PERU PRIMERA DIVISIóN
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Estadio Heroes de San Ramon
Referee: M. Palomino

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 46%
Odds 1.78
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds 2.00
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds 2.03
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
46%
1.78
BTTS Yes
82.5%
2.00
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
2.03
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
88%
1.12
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
4.50
Correct Score 1-2
-
8.50
Probability Distribution
FC Cajamarca Win 39.2%
Draw 14.8%
Universitario Win 46%
Expected Goals (xG)
FC Cajamarca1.25
Universitario1.48
Recent Form (Last 5)
FC Cajamarca FC Cajamarca
WWDLW
32 GF / 37 GA
Universitario Universitario
WLDWL
42 GF / 29 GA
Key Stats
1.45
Average Goals Scored
1.35
1.68
Average Goals Conceded
0.94
15
BTTS Yes
15
13
Over 2.5
14
3.38
Shots on Goal
3.93

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FC Cajamarca FC Cajamarca 22 matches
Universitario Universitario 31 matches
FC Cajamarca Statistic Universitario
6 Wins 14
6 Draws 9
10 Losses 8
32 Goals For 42
37 Goals Against 29
1.45 Avg Goals Scored 1.35
1.68 Avg Goals Conceded 0.94
15 BTTS Yes 15
18 Over 1.5 21
13 Over 2.5 14
8 Over 3.5 6
0 Clean Sheets 12
7 Failed To Score 10
3.38 Shots On Goal 3.93
9.38 Total Shots 13.41
2.62 Corners 5.78
43% Ball Possession 51.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Universitario's more proactive style and FC Cajamarca's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with FC Cajamarca expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Universitario in 4-1-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Universitario having the stronger overall control. Universitario carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 4 with 29 points while FC Cajamarca sit 15 on 17, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Universitario.

FC Cajamarca Analysis

With 17 points from 17 games and a place of 15, FC Cajamarca still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 4 wins, 5 draws, and 8 defeats, and the 23:28 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Brandon Palacios (4 goals), Hernán Barcos (3 goals), Mauricio Arrasco (2 goals), with creative support from Sebastián Enciso (3 assists), Hernán Barcos (2 assists), Ricardo Lagos (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, the split record of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Universitario Analysis

