PERU PRIMERA DIVISIóN
16.08.2026 20:30
Estadio Heroes de San Ramon
Referee: Micke Palomino, Peru
FC Cajamarca
Match Timeline
Universitario
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
17'
Yordi Vílchez
FC Cajamarca
24'
C. Inga · Assist: G. Lapadula
Universitario
29'
A. Valera · Assist: C. Inga
Universitario
VAR
43'
Brandon Palacios
FC Cajamarca
45'
M. Rasmussen
FC Cajamarca
VAR
58'
Gianluca Lapadula
Universitario
🟨
60'
Alejandro Pósito
FC Cajamarca
61'
G. Lapadula
Universitario
🔄
65'
C. A. Correa Flores ↔ E. Aubert
FC Cajamarca
🔄
65'
M. Rasmussen ↔ J. Betancourt
FC Cajamarca
🔄
65'
C. Meza ↔ J. Lugo
FC Cajamarca
🟨
69'
Renato Suárez
FC Cajamarca
🟨
71'
Alex Valera
Universitario
🔄
72'
J. Requena ↔ J. Murrugarra
Universitario
🔄
72'
J. Concha ↔ P. A. Quispe Cordova
Universitario
🟨
80'
Jorge Murrugarra
Universitario
🔄
80'
G. Lapadula ↔ J. Rivera
Universitario
🟨
81'
Jefferson Orejuela
FC Cajamarca
🟥
86'
Anderson Santamaría
Universitario
88'
J. Lugo
FC Cajamarca
🔄
89'
A. Valera ↔ W. Riveros
Universitario
🔄
90'
A. Quiroz ↔ H. Fertoli
Universitario

FC Cajamarca vs Universitario Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 46%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
46%
-
BTTS Yes
82.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
88%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
FC Cajamarca Win 39.2%
Draw 14.8%
Universitario Win 46%
Expected Goals (xG)
FC Cajamarca1.25
Universitario1.48
Recent Form (Last 5)
FC Cajamarca FC Cajamarca
WWDLW
32 GF / 37 GA
Universitario Universitario
WLDWL
42 GF / 29 GA
Key Stats
1.45
Average Goals Scored
1.35
1.68
Average Goals Conceded
0.94
15
BTTS Yes
15
13
Over 2.5
14
3.38
Shots on Goal
3.93

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FC Cajamarca FC Cajamarca 22 matches
Universitario Universitario 31 matches
FC Cajamarca Statistic Universitario
6 Wins 14
6 Draws 9
10 Losses 8
32 Goals For 42
37 Goals Against 29
1.45 Avg Goals Scored 1.35
1.68 Avg Goals Conceded 0.94
15 BTTS Yes 15
18 Over 1.5 21
13 Over 2.5 14
8 Over 3.5 6
0 Clean Sheets 12
7 Failed To Score 10
3.38 Shots On Goal 3.93
9.48 Total Shots 13.44
2.62 Corners 5.78
43% Ball Possession 51.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Universitario's more proactive style and FC Cajamarca's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with FC Cajamarca expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Universitario in 4-1-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Universitario having the stronger overall control. Universitario carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 4 with 29 points while FC Cajamarca sit 15 on 17, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Universitario.

FC Cajamarca Analysis

With 17 points from 17 games and a place of 15, FC Cajamarca still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 4 wins, 5 draws, and 8 defeats, and the 23:28 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Brandon Palacios (4 goals), Hernán Barcos (3 goals), Mauricio Arrasco (2 goals), with creative support from Sebastián Enciso (3 assists), Hernán Barcos (2 assists), Ricardo Lagos (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, the split record of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Universitario Analysis

Operating from 4 place with 29 points from 17 games, Universitario bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 8 wins, 5 draws, and 4 defeats plus a goal balance of 24:15, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by Alex Valera (5 goals), Edison Flores (3 goals), Caín Fara (2 goals), with creative support from Alex Valera (2 assists), Edison Flores (2 assists), Jairo Concha (2 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses, which underlines a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, FC Cajamarca won 0 times, Universitario won 2 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:4 from FC Cajamarca's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.2%)
Predicted formations: FC Cajamarca 4-2-3-1 / Universitario 4-1-3-2
H2H summary: FC Cajamarca wins 0, draws 0, Universitario wins 2

Standings

Primera Division: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 15 8 2 41:16 25 53
D L D W D
2 25 13 7 5 41:26 15 46
D W W W D
3 25 13 6 6 35:23 12 45
W W W D W
4 25 12 6 7 43:28 15 42
W L D W L
5 25 13 3 9 38:36 2 42
W W L W L
6 25 12 5 8 34:42 -8 41
L L L L D
7 25 12 4 9 44:37 7 40
W L L D L
8 25 10 7 8 37:31 6 37
W W W D W
9 25 9 7 9 27:25 2 34
L W W D D
10 25 9 5 11 43:38 5 32
W L L W D
11 25 7 9 9 34:35 -1 30
D L W L W
12 25 8 5 12 22:27 -5 29
L W W W D
13 25 8 5 12 33:42 -9 29
W W L L D
14 25 7 7 11 36:51 -15 28
D W W L D
15 25 6 7 12 23:35 -12 25
L L W D L
16 25 6 6 13 38:49 -11 24
L W L L W
17 25 5 7 13 27:39 -12 22
L L L D D
18 25 4 8 13 29:45 -16 15
L L L L D
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga 2