🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
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TQL Stadium

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 68.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 88%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
68.2%
-
BTTS Yes
88%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
69.4%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
FC Cincinnati Win 68.2%
Draw 4%
DC United Win 27.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
FC Cincinnati2.07
DC United1.5
Recent Form (Last 5)
FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati
WWDLW
74 GF / 62 GA
DC United DC United
WLDWL
29 GF / 40 GA
Key Stats
2.39
Average Goals Scored
1.16
2
Average Goals Conceded
1.6
22
BTTS Yes
14
21
Over 2.5
13
5.56
Shots on Goal
4.24

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 31 matches
DC United DC United 25 matches
FC Cincinnati Statistic DC United
13 Wins 5
9 Draws 12
9 Losses 8
74 Goals For 29
62 Goals Against 40
2.39 Avg Goals Scored 1.16
2 Avg Goals Conceded 1.6
22 BTTS Yes 14
28 Over 1.5 17
21 Over 2.5 13
18 Over 3.5 9
6 Clean Sheets 7
3 Failed To Score 9
5.56 Shots On Goal 4.24
12.68 Total Shots 12.1
4 Corners 4.67
45.6% Ball Possession 37.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights FC Cincinnati's more proactive style and DC United's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors DC United. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with FC Cincinnati expected to line up in 3-5-2 and DC United in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward DC United having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

FC Cincinnati Analysis

FC Cincinnati sit 6 with 31 points after 21 league matches. The record of 8 wins, 7 draws, and 6 defeats, together with a 49:47 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Evander (10 goals), Kévin Denkey (9 goals), Tom Barlow (4 goals), with creative support from Evander (7 assists), Pavel Bucha (4 assists), Ender Echenique (3 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, the record of 7 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

DC United Analysis

DC United sit 11 with 24 points after 21 league matches. Their overall return of 5 wins, 9 draws, and 7 losses with goals at 28:36 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Tai Baribo (7 goals), Louis Munteanu (5 goals), Jackson Hopkins (2 goals), with creative support from Keisuke Kurokawa (4 assists), João Peglow (2 assists), Silvan Hefti (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 2 wins, 6 draws, and 3 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, FC Cincinnati won 4 times, DC United won 6 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:21 from FC Cincinnati's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.64 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96%)
Predicted formations: FC Cincinnati 3-5-2 / DC United 4-4-2
H2H summary: FC Cincinnati wins 4, draws 4, DC United wins 6

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 16 4 2 47:17 30 52
W W W W D
2 22 12 6 4 56:41 15 42
W L D L D
3 21 11 4 6 39:28 11 37
D D W W W
4 22 11 4 7 36:27 9 37
W D W L L
5 22 10 5 7 40:32 8 35
W W D W L
6 22 8 7 7 49:51 -2 31
L D W D W
7 22 7 7 8 36:31 5 28
D D L L D
8 22 7 5 10 32:46 -14 26
L D L L W
9 22 7 4 11 37:54 -17 25
D W L D L
10 22 5 10 7 32:38 -6 25
D W D W D
11 22 5 10 7 28:36 -8 25
D L L D D
12 22 6 6 10 34:39 -5 24
W D D W W
13 22 6 3 13 25:38 -13 21
L W W W L
14 22 5 6 11 30:46 -16 21
L D W D D
15 22 5 5 12 31:39 -8 20
L L L L D
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)