JAPAN J1 LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
City Light Stadium
Referee: R. Tanimoto
Fagiano Okayama
Match Timeline
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
28'
Takaya Kimura
Fagiano Okayama
🔄
46'
A. Suzuki ↔ K. Kinoshita
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
🔄
46'
S. Higashi ↔ N. Arai
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
🔄
55'
T. Kimura ↔ J. Nishikawa
Fagiano Okayama
🔄
55'
Lucao ↔ Leo Gaucho
Fagiano Okayama
🟨
58'
Arai Naoto
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
🔄
60'
T. Arslan ↔ S. Nakamura
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
🔄
63'
M. Matsumoto ↔ H. Motoyama
Fagiano Okayama
🔄
63'
H. Araki ↔ S. Sasaki
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
VAR
66'
Shuto Nakano
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
🔄
73'
R. Takeuchi ↔ A. Esaka
Fagiano Okayama
🔄
73'
K. Kawano ↔ K. Ichimi
Fagiano Okayama
🟨
75'
Kazunari Ichimi
Fagiano Okayama
83'
Leo Gaucho · Assist: T. Yamane
Fagiano Okayama
🔄
86'
T. Yamasaki ↔ M. Kato
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
🟨
90+1'
Léo Gaúcho
Fagiano Okayama

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 92.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 80%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 51.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
92.6%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
80%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
51.3%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Fagiano Okayama Win 48.3%
Draw 7.4%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima Win 44.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Fagiano Okayama1.24
Sanfrecce Hiroshima1.54
Recent Form (Last 5)
Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama
WWDLW
15 GF / 21 GA
Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima
WLDWL
22 GF / 21 GA
Key Stats
1.07
Average Goals Scored
1.57
1.5
Average Goals Conceded
1.5
10
BTTS Yes
11
5
Over 2.5
9
3.15
Shots on Goal
4.92

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 14 matches
Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 14 matches
Fagiano Okayama Statistic Sanfrecce Hiroshima
3 Wins 5
6 Draws 3
5 Losses 6
15 Goals For 22
21 Goals Against 21
1.07 Avg Goals Scored 1.57
1.5 Avg Goals Conceded 1.5
10 BTTS Yes 11
11 Over 1.5 13
5 Over 2.5 9
3 Over 3.5 4
2 Clean Sheets 2
2 Failed To Score 1
3.15 Shots On Goal 4.92
11.69 Total Shots 16.69
5.31 Corners 6.23
40.8% Ball Possession 55.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Sanfrecce Hiroshima's more proactive style and Fagiano Okayama's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Sanfrecce Hiroshima. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Fagiano Okayama have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors.

Fagiano Okayama Analysis

Fagiano Okayama sit 8 with 17 points after 13 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 5 wins, 0 draws, and 8 losses, together with goals at 17:24, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through A. Esaka (2 goals), M. Matsumoto (2 goals), Takaya Kimura (2 goals), with creative support from K. Shirai (2 assists), K. Ogura (2 assists), A. Esaka (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima Analysis

