19.09.2026 18:00
Estadio Heroes de San Ramon

FC Cajamarca vs Cusco Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 76.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
76.7%
-
BTTS Yes
82.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
FC Cajamarca Win 11.1%
Draw 12.2%
Cusco Win 76.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
FC Cajamarca1.54
Cusco1.54
Recent Form (Last 5)
FC Cajamarca FC Cajamarca
WWDLW
42 GF / 51 GA
Cusco Cusco
WLDWL
43 GF / 50 GA
Key Stats
1.56
Average Goals Scored
1.3
1.89
Average Goals Conceded
1.52
20
BTTS Yes
20
18
Over 2.5
18
3.62
Shots on Goal
4.31

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FC Cajamarca FC Cajamarca 27 matches
Cusco Cusco 33 matches
FC Cajamarca Statistic Cusco
8 Wins 13
6 Draws 5
13 Losses 15
42 Goals For 43
51 Goals Against 50
1.56 Avg Goals Scored 1.3
1.89 Avg Goals Conceded 1.52
20 BTTS Yes 20
23 Over 1.5 25
18 Over 2.5 18
12 Over 3.5 9
0 Clean Sheets 5
7 Failed To Score 8
3.62 Shots On Goal 4.31
10.77 Total Shots 11.88
2.85 Corners 3.88
43.8% Ball Possession 55.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Cusco's more proactive style and FC Cajamarca's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Cusco carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 5 with 42 points while FC Cajamarca sit 16 on 24, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. FC Cajamarca have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with FC Cajamarca expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Cusco in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Cusco having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Cusco.

FC Cajamarca Analysis

FC Cajamarca sit 16 with 24 points after 25 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 6 wins, 6 draws, and 13 defeats with a 38:49 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on M. Arrasco (6 goals), B. Palacios (6 goals), H. Barcos (4 goals), with creative support from S. Enciso (4 assists), M. Arrasco (3 assists), B. Palacios (2 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned - wins, - draws, and - losses, which indicates an unclear split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Cusco Analysis

Cusco come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 5 place with 42 points after 25 matches. The return of 13 wins, 3 draws, and 9 defeats, together with goals at 38:36, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through F. Callejo (6 goals), I. Colman (3 goals), J. Manzaneda (2 goals), with creative support from L. Colitto (4 assists), F. Callejo (2 assists), I. Colman (2 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. Away from home, the split of - wins, - draws, and - losses supports the view of an unclear split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, FC Cajamarca won 0 times, Cusco won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 0:1 from FC Cajamarca's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 1 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (88.9%)
Predicted formations: FC Cajamarca 4-4-2 / Cusco 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: FC Cajamarca wins 0, draws 0, Cusco wins 1

Standings

Primera Division: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 15 8 3 42:18 24 53
L D L D W
2 26 14 7 5 43:27 16 49
W D W W W
3 26 13 6 7 44:28 16 45
W W L D W
4 26 13 6 7 35:24 11 45
L W W W D
5
Cusco Away
26 13 3 10 38:37 1 42
L W W L W
6 26 12 5 9 35:44 -9 41
L L L L L
7 25 12 4 9 44:37 7 40
W L L D L
8 26 10 7 9 38:34 4 37
L W W W D
9 26 10 7 9 28:25 3 37
W L W W D
10 26 10 5 11 45:39 6 35
W W L L W
11 26 9 5 12 25:28 -3 32
W L W W W
12 26 9 5 12 34:42 -8 32
W W W L L
13 26 8 7 11 38:52 -14 31
W D W W L
14 26 7 9 10 34:36 -2 30
L D L W L
15 26 7 6 13 40:50 -10 27
W L W L L
16 26 6 7 13 24:37 -13 25
L L L W D
17 25 5 7 13 27:39 -12 22
L L L D D
18 26 4 8 14 30:47 -17 15
L L L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga 2