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BELARUS › PREMIER LEAGUE
11.10.2026 13:00
Central Stadion
FC Gomel
Match Timeline
ML Vitebsk
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
1'
A. Kontsevoy · Assist: A. Mesarovic
ML Vitebsk
⚽
5'
A. Kontsevoy · Assist: R. Bosic
ML Vitebsk
🟨
21'
Radivoj Bosić
ML Vitebsk
🔄
24'
D. Shaykhtdinov ↔ V. Martinkevich
FC Gomel
⚽
30'
A. Gavrilovich
FC Gomel
🔄
34'
A. Mesarovic ↔ S. Gnaka
ML Vitebsk
🔄
46'
S. Balanovich ↔ Y. Skibskiy
ML Vitebsk
⚽
49'
D. Cleonise · Assist: R. Bosic
ML Vitebsk
🔄
51'
R. Adeola ↔ D. Kovalevich
FC Gomel
⚽
69'
V. Gromyko · Assist: S. Gnaka
ML Vitebsk
🔄
72'
D. Cleonise ↔ T. Ivanov
ML Vitebsk
🔄
72'
V. Gromyko ↔ M. Bulanov
ML Vitebsk
🔄
76'
R. Bosic ↔ V. Bocherov
ML Vitebsk
🔄
78'
V. Sotnikov ↔ M. Mardas
FC Gomel
⚽
82'
M. Bulanov · Assist: V. Bocherov
ML Vitebsk
🟨
86'
Vladislav Lazarev
FC Gomel

FC Gomel vs ML Vitebsk Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 45%
Odds 3.80
BTTS
Yes
Probability 63.2%
Odds 1.93
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds 2.18
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
45%
3.80 ▥
BTTS Yes
63.2%
1.93 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
2.18 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
6.70 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
30.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
FC Gomel Win 45%
Draw 14.7%
ML Vitebsk Win 40.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
FC Gomel1.34
ML Vitebsk1.49
Recent Form (Last 5)
FC Gomel FC Gomel
WWDLW
54 GF / 25 GA
ML Vitebsk ML Vitebsk
WLDWL
63 GF / 28 GA
Key Stats
1.64
Average Goals Scored
1.97
0.76
Average Goals Conceded
0.88
15
BTTS Yes
18
14
Over 2.5
18
1.78
Shots on Goal
2.11

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FC Gomel FC Gomel 33 matches
ML Vitebsk ML Vitebsk 32 matches
FC Gomel Statistic ML Vitebsk
19 Wins 20
7 Draws 8
7 Losses 4
54 Goals For 63
25 Goals Against 28
1.64 Avg Goals Scored 1.97
0.76 Avg Goals Conceded 0.88
15 BTTS Yes 18
24 Over 1.5 24
14 Over 2.5 18
8 Over 3.5 10
15 Clean Sheets 12
6 Failed To Score 6
1.78 Shots On Goal 2.11
0.13 Total Shots 0.56
2.09 Corners 3.11
21.2% Ball Possession 28%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward ML Vitebsk. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with FC Gomel expected to line up in 4-4-2 and ML Vitebsk in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward ML Vitebsk having the stronger overall control.

FC Gomel Analysis

FC Gomel approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 5 on 39 points after 23 outings. With 11 wins, 6 draws, and 6 defeats plus a goal balance of 33:18, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by their main attacking players, and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, they have managed 6 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

ML Vitebsk Analysis

ML Vitebsk arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 2 place with 44 points after 21 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 12 wins, 8 draws, and 1 losses, while the 42:17 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 8 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, FC Gomel won 0 times, ML Vitebsk won 3 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:10 from FC Gomel's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.3%)
Predicted formations: FC Gomel 4-4-2 / ML Vitebsk 4-3-3
H2H summary: FC Gomel wins 0, draws 1, ML Vitebsk wins 3

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 13 8 1 47:18 29 47
W W D D D
2 23 13 7 3 37:18 19 46
D L W D W
3 22 14 4 4 40:18 22 46
W W L D W
4 24 13 4 7 31:20 11 43
W W W W D
5 24 13 4 7 39:23 16 43
W W W W L
6 24 11 6 7 34:23 11 39
L W L W W
7 24 10 7 7 28:21 7 37
D W D L W
8 24 10 4 10 30:29 1 34
L L W W L
9 23 8 6 9 29:29 0 30
W L L L W
10 23 6 7 10 24:28 -4 25
L L L W L
11 24 6 7 11 24:41 -17 25
L L D W W
12 24 5 8 11 24:42 -18 23
L L D D L
13 24 4 9 11 18:30 -12 21
L W L D L
14 23 5 6 12 23:40 -17 21
L W D D D
15 24 4 5 15 24:55 -31 17
W W D L L
16 24 2 10 12 22:39 -17 16
L L D L D
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Vysshaya Liga (Relegation)
Relegation - Pershaya Liga