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24.10.2026 16:30
Ozon Arena
Referee: Andrey Prokopov, Russia
FC Krasnodar
Match Timeline
Baltika
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
18'
Eduardo Anderson
Baltika
⚽
30'
Jhon Cordoba · Assist: Ilya Vakhania
FC Krasnodar
🔄
57'
Maksim Petrov ↔ Fahd Moufi
Baltika
🔄
57'
Ilya Petrov ↔ Ivan Belikov
Baltika
🟨
58'
Eldar Ćivić
Baltika
🟨
62'
Ilya Vakhania
FC Krasnodar
🟨
67'
Christian
FC Krasnodar
🔄
69'
Daniil Utkin ↔ Magomed Ozdoev
FC Krasnodar
🔄
73'
Konstantin Shiltsov ↔ Vladislav Pospelov
Baltika
🔄
73'
Brayan Gil ↔ Chinonso Offor
Baltika
🔄
75'
Christian ↔ Juan Manuel Boselli
FC Krasnodar
🔄
77'
Ilya Vakhania ↔ Sergey Petrov
FC Krasnodar
🔄
81'
Eldar Ćivić ↔ Ilya Porokhov
Baltika
🟨
85'
Lucas Olaza
FC Krasnodar
🟨
89'
Murad Musaev
FC Krasnodar
⚽
90+3'
Loris Mouyokolo · Assist: Vladislav Pospelov
Baltika

FC Krasnodar vs Baltika Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 48.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 70.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
48.2%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
75%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
70.3%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
FC Krasnodar Win 48.2%
Draw 16.1%
Baltika Win 35.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
FC Krasnodar1.53
Baltika1.48
Recent Form (Last 5)
FC Krasnodar FC Krasnodar
D L W D D
9 GF / 7 GA
Baltika Baltika
D D L D L
4 GF / 6 GA
Key Stats
2
Average Goals Scored
1.74
1.1
Average Goals Conceded
0.83
12
BTTS Yes
10
13
Over 2.5
12
5.55
Shots on Goal
4.09

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FC Krasnodar FC Krasnodar 21 matches
Baltika Baltika 23 matches
FC Krasnodar Statistic Baltika
11 Wins 11
7 Draws 7
3 Losses 5
42 Goals For 40
23 Goals Against 19
2 Avg Goals Scored 1.74
1.1 Avg Goals Conceded 0.83
12 BTTS Yes 10
15 Over 1.5 16
13 Over 2.5 12
9 Over 3.5 6
7 Clean Sheets 12
3 Failed To Score 4
5.55 Shots On Goal 4.09
15.64 Total Shots 12.36
4.18 Corners 4.82
58.3% Ball Possession 40.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with FC Krasnodar expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Baltika in 5-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Baltika having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Baltika. FC Krasnodar arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 4 with 21 points compared to Baltika in 8 on 12, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

FC Krasnodar Analysis

FC Krasnodar come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 4 with 21 points from 10 matches. The record of 6 wins, 3 draws, and 1 defeats, together with a 16:10 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Batxi (3 goals), Nikita Krivtsov (3 goals), Jubal (3 goals), with creative support from Christian (2 assists), L. Olaza (2 assists), D. Vorobjev (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Baltika Analysis

Baltika are currently 8 in the standings with 12 points from 10 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, while the 14:12 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on B. Gil (4 goals), N. Titkov (2 goals), C. Offor (2 goals), with creative support from N. Gassama (2 assists), B. Gil (1 assists), N. Titkov (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, FC Krasnodar won 1 times, Baltika won 0 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:8 from FC Krasnodar's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 3.4 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (83.9%)
Predicted formations: FC Krasnodar 4-3-3 / Baltika 5-4-1
Missing players: FC Krasnodar 1, Baltika 2
H2H summary: FC Krasnodar wins 1, draws 4, Baltika wins 0

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 13 10 0 3 30:13 17 30
W W W W W
2 13 9 1 3 21:12 9 28
W L W W W
3 13 7 5 1 21:12 9 26
D W L W W
4 13 8 2 3 25:10 15 26
W L W D W
5 13 6 5 2 21:16 5 23
L D D L D
6 13 5 3 5 16:17 -1 18
W W D W L
7 14 4 6 4 14:18 -4 18
W W L L L
8 13 4 5 4 17:14 3 17
W D D D L
9 13 3 8 2 14:12 2 17
D W D W D
10 13 3 6 4 17:20 -3 15
L W L D D
11 13 4 1 8 16:26 -10 13
L L D L L
12 13 3 3 7 15:28 -13 12
W W D L D
13 13 2 6 5 16:23 -7 12
L W D L W
14 13 2 5 6 15:19 -4 11
L L L D L
15 14 2 5 7 16:21 -5 11
L L L D W
16 13 1 3 9 8:21 -13 6
L L W L L
Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation - FNL