L
11.04.26
Pre
FC Orenburg
Rubin
0
0
D
04.04.26
Pre
FC Orenburg
Dynamo
3
3
D
22.03.26
Pre
FC Orenburg
Spartak Moscow
0
2
L
13.03.26
Pre
FC Orenburg
Dinamo Makhachkala
0
1
L
08.03.26
Pre
FC Orenburg
Zenit
2
1
W
28.02.26
Pre
FC Orenburg
Akron
2
0
W
20.02.26
Fri
FC Orenburg
Rubin
1
0
W
13.02.26
Fri
FC Orenburg
Kairat Almaty
0
1
L
13.02.26
Fri
FC Orenburg
Alashkert
2
1
W
06.02.26
Fri
FC Orenburg
Bunyodkor
5
1
W
31.01.26
Fri
FC Orenburg
Mornar
1
0
W
H2H: FC Krasnodar vs FC Orenburg
17.05.26
H2H
FC Krasnodar
FC Orenburg
3
0
W
26.11.25
H2H
FC Krasnodar
FC Orenburg
4
0
W
05.11.25
H2H
FC Orenburg
FC Krasnodar
1
3
W
10.08.25
H2H
FC Orenburg
FC Krasnodar
0
1
W
17.05.25
H2H
FC Orenburg
FC Krasnodar
1
2
W
03.11.24
H2H
FC Krasnodar
FC Orenburg
4
0
W
03.12.23
H2H
Krasnodar
Orenburg
2
1
L
12.08.23
H2H
Orenburg
Krasnodar
0
2
W
13.11.22
H2H
Orenburg
Krasnodar
5
1
L
21.08.22
H2H
Krasnodar
Orenburg
2
0
L
27.06.20
H2H
Orenburg
Krasnodar
0
0
D
27.10.19
H2H
Krasnodar
Orenburg
1
1
D
11.03.19
H2H
Krasnodar
Orenburg
2
2
D
26.08.18
H2H
Orenburg
Krasnodar
1
1
D
07.05.17
H2H
Orenburg
Krasnodar
1
0
L
Last matches: FC Krasnodar
19.07.26
Fri
FC Krasnodar
Baltika
1
1
D
11.07.26
Fri
FC Krasnodar
FC Rostov
3
3
D
25.06.26
Fri
FC Krasnodar
PSK Dinskaya
5
1
W
26.04.26
Pre
FC Krasnodar
Dinamo Makhachkala
2
1
W
19.04.26
Pre
FC Krasnodar
Baltika
2
2
D
28.03.26
Fri
FC Krasnodar
Amkal
4
0
W
21.03.26
Pre
FC Krasnodar
Nizhny Novgorod
5
0
W
28.02.26
Pre
FC Krasnodar
FC Rostov
2
1
W
17.02.26
Fri
FC Krasnodar
Zenit
0
1
L
06.02.26
Fri
FC Krasnodar
Zenit
3
0
W
27.01.26
Fri
FC Krasnodar
Yelimay Semey
2
1
W
07.12.25
Pre
FC Krasnodar
CSKA Moscow
3
2
W
30.11.25
Pre
FC Krasnodar
Krylia Sovetov
5
0
W
02.11.25
Pre
FC Krasnodar
Spartak Moscow
2
1
W
26.10.25
Pre
FC Krasnodar
Rubin
1
0
W
04.10.25
Pre
FC Krasnodar
Akhmat
2
0
W
21.09.25
Pre
FC Krasnodar
Zenit
0
2
L
13.09.25
Pre
FC Krasnodar
Akron
2
1
W
17.08.25
Pre
FC Krasnodar
FC Sochi
5
1
W
02.08.25
Pre
FC Krasnodar
Dynamo
1
0
W
H2H at home: FC Krasnodar
17.05.26
H2H
FC Krasnodar
FC Orenburg
3
0
W
26.11.25
H2H
FC Krasnodar
FC Orenburg
4
0
W
03.11.24
H2H
FC Krasnodar
FC Orenburg
4
0
W
Last matches: FC Orenburg
07.07.26
Fri
FC Orenburg
Dynamo
1
2
L
03.07.26
Fri
FC Orenburg
Rubin
2
1
W
03.05.26
Pre
FC Orenburg
FC Sochi
1
3
L
25.04.26
Pre
FC Orenburg
FC Rostov
1
0
W
11.04.26
Pre
FC Orenburg
Rubin
0
0
D
04.04.26
Pre
FC Orenburg
Dynamo
3
3
D
13.03.26
Pre
FC Orenburg
Dinamo Makhachkala
0
1
L
05.12.25
Pre
FC Orenburg
Akhmat
0
1
L
29.11.25
Pre
FC Orenburg
CSKA Moscow
0
2
L
09.11.25
Pre
FC Orenburg
Lokomotiv
0
1
L
25.10.25
Pre
FC Orenburg
Spartak Moscow
0
1
L
18.10.25
Pre
FC Orenburg
Krylia Sovetov
1
1
D
27.09.25
Pre
FC Orenburg
Zenit
2
5
L
13.09.25
Pre
FC Orenburg
Nizhny Novgorod
1
3
L
17.08.25
Pre
FC Orenburg
Akron
2
1
W
03.08.25
Pre
FC Orenburg
Baltika
2
3
L
H2H away: FC Orenburg
17.05.26
H2H
FC Krasnodar
FC Orenburg
3
0
L
26.11.25
H2H
FC Krasnodar
FC Orenburg
4
0
L
03.11.24
H2H
FC Krasnodar
FC Orenburg
4
0
L

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 20 8 2 53:19 34 68
W W W W D
2 30 20 6 4 60:23 37 66
W L W W W
3 30 14 11 5 54:39 15 53
L W D L D
4 30 15 7 8 47:39 8 52
D W L W L
5 30 15 6 9 44:33 11 51
W W L D D
6 30 11 13 6 38:21 17 46
L L L L D
7 30 12 9 9 51:40 11 45
W W D W L
8 30 11 10 9 29:30 -1 43
D L W D W
9 30 9 10 11 35:39 -4 37
D D W L D
10 30 8 9 13 25:32 -7 33
L W W L D
11 30 8 8 14 35:50 -15 32
W L W W L
12 30 7 8 15 29:44 -15 29
L W L W W
13 30 6 9 15 35:53 -18 27
L W L L L
14 30 5 11 14 19:37 -18 26
W W D D L
15 30 6 5 19 26:50 -24 23
D L L L L
16 30 6 4 20 29:60 -31 22
D L W L W
Relegation Playoffs
Relegation

Missing Players

FC Krasnodar 3 missing
-
A. Koksharov
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
V. Stezhko
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
Victor Sa
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
FC Orenburg 3 missing
-
F. Moufi
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT
-
J. Palacios
Questionable Injury
OUT
-
D. Puebla
Questionable Injury
OUT