UGANDA PREMIER LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Hamz Stadium
Express
Match Timeline
Kitara
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
15'
M. Ssenyonga
Express
28'
K. Kimera
Express
31'
H. Wamala
Express
34'
C. Asiki
Kitara
84'
J. Kalema
Kitara

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 55.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 83.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 59.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
55.9%
-
BTTS BTTS No
83.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
59.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Express Win 35.2%
Draw 8.9%
Kitara Win 55.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Express0.81
Kitara1.21
Recent Form (Last 5)
Express Express
WWDLW
25 GF / 27 GA
Kitara Kitara
WLDWL
35 GF / 16 GA
Key Stats
0.93
Average Goals Scored
1.35
1
Average Goals Conceded
0.62
8
BTTS Yes
8
10
Over 2.5
7
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Express Express 27 matches
Kitara Kitara 26 matches
Express Statistic Kitara
8 Wins 15
9 Draws 6
10 Losses 5
25 Goals For 35
27 Goals Against 16
0.93 Avg Goals Scored 1.35
1 Avg Goals Conceded 0.62
8 BTTS Yes 8
15 Over 1.5 13
10 Over 2.5 7
6 Over 3.5 4
11 Clean Sheets 13
15 Failed To Score 7
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Kitara's more proactive style and Express's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Kitara carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 54 points while Express sit 10 on 33, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Kitara having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Kitara. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Express Analysis

Express are currently 10 in the standings with 33 points from 27 matches. The record of 8 wins, 9 draws, and 10 defeats, together with a 25:27 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through M. K. Ssenoga (8 goals), R. Basangwa (6 goals), K. Kimera (4 goals), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, the record of 6 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Kitara Analysis

Placed 3 with 54 points from 27 outings, Kitara continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 16 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses with goals at 38:16 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by P. Kaddu (9 goals), G. Ssenkaaba (4 goals), G. Wahab (4 goals), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their split return of 6 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Express won 4 times, Kitara won 4 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:13 from Express's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.88 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91.1%)
H2H summary: Express wins 4, draws 0, Kitara wins 4

