Login Register
JAPAN › J1 LEAGUE
21.10.2026 10:00
JFE Harenokuni Stadium

Fagiano Okayama vs Mito Hollyhock Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 60.7%
Odds 1.75
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds 1.95
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 2.03
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
60.7%
1.75 ▥
BTTS Yes
86%
1.95 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
2.03 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
81.3%
1.34 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.75 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Fagiano Okayama Win 60.7%
Draw 10.9%
Mito Hollyhock Win 28.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Fagiano Okayama1.28
Mito Hollyhock1.32
Recent Form (Last 5)
Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama
WWDLW
12 GF / 15 GA
Mito Hollyhock Mito Hollyhock
WLDWL
12 GF / 14 GA
Key Stats
1.2
Average Goals Scored
1.2
1.5
Average Goals Conceded
1.4
7
BTTS Yes
7
8
Over 2.5
4
3.3
Shots on Goal
3.2

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 10 matches
Mito Hollyhock Mito Hollyhock 10 matches
Fagiano Okayama Statistic Mito Hollyhock
4 Wins 2
1 Draws 3
5 Losses 5
12 Goals For 12
15 Goals Against 14
1.2 Avg Goals Scored 1.2
1.5 Avg Goals Conceded 1.4
7 BTTS Yes 7
8 Over 1.5 8
8 Over 2.5 4
1 Over 3.5 2
2 Clean Sheets 0
2 Failed To Score 3
3.3 Shots On Goal 3.2
14.2 Total Shots 10.3
6.3 Corners 4.2
44% Ball Possession 42%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Mito Hollyhock. Mito Hollyhock arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Fagiano Okayama expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Mito Hollyhock in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Mito Hollyhock having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Fagiano Okayama Analysis

Fagiano Okayama sit 9 with 13 points after 9 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses, while the 12:12 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on K. Kawano (3 goals), Y. Tatsuta (1 goals), N. Browne (1 goals), with creative support from H. Motoyama (3 assists), Lucão (2 assists), Y. Tatsuta (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, their split return of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Mito Hollyhock Analysis

Mito Hollyhock sit 13 with 9 points after 9 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 3 draws, and 4 defeats, and the 12:13 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on A. Watanabe (4 goals), Y. Kimoto (2 goals), C. Kato (2 goals), with creative support from Y. Torikai (2 assists), T. Semba (2 assists), K. Taniguchi (2 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Fagiano Okayama won 4 times, Mito Hollyhock won 6 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:14 from Fagiano Okayama's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 1.67 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.1%)
Predicted formations: Fagiano Okayama 3-4-2-1 / Mito Hollyhock 4-4-2
H2H summary: Fagiano Okayama wins 4, draws 5, Mito Hollyhock wins 6

Standings

J-League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 25:6 19 23
W W W W L
2 10 7 2 1 25:10 15 23
W W L D W
3 10 7 2 1 21:8 13 23
W W W W W
4 10 7 1 2 17:9 8 22
W L W W W
5 10 7 0 3 22:17 5 21
L W W W L
6 10 6 1 3 21:16 5 19
W W D L L
7 10 4 4 2 21:16 5 16
W L D W W
8 10 4 4 2 13:9 4 16
D D W D W
9 10 5 0 5 17:21 -4 15
W L W L W
10 10 4 2 4 10:11 -1 14
D W W W L
11 10 4 1 5 12:15 -3 13
L L L W W
12 10 4 0 6 12:16 -4 12
W W L L L
13 10 3 3 4 9:16 -7 12
L D D L D
14 10 2 3 5 12:14 -2 9
L L L L D
15 10 2 3 5 11:18 -7 9
L D D W L
16 10 2 2 6 11:19 -8 8
L L W L L
17 10 2 1 7 11:16 -5 7
L W L L D
18 10 1 4 5 10:18 -8 7
D L L L L
19 10 1 3 6 8:19 -11 6
D D L D W
20 10 0 4 6 4:18 -14 4
L L L D D
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - J2 League