Sanfrecce Hiroshima come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 4 place with 20 points after 13 matches. They have recorded 7 wins, 0 draws, and 6 losses, with a 21:18 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on A. Suzuki (3 goals), K. Kinoshita (3 goals), R. Germain (3 goals), with creative support from A. Suzuki (2 assists), S. Higashi (2 assists), H. Kawabe (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, their record of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Fagiano Okayama won 2 times, Sanfrecce Hiroshima won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:2 from Fagiano Okayama's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 1.25 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.6%)
Predicted formations: Fagiano Okayama 3-4-2-1 / Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Fagiano Okayama wins 2, draws 1, Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins 1
Stats
Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama
Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Shots on Goal
2
Shots on Goal
2
Shots off Goal
6
Shots off Goal
6
Blocked Shots
5
Blocked Shots
3
5 Corner Kicks 4
17 Fouls 9
3 Offsides 2
40% Ball Possession 60%
13 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Goal 2
6 Shots off Goal 6
5 Blocked Shots 3
10 Shots insidebox 10
3 Shots outsidebox 1
2 Goalkeeper Saves 1
285 Total passes 438
200 Passes accurate 339
0 expected_goals 0
🟨 3 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Fagiano Okayama
Formation
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
T. Hamada
T. Hamada
H. Omori
H. Omori
Y. Tatsuta
Y. Tatsuta
Y. Suzuki
Y. Suzuki
M. Matsumoto
M. Matsumoto
R. Takeuchi
R. Takeuchi
E. Miyamoto
E. Miyamoto
T. Yamane
🎯
T. Yamane
T. Kimura
T. Kimura
K. Kawano
K. Kawano
Lucao
Lucao
K. Osako
K. Osako
T. Shiotani
T. Shiotani
H. Araki
H. Araki
T. Yamasaki
T. Yamasaki
S. Nakano
S. Nakano
H. Kawabe
H. Kawabe
T. Matsumoto
T. Matsumoto
S. Higashi
S. Higashi
N. Maeda
N. Maeda
T. Arslan
T. Arslan
A. Suzuki
A. Suzuki
Fagiano Okayama 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
52
T. Hamada
G
6
H. Omori
D
48
Y. Tatsuta
D
43
Y. Suzuki
D
28
M. Matsumoto
↓ 63'
M
7
R. Takeuchi
↓ 73'
M
41
E. Miyamoto
M
88
T. Yamane
🎯 83'
M
27
T. Kimura
↓ 55' 🟨 28'
F
40
K. Kawano
↓ 73'
F
99
Lucao
↓ 55'
F
Substitutes
77
G. Kawanami
G
8
A. Esaka
↑ 73'
M
66
J. Nishikawa
↑ 55'
M
17
R. Sueyoshi
M
5
K. Ogura
M
22
K. Ichimi
↑ 73' 🟨 75'
F
45
N. Browne
M
9
Leo Gaucho
⚽ 83' ↑ 55'
26
H. Motoyama
↑ 63'
D
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
1
K. Osako
G
33
T. Shiotani
D
4
H. Araki
↓ 63'
D
3
T. Yamasaki
↓ 86'
D
15
S. Nakano
M
6
H. Kawabe
M
14
T. Matsumoto
M
24
S. Higashi
↓ 46'
M
41
N. Maeda
F
30
T. Arslan
↓ 60'
F
10
A. Suzuki
↓ 46'
F
Substitutes
99
I. Ouchi
G
11
M. Kato
↑ 86'
39
S. Nakamura
↑ 60'
F
19
S. Sasaki
↑ 63'
D
17
K. Kinoshita
↑ 46'
F
25
Y. Chajima
M
13
N. Arai
↑ 46' 🟨 58'
D
40
M. Ohara
M
35
Y. Nakajima
M
Last matches: Fagiano Okayama
06.06.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Urawa
2
0
W
31.05.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Urawa
1
1
D
24.05.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Cerezo Osaka
2
3
L
17.05.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Shimizu S-pulse
2
0
W
10.05.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Vissel Kobe
3
0
W
06.05.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
V-varen Nagasaki
1
2
L
29.04.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Nagoya Grampus
1
1
D
25.04.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Avispa Fukuoka
2
0
W
19.04.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Gamba Osaka
2
2
D
11.04.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Kyoto Sanga
1
5
L
05.04.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Vissel Kobe
1
4
L
21.03.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
V-varen Nagasaki
0
1
L
18.03.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Cerezo Osaka
2
1
W
14.03.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Shimizu S-pulse
1
1
D
08.03.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Kyoto Sanga
1
0
W
01.03.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Nagoya Grampus
1
1
D
22.02.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Gamba Osaka
1
2
L
14.02.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1
1
D
08.02.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Avispa Fukuoka
1
1
D
20.01.26
Fri
Fagiano Okayama
Kashima
0
1
L
Last matches: Sanfrecce Hiroshima
06.06.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Kawasaki Frontale
1
0
W
30.05.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Kawasaki Frontale
2
1
W
23.05.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Nagoya Grampus
4
2
W
17.05.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Kyoto Sanga
4
0
W
10.05.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Gamba Osaka
1
0
W
06.05.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Vissel Kobe
1
1
D
29.04.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Avispa Fukuoka
2
2
D
25.04.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Cerezo Osaka
2
1
W
18.04.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
V-varen Nagasaki
2
0
W
11.04.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Shimizu S-pulse
1
1
D
05.04.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Avispa Fukuoka
0
1
L
27.03.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Vissel Kobe
1
2
L
22.03.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Shimizu S-pulse
1
3
L
18.03.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Nagoya Grampus
1
2
L
14.03.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Gamba Osaka
2
0
W
27.02.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Kyoto Sanga
1
2
L
22.02.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Cerezo Osaka
2
1
W
14.02.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Fagiano Okayama
1
1
D
06.02.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
V-varen Nagasaki
3
1
W
18.01.26
Fri
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
FC Tokyo
3
4
L
H2H: Fagiano Okayama vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
02.05.26
H2H
Fagiano Okayama
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1
0
W
14.02.26
H2H
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Fagiano Okayama
1
1
D
05.07.25
H2H
Fagiano Okayama
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
0
1
L
12.04.25
H2H
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Fagiano Okayama
0
1
W
Last matches: Fagiano Okayama
31.05.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Urawa
1
1
D
24.05.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Cerezo Osaka
2
3
L
17.05.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Shimizu S-pulse
2
0
W
25.04.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Avispa Fukuoka
2
0
W
05.04.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Vissel Kobe
1
4
L
21.03.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
V-varen Nagasaki
0
1
L
08.03.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Kyoto Sanga
1
0
W
01.03.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Nagoya Grampus
1
1
D
22.02.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Gamba Osaka
1
2
L
H2H at home: Fagiano Okayama
02.05.26
H2H
Fagiano Okayama
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1
0
W
05.07.25
H2H
Fagiano Okayama
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
0
1
L
Last matches: Sanfrecce Hiroshima
06.06.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Kawasaki Frontale
1
0
W
17.05.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Kyoto Sanga
4
0
W
10.05.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Gamba Osaka
1
0
W
29.04.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Avispa Fukuoka
2
2
D
27.03.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Vissel Kobe
1
2
L
22.03.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Shimizu S-pulse
1
3
L
18.03.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Nagoya Grampus
1
2
L
22.02.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Cerezo Osaka
2
1
W
06.02.26
J1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
V-varen Nagasaki
3
1
W
18.01.26
Fri
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
FC Tokyo
3
4
L
H2H away: Sanfrecce Hiroshima
02.05.26
H2H
Fagiano Okayama
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1
0
L
05.07.25
H2H
Fagiano Okayama
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
0
1
W

Standings

West
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 11 0 7 29:25 4 35
?
2 18 11 0 7 30:21 9 31
?
3 18 10 0 8 33:31 2 31
?
4 18 10 0 8 31:23 8 30
?
5 18 10 0 8 31:25 6 28
?
6 18 8 0 10 26:29 -3 26
?
7 18 8 0 10 23:25 -2 24
?
8 18 8 0 10 22:28 -6 23
?
9 18 7 0 11 21:29 -8 21
?
10 18 7 0 11 21:31 -10 21
?
Promotion - J1 League (Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 3rd place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 5th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 7th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 9th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 11th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 13th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 15th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 17th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 19th place)