RUSSIA PREMIER LEAGUE
12.09.2026 11:00
Fakel Stadium

Fakel vs Baltika Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 71.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
71.6%
-
BTTS Yes
54.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Fakel Win 24.1%
Draw 4.3%
Baltika Win 71.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Fakel1.06
Baltika1.65
Recent Form (Last 5)
Fakel Fakel
WWDLW
23 GF / 23 GA
Baltika Baltika
WLDWL
36 GF / 14 GA
Key Stats
1.28
Average Goals Scored
1.89
1.28
Average Goals Conceded
0.74
11
BTTS Yes
8
8
Over 2.5
10
2.29
Shots on Goal
4.71

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Fakel Fakel 18 matches
Baltika Baltika 19 matches
Fakel Statistic Baltika
4 Wins 11
7 Draws 4
7 Losses 4
23 Goals For 36
23 Goals Against 14
1.28 Avg Goals Scored 1.89
1.28 Avg Goals Conceded 0.74
11 BTTS Yes 8
11 Over 1.5 14
8 Over 2.5 10
6 Over 3.5 4
4 Clean Sheets 10
5 Failed To Score 2
2.29 Shots On Goal 4.71
10.43 Total Shots 12.86
4.86 Corners 4.29
48.6% Ball Possession 36.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Baltika's more proactive style and Fakel's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Fakel expected to line up in 3-4-3 and Baltika in 5-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Baltika having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Fakel have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Baltika. Baltika carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 5 with 10 points while Fakel sit 16 on 2, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Fakel Analysis

Fakel sit 16 with 2 points after 6 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, together with goals at 3:7, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Vyacheslav Yakimov (1 goals), Alexey Sutormin (1 goals), Maksim Turishchev (1 goals), with creative support from Nikolay Giorgobiani (1 assists), Belajdi Pusi (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 0 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Baltika Analysis

Baltika approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 5 on 10 points after 6 outings. The return of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 2 defeats, together with goals at 10:6, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through Nnamdi Chinonso Offor (2 goals), Brayan Gil (2 goals), Sergey Varatynov (1 goals), with creative support from Nathan Gassama (2 assists), Sergey Varatynov (1 assists), Nikolay Titkov (1 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, they have managed 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Fakel won 4 times, Baltika won 7 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:17 from Fakel's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.7%)
Predicted formations: Fakel 3-4-3 / Baltika 5-4-1
H2H summary: Fakel wins 4, draws 4, Baltika wins 7

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 7 6 1 0 13:6 7 19
D W W W W
2 7 4 3 0 11:7 4 15
W D W W D
3 7 4 1 2 10:8 2 13
W W W L W
4 7 4 1 2 12:7 5 13
L D W W L
5 7 4 0 3 14:6 8 12
L W L W L
6 7 4 0 3 12:10 2 12
W L L W L
7 7 3 1 3 10:7 3 10
L W D L W
8 7 2 4 1 10:9 1 10
D W D D D
9 7 2 2 3 10:11 -1 8
W L L D D
10 7 1 5 1 7:9 -2 8
D D D D D
11 7 1 4 2 10:9 1 7
D D W L D
12 7 1 4 2 10:12 -2 7
D D W L L
13 7 1 3 3 6:8 -2 6
W L L D D
14 7 1 1 5 8:19 -11 4
L L L D W
15 7 0 4 3 8:17 -9 4
D D L D D
16
Fakel Home
7 0 2 5 4:10 -6 2
L L D L D
Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation - FNL