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🇺🇸 USA › MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
25.10.2026 00:30
Toyota Stadium

FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 58.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
58.1%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
78.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
FC Dallas Win 58.1%
Draw 9.2%
San Jose Earthquakes Win 32.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
FC Dallas1.66
San Jose Earthquakes1.59
Recent Form (Last 5)
FC Dallas FC Dallas
WWDLW
63 GF / 49 GA
San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes
WLDWL
59 GF / 48 GA
Key Stats
1.85
Average Goals Scored
1.69
1.44
Average Goals Conceded
1.37
20
BTTS Yes
22
23
Over 2.5
18
4.7
Shots on Goal
4.93

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FC Dallas FC Dallas 34 matches
San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 35 matches
FC Dallas Statistic San Jose Earthquakes
16 Wins 16
10 Draws 9
8 Losses 10
63 Goals For 59
49 Goals Against 48
1.85 Avg Goals Scored 1.69
1.44 Avg Goals Conceded 1.37
20 BTTS Yes 22
25 Over 1.5 28
23 Over 2.5 18
16 Over 3.5 15
10 Clean Sheets 9
8 Failed To Score 5
4.7 Shots On Goal 4.93
12.33 Total Shots 13.6
4.47 Corners 6.27
42.4% Ball Possession 48.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors San Jose Earthquakes. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with FC Dallas expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and San Jose Earthquakes in 5-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward San Jose Earthquakes having the stronger overall control.

FC Dallas Analysis

FC Dallas approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 3 on 50 points after 29 outings. The return of 14 wins, 8 draws, and 7 defeats, together with goals at 53:45, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through P. Musa (13 goals), L. Farrington (5 goals), S. Moreno (4 goals), with creative support from J. Valiente (6 assists), P. Musa (4 assists), S. Moreno (3 assists), while their defending has remained quite vulnerable. At home, their record of 7 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

San Jose Earthquakes Analysis

San Jose Earthquakes arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 4 place with 47 points after 29 matches. The record of 13 wins, 8 draws, and 8 defeats, together with a 51:41 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through P. Judd (13 goals), T. Werner (4 goals), O. Bouda (4 goals), with creative support from Niko Tsakiris (7 assists), Beau Leroux (6 assists), P. Marie (5 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, their split return of 7 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses fits a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, FC Dallas won 3 times, San Jose Earthquakes won 4 times, while 8 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 26:27 from FC Dallas's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 14 matches, with an average of 3.53 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.8%)
Predicted formations: FC Dallas 3-4-2-1 / San Jose Earthquakes 5-3-2
H2H summary: FC Dallas wins 3, draws 8, San Jose Earthquakes wins 4

Standings

Western Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 16 7 7 63:31 32 55
W D D L D
2 30 14 9 7 56:41 15 51
L D W W W
3 30 14 9 7 55:47 8 51
D W L W D
4 30 13 9 8 52:42 10 48
D D D W D
5 30 13 8 9 41:39 2 47
D D D L D
6 31 12 10 9 48:33 15 46
D W D L D
7 30 11 9 10 39:37 2 42
D L W W W
8 31 10 10 11 43:52 -9 40
D W L W W
9 30 11 6 13 41:41 0 39
D D D L D
10 30 10 6 14 45:48 -3 36
W D L W L
11 30 9 7 14 51:56 -5 34
D L D L L
12 30 8 10 12 53:56 -3 34
D D L D D
13 30 8 10 12 47:55 -8 34
W D D L L
14 30 7 10 13 38:56 -18 31
L L L D D
15 30 6 4 20 36:75 -39 22
L L D L W
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)