🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
12.09.2026 23:30
TQL Stadium

FC Cincinnati vs Charlotte Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 58.9%
Odds 1.90
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds 1.36
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.36
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
58.9%
1.90
BTTS Yes
86%
1.36
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
1.36
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
85.8%
1.83
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.88
Correct Score 2-1
-
7.00
Probability Distribution
FC Cincinnati Win 58.9%
Draw 4%
Charlotte Win 37.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
FC Cincinnati1.9
Charlotte1.86
Recent Form (Last 5)
FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati
WWDLW
74 GF / 67 GA
Charlotte Charlotte
WLDWL
48 GF / 36 GA
Key Stats
2.31
Average Goals Scored
1.71
2.09
Average Goals Conceded
1.29
22
BTTS Yes
18
22
Over 2.5
18
5.59
Shots on Goal
4.92

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 32 matches
Charlotte Charlotte 28 matches
FC Cincinnati Statistic Charlotte
13 Wins 14
9 Draws 6
10 Losses 8
74 Goals For 48
67 Goals Against 36
2.31 Avg Goals Scored 1.71
2.09 Avg Goals Conceded 1.29
22 BTTS Yes 18
29 Over 1.5 21
22 Over 2.5 18
19 Over 3.5 11
6 Clean Sheets 6
4 Failed To Score 6
5.59 Shots On Goal 4.92
12.81 Total Shots 11.58
4.26 Corners 4.58
47.9% Ball Possession 46.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and Charlotte's more proactive style and FC Cincinnati's more cautious structure points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Charlotte. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with FC Cincinnati expected to line up in 3-5-2 and Charlotte in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Charlotte having the stronger overall control. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

FC Cincinnati Analysis

FC Cincinnati sit 6 with 31 points after 22 league matches. Their overall return of 8 wins, 7 draws, and 7 losses with goals at 49:51 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Evander (10 goals), Kévin Denkey (9 goals), Tom Barlow (4 goals), with creative support from Evander (7 assists), Pavel Bucha (4 assists), Ender Echenique (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. At home, the record of 7 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Charlotte Analysis

Charlotte approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 5 on 35 points after 22 outings. With 10 wins, 5 draws, and 7 defeats plus a goal balance of 40:32, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by Pep Biel (4 goals), Idan Toklomati (4 goals), Kerwin Calderón Vargas (2 goals), with creative support from Pep Biel (4 assists), Kerwin Calderón Vargas (4 assists), Liel Abada (1 assists), and at the back they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 3 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, FC Cincinnati won 2 times, Charlotte won 4 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:13 from FC Cincinnati's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96%)
Predicted formations: FC Cincinnati 3-5-2 / Charlotte 4-3-3
Missing players: FC Cincinnati 2, Charlotte 4
H2H summary: FC Cincinnati wins 2, draws 3, Charlotte wins 4

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 24 16 5 3 48:19 29 53
L D W W W
2 24 12 8 4 59:44 15 44
D D W L D
3 24 12 4 8 39:30 9 40
W L W D W
4 23 11 6 6 44:33 11 39
D D D D W
5 24 11 6 7 42:33 9 39
W D W W D
6 24 9 4 11 41:56 -15 31
W W D W L
7 23 8 7 8 49:56 -7 31
L L D W D
8 24 8 6 10 41:39 2 30
W W W D D
9 24 7 8 9 37:33 4 29
L D D D L
10 24 6 11 7 38:43 -5 29
W D D W D
11 23 6 10 7 30:37 -7 28
W D L L D
12 24 7 6 11 32:48 -16 27
L D L D L
13 24 6 5 13 35:41 -6 23
L W L L L
14 24 6 4 14 29:43 -14 22
L D L W W
15 24 5 6 13 31:50 -19 21
L L L D W
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)