03.05.2026 23:00
Estadio de la UNSA
Referee: Edwin Ordonez, Peru
FBC Melgar
Match Timeline
UTC Cajamarca
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
31'
Joshua Cantt
UTC Cajamarca
VAR
42'
Javier Salas
FBC Melgar
🟨
45+4'
Alec Deneumostier
FBC Melgar
🔄
60'
L. Guzman ↔ J. Caceres
FBC Melgar
🔄
67'
A. Munoz ↔ A. Arroyo
UTC Cajamarca
🟨
70'
Dylan Caro
UTC Cajamarca
🔄
71'
M. Zegarra ↔ B. Cuesta
FBC Melgar
🔄
73'
D. Dioses ↔ L. Garro
UTC Cajamarca
74'
B. Cuesta · Assist: J. Vidales
FBC Melgar
78'
N. Quagliata
FBC Melgar
🔄
79'
J. Cantt ↔ J. Nunez
UTC Cajamarca
🔄
79'
D. Camacho ↔ M. Rasmussen
UTC Cajamarca
🔄
79'
G. Paredes ↔ S. Galvez
UTC Cajamarca
🔄
83'
N. Cabanillas ↔ A. Ramos
FBC Melgar
🔄
83'
N. Quagliata ↔ J. D'Arrigo
FBC Melgar
🔄
83'
J. Salas ↔ G. Bernaola
FBC Melgar

FBC Melgar vs UTC Cajamarca Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 56.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 94.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 81.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
56.7%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
94.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
81.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
69.4%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
FBC Melgar Win 56.7%
Draw 14.8%
UTC Cajamarca Win 28.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
FBC Melgar1.5
UTC Cajamarca1.39
Recent Form (Last 5)
FBC Melgar FBC Melgar
WWDLW
24 GF / 20 GA
UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca
WLDWL
20 GF / 19 GA
Key Stats
1.6
Average Goals Scored
1.43
1.33
Average Goals Conceded
1.36
10
BTTS Yes
9
10
Over 2.5
7
3.67
Shots on Goal
5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FBC Melgar FBC Melgar 15 matches
UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca 14 matches
FBC Melgar Statistic UTC Cajamarca
7 Wins 5
2 Draws 5
6 Losses 4
24 Goals For 20
20 Goals Against 19
1.6 Avg Goals Scored 1.43
1.33 Avg Goals Conceded 1.36
10 BTTS Yes 9
13 Over 1.5 11
10 Over 2.5 7
6 Over 3.5 5
4 Clean Sheets 3
2 Failed To Score 2
3.67 Shots On Goal 5
12.33 Total Shots 12.92
4.58 Corners 4.25
51.1% Ball Possession 50.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with FBC Melgar's more proactive style and UTC Cajamarca's more cautious structure likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward UTC Cajamarca. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

FBC Melgar Analysis

FBC Melgar sit 7 with 17 points after 12 league matches. Their overall return of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses with goals at 18:16 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by J. Vidales (5 goals), B. Cuesta (3 goals), M. Zegarra (3 goals), with creative support from N. Quagliata (4 assists), M. Zegarra (3 assists), B. Cuesta (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, their split return of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

UTC Cajamarca Analysis

UTC Cajamarca are currently 8 in the standings with 16 points from 12 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, while the 18:18 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Marlon de Jesús (4 goals), D. Camacho (3 goals), A. Arroyo (2 goals), with creative support from M. Lliuya (2 assists), A. Munoz (2 assists), M. Rasmussen (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, FBC Melgar won 7 times, UTC Cajamarca won 3 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:13 from FBC Melgar's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.2%)
Predicted formations: FBC Melgar 4-2-3-1 / UTC Cajamarca 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: FBC Melgar wins 7, draws 4, UTC Cajamarca wins 3

Standings

Primera Division: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 15 8 3 42:18 24 53
L D L D W
2 26 14 7 5 43:27 16 49
W D W W W
3 26 13 6 7 44:28 16 45
W W L D W
4 26 13 6 7 35:24 11 45
L W W W D
5 26 13 3 10 38:37 1 42
L W W L W
6 26 12 5 9 35:44 -9 41
L L L L L
7 25 12 4 9 44:37 7 40
W L L D L
8 26 10 7 9 38:34 4 37
L W W W D
9 26 10 7 9 28:25 3 37
W L W W D
10 26 10 5 11 45:39 6 35
W W L L W
11 26 9 5 12 25:28 -3 32
W L W W W
12 26 9 5 12 34:42 -8 32
W W W L L
13 26 8 7 11 38:52 -14 31
W D W W L
14 26 7 9 10 34:36 -2 30
L D L W L
15 26 7 6 13 40:50 -10 27
W L W L L
16 26 6 7 13 24:37 -13 25
L L L W D
17 25 5 7 13 27:39 -12 22
L L L D D
18 26 4 8 14 30:47 -17 15
L L L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga 2