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RUSSIA › PREMIER LEAGUE
24.10.2026 12:00
Fakel Stadium

Fakel vs Rodina Moskva Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Draw
Probability 34.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Draw
34.7%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
71.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Draw
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Fakel Win 36.3%
Draw 34.7%
Rodina Moskva Win 29%
Expected Goals (xG)
Fakel1.58
Rodina Moskva1.16
Recent Form (Last 5)
Fakel Fakel
WWDLW
28 GF / 32 GA
Rodina Moskva Rodina Moskva
WLDWL
23 GF / 49 GA
Key Stats
1.22
Average Goals Scored
1
1.39
Average Goals Conceded
2.13
13
BTTS Yes
13
11
Over 2.5
15
2.55
Shots on Goal
2.9

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Fakel Fakel 23 matches
Rodina Moskva Rodina Moskva 23 matches
Fakel Statistic Rodina Moskva
6 Wins 3
8 Draws 6
9 Losses 14
28 Goals For 23
32 Goals Against 49
1.22 Avg Goals Scored 1
1.39 Avg Goals Conceded 2.13
13 BTTS Yes 13
14 Over 1.5 19
11 Over 2.5 15
8 Over 3.5 9
5 Clean Sheets 3
7 Failed To Score 9
2.55 Shots On Goal 2.9
11.18 Total Shots 9
5 Corners 3.8
45.4% Ball Possession 43.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Rodina Moskva. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Fakel expected to line up in 3-4-3 and Rodina Moskva in 5-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Rodina Moskva having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Fakel Analysis

Fakel sit 16 with 3 points after 10 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 0 wins, 3 draws, and 7 losses, together with goals at 6:18, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through A. Sutormin (1 goals), V. Yakimov (1 goals), R. Netfullin (1 goals), with creative support from A. Sutormin (1 assists), N. Giorgobiani (1 assists), B. Pusi (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 0 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Rodina Moskva Analysis

With 5 points from 10 games and a place of 15, Rodina Moskva still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 7 defeats with a 10:25 goal balance points toward poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Going forward they depend heavily on A. Maksimenko (3 goals), Iker Pozo (2 goals), A. Gharibyan (2 goals), with creative support from A. Maksimenko (1 assists), Iker Pozo (1 assists), A. Gharibyan (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Fakel won 0 times, Rodina Moskva won 2 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:5 from Fakel's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (71%)
Predicted formations: Fakel 3-4-3 / Rodina Moskva 5-4-1
H2H summary: Fakel wins 0, draws 0, Rodina Moskva wins 2

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 1 2 15:8 7 22
W W W W W
2 10 6 4 0 18:9 9 22
W W D W D
3 10 7 0 3 22:11 11 21
W W W L W
4 10 6 3 1 16:10 6 21
L D D D W
5 10 6 2 2 17:8 9 20
D W W L D
6 10 2 6 2 12:12 0 12
L D D D W
7 10 2 6 2 11:10 1 12
W D L D D
8 10 3 3 4 14:12 2 12
D L D L W
9 10 4 0 6 15:20 -5 12
L L L W L
10 10 2 6 2 14:15 -1 12
D D W D D
11 10 2 5 3 13:13 0 11
D L W D D
12 10 3 2 5 11:17 -6 11
W L L W L
13 10 2 4 4 13:11 2 10
W D L W L
14 10 1 5 4 11:19 -8 8
L W D D D
15 10 1 2 7 10:25 -15 5
L D L L L
16
Fakel Home
10 0 3 7 6:18 -12 3
L L D L L
Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation - FNL