Operating from 4 place with 29 points from 17 games, Universitario bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 8 wins, 5 draws, and 4 defeats plus a goal balance of 24:15, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by Alex Valera (5 goals), Edison Flores (3 goals), Caín Fara (2 goals), with creative support from Alex Valera (2 assists), Edison Flores (2 assists), Jairo Concha (2 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses, which underlines a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, FC Cajamarca won 0 times, Universitario won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 0:1 from FC Cajamarca's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 1 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.2%)
Predicted formations: FC Cajamarca 4-2-3-1 / Universitario 4-1-3-2
H2H summary: FC Cajamarca wins 0, draws 0, Universitario wins 1
Last matches: FC Cajamarca
09.08.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
FBC Melgar
4
2
W
01.08.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Sport Huancayo
0
2
L
27.07.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Deportivo Garcilaso
1
2
L
17.07.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Juan Pablo II College
2
2
D
31.05.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Alianza Lima
1
1
D
24.05.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Alianza Atletico
1
1
D
15.05.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Sporting Cristal
3
1
W
08.05.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
UTC Cajamarca
2
1
W
02.05.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Sport Boys
3
2
W
25.04.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
UCV Moquegua
1
2
L
22.04.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Cusco
0
1
L
18.04.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
ADT
2
2
D
06.04.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
0
1
L
21.03.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Cienciano
0
3
L
13.03.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Comerciantes Unidos
3
4
L
06.03.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Atletico Grau
0
1
L
01.03.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Universitario
0
1
L
21.02.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
FBC Melgar
3
1
W
15.02.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Sport Huancayo
0
2
L
09.02.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Deportivo Garcilaso
1
1
D
Last matches: Universitario
08.08.26
Pri
Universitario
Sporting Cristal
1
1
D
02.08.26
Pri
Universitario
Cienciano
0
2
L
25.07.26
Pri
Universitario
Cusco
2
1
W
18.07.26
Pri
Universitario
ADT
2
1
W
11.07.26
Fri
Universitario
Millonarios
2
0
W
31.05.26
Pri
Universitario
Sport Huancayo
2
1
W
27.05.26
CON
Universitario
Deportes Tolima
0
0
D
23.05.26
Pri
Universitario
UCV Moquegua
0
0
D
20.05.26
CON
Universitario
Club Nacional
0
0
D
16.05.26
Pri
Universitario
Atletico Grau
0
1
L
12.05.26
Pri
Universitario
Sport Boys
0
0
D
08.05.26
CON
Universitario
Coquimbo Unido
1
2
L
03.05.26
Pri
Universitario
Juan Pablo II College
4
1
W
30.04.26
CON
Universitario
Club Nacional
4
2
W
26.04.26
Pri
Universitario
Alianza Atletico
1
2
L
23.04.26
Pri
Universitario
Deportivo Garcilaso
4
1
W
19.04.26
Pri
Universitario
FBC Melgar
1
2
L
15.04.26
CON
Universitario
Coquimbo Unido
0
2
L
08.04.26
CON
Universitario
Deportes Tolima
0
0
D
05.04.26
Pri
Universitario
Alianza Lima
1
0
W
H2H: FC Cajamarca vs Universitario
01.03.26
H2H
Universitario
FC Cajamarca
1
0
L
Last matches: FC Cajamarca
01.08.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Sport Huancayo
0
2
L
17.07.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Juan Pablo II College
2
2
D
31.05.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Alianza Lima
1
1
D
15.05.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Sporting Cristal
3
1
W
02.05.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Sport Boys
3
2
W
18.04.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
ADT
2
2
D
06.04.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
0
1
L
13.03.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Comerciantes Unidos
3
4
L
21.02.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
FBC Melgar
3
1
W
09.02.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Deportivo Garcilaso
1
1
D
18.01.26
Fri
FC Cajamarca
ADT
2
1
W
Last matches: Universitario
02.08.26
Pri
Universitario
Cienciano
0
2
L
18.07.26
Pri
Universitario
ADT
2
1
W
23.05.26
Pri
Universitario
UCV Moquegua
0
0
D
20.05.26
CON
Universitario
Club Nacional
0
0
D
12.05.26
Pri
Universitario
Sport Boys
0
0
D
08.05.26
CON
Universitario
Coquimbo Unido
1
2
L
03.05.26
Pri
Universitario
Juan Pablo II College
4
1
W
19.04.26
Pri
Universitario
FBC Melgar
1
2
L
08.04.26
CON
Universitario
Deportes Tolima
0
0
D
21.03.26
Pri
Universitario
Comerciantes Unidos
0
0
D
08.03.26
Pri
Universitario
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
1
3
L
21.02.26
Pri
Universitario
Sporting Cristal
2
2
D
08.02.26
Pri
Universitario
Cusco
1
1
D
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 1.78
Draw 3.33
Home 4.65
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.24
Draw 2.16
Home 4.78
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.31
Over 1.75 1.39
Over 2.0 1.52
Over 2.25 1.79
Over 2.5 2.03
Over 2.75 2.31
Over 3.0 2.82
Under 1.5 3.26
Under 1.75 2.87
Under 2.0 2.49
Under 2.25 2.03
Under 2.5 1.76
Under 2.75 1.57
Under 3.0 1.40
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 1.70
Draw 3.50
Home 4.50
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.38
Draw 2.10
Home 5.50
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.10
Draw 2.40
Home 4.50
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.06
Over 1.5 1.33
Over 2.5 2.05
Over 3.5 3.75
Over 4.5 8.00
Over 5.5 17.00
Over 6.5 34.00
Under 0.5 10.00
Under 1.5 3.25
Under 2.5 1.75
Under 3.5 1.25
Under 4.5 1.08
Under 5.5 1.02
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 1.76
Draw 3.38
Home 4.78
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.37
Draw 2.01
Home 5.56
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.08
Draw 2.44
Home 4.79
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.02
Over 0.75 1.03
Over 1.0 1.04
Over 1.25 1.17
Over 1.5 1.28
Over 1.75 1.38
Over 2.0 1.49
Over 2.25 1.75
Over 2.5 2.02
Over 2.75 2.30
Over 3.0 2.76
Over 3.25 3.10
Over 3.5 3.34
Over 3.75 4.23
Over 4.0 5.80
Over 4.25 6.20
Over 4.5 6.55
Over 5.5 14.50
Over 6.5 34.00
Under 0.5 8.00
Under 0.75 7.40
Under 1.0 6.75
Under 1.25 4.07
Under 1.5 3.05
Under 1.75 2.71
Under 2.0 2.36
Under 2.25 1.95
Under 2.5 1.75
Under 2.75 1.58
Under 3.0 1.36
Under 3.25 1.31
Under 3.5 1.24
Under 3.75 1.16
Under 4.0 1.07
Under 4.25 1.06
Under 4.5 1.05
Under 5.5 1.02
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 1.82
Draw 3.45
Home 4.10
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.40
Draw 2.23
Home 4.40
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.18
Draw 2.50
Home 4.00
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.28
Over 2.0 1.45
Over 2.25 1.68
Over 2.5 1.91
Over 2.75 2.17
Over 3.0 2.63
Over 3.25 2.95
Over 3.5 3.25
Over 3.75 3.95
Over 4.0 5.30
Over 4.25 5.60
Over 4.5 5.80
Under 1.5 3.20
Under 2.0 2.48
Under 2.25 2.00
Under 2.5 1.77
Under 2.75 1.58
Under 3.0 1.41
Under 3.25 1.34
Under 3.5 1.28
Under 3.75 1.20
Under 4.0 1.11
Under 4.25 1.10
Under 4.5 1.09

Standings

Primera Division: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 21 14 6 1 38:13 25 48
D W D W D
2 21 12 5 4 31:27 4 41
D W L W D
3 21 11 3 7 37:28 9 36
L W L L W
4 21 10 6 5 29:20 9 36
D L W W W
5 22 11 3 8 33:31 2 36
W L W L W
6 21 10 5 6 36:26 10 35
L D W W W
7 21 10 5 6 26:20 6 35
W W W L W
8 22 7 7 8 27:27 0 28
D W L W L
9 21 7 6 8 19:21 -2 27
D W W L W
10 21 7 5 9 33:33 0 26
D W L W L
11 22 6 8 8 27:29 -2 26
L W L D D
12 22 6 5 11 16:22 -6 23
W D L L W
13 21 6 5 10 27:34 -7 23
D W W L L
14 22 5 7 10 25:28 -3 22
D D L L L
15 21 5 6 10 30:36 -6 21
W L L D D
16 21 5 6 10 19:28 -9 21
L D D D L
17 22 5 6 11 26:46 -20 21
L D L W D
18 21 4 8 9 24:34 -10 15
D L D L D
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga 2