Lineups

No lineup data available
Last matches: Express
23.05.26
Pre
Express
Vipers
0
2
L
19.05.26
Pre
Express
Lugazi
0
0
D
08.05.26
Pre
Express
Buhimba Saints
2
0
W
28.04.26
Pre
Express
Mbarara City
1
2
L
24.04.26
Pre
Express
BUL
0
2
L
21.04.26
Pre
Express
NEC
0
0
D
15.04.26
Pre
Express
UPDF
1
0
W
08.04.26
Pre
Express
Police
3
1
W
14.03.26
Pre
Express
URA
3
1
W
11.03.26
Pre
Express
KCCA
0
3
L
07.03.26
Pre
Express
SC Villa
0
0
D
04.03.26
Pre
Express
Maroons
1
1
D
18.02.26
Pre
Express
Calvary
0
0
D
14.02.26
Pre
Express
Entebbe UPPC
0
0
D
31.01.26
Pre
Express
NEC
0
0
D
28.01.26
Pre
Express
Kitara
0
1
L
24.01.26
Pre
Express
Buhimba Saints
3
1
W
08.01.26
Pre
Express
SC Villa
0
1
L
17.12.25
Pre
Express
Maroons
0
4
L
11.12.25
Pre
Express
Entebbe UPPC
0
2
L
Last matches: Kitara
23.05.26
Pre
Kitara
Police
2
2
D
19.05.26
Pre
Kitara
BUL
1
1
D
09.05.26
Pre
Kitara
NEC
0
1
L
30.04.26
Pre
Kitara
SC Villa
2
0
W
25.04.26
Pre
Kitara
Lugazi
2
1
W
22.04.26
Pre
Kitara
Calvary
0
0
D
17.04.26
Pre
Kitara
KCCA
0
1
L
10.04.26
Pre
Kitara
Vipers
0
0
D
13.03.26
Pre
Kitara
Buhimba Saints
4
0
W
10.03.26
Pre
Kitara
Mbarara City
1
0
W
06.03.26
Pre
Kitara
UPDF
1
1
D
03.03.26
Pre
Kitara
Entebbe UPPC
2
0
W
19.02.26
Pre
Kitara
URA
1
1
D
12.02.26
Pre
Kitara
Maroons
1
0
W
31.01.26
Pre
Kitara
Calvary
1
0
W
28.01.26
Pre
Kitara
Express
1
0
W
24.01.26
Pre
Kitara
NEC
3
3
D
07.01.26
Pre
Kitara
UPDF
2
1
W
18.12.25
Pre
Kitara
Entebbe UPPC
0
1
L
12.12.25
Pre
Kitara
Maroons
2
0
W
H2H: Express vs Kitara
12.05.26
H2H
Express
Kitara
3
2
W
28.01.26
H2H
Kitara
Express
1
0
L
06.05.25
H2H
Express
Kitara
1
0
W
21.12.24
H2H
Kitara
Express
7
0
L
24.04.24
H2H
Express
Kitara
1
2
L
12.12.23
H2H
Kitara
Express
1
0
L
21.05.21
H2H
Express
Kitara
4
0
W
02.03.21
H2H
Kitara
Express
0
1
W
Last matches: Express
19.05.26
Pre
Express
Lugazi
0
0
D
24.04.26
Pre
Express
BUL
0
2
L
21.04.26
Pre
Express
NEC
0
0
D
08.04.26
Pre
Express
Police
3
1
W
14.03.26
Pre
Express
URA
3
1
W
04.03.26
Pre
Express
Maroons
1
1
D
14.02.26
Pre
Express
Entebbe UPPC
0
0
D
24.01.26
Pre
Express
Buhimba Saints
3
1
W
08.01.26
Pre
Express
SC Villa
0
1
L
04.12.25
Pre
Express
Calvary
4
0
W
26.11.25
Pre
Express
Vipers
0
3
L
05.11.25
Pre
Express
Mbarara City
4
1
W
23.10.25
Pre
Express
KCCA
0
1
L
26.09.25
Pre
Express
UPDF
1
0
W
H2H at home: Express
12.05.26
H2H
Express
Kitara
3
2
W
06.05.25
H2H
Express
Kitara
1
0
W
24.04.24
H2H
Express
Kitara
1
2
L
21.05.21
H2H
Express
Kitara
4
0
W
Last matches: Kitara
19.05.26
Pre
Kitara
BUL
1
1
D
25.04.26
Pre
Kitara
Lugazi
2
1
W
17.04.26
Pre
Kitara
KCCA
0
1
L
10.04.26
Pre
Kitara
Vipers
0
0
D
10.03.26
Pre
Kitara
Mbarara City
1
0
W
06.03.26
Pre
Kitara
UPDF
1
1
D
12.02.26
Pre
Kitara
Maroons
1
0
W
31.01.26
Pre
Kitara
Calvary
1
0
W
24.01.26
Pre
Kitara
NEC
3
3
D
18.12.25
Pre
Kitara
Entebbe UPPC
0
1
L
04.12.25
Pre
Kitara
URA
1
0
W
27.11.25
Pre
Kitara
Police
2
1
W
06.11.25
Pre
Kitara
SC Villa
0
1
L
16.10.25
Pre
Kitara
Buhimba Saints
0
1
L
H2H away: Kitara
12.05.26
H2H
Express
Kitara
3
2
L
06.05.25
H2H
Express
Kitara
1
0
L
24.04.24
H2H
Express
Kitara
1
2
W
21.05.21
H2H
Express
Kitara
4
0
L

Standings

# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 19 10 1 55:17 38 67
W W D D D
2 30 19 5 6 46:22 24 62
W D W W D
3 30 18 7 5 47:17 30 61
W W W D L
4 30 16 8 6 43:22 21 56
D D L L W
5 30 14 9 7 30:20 10 51
W D D W W
6 30 13 12 5 31:22 9 51
L L W W W
7 30 13 8 9 42:35 7 47
D D D L W
8 30 9 11 10 26:27 -1 38
W L D L D
9 30 9 10 11 30:33 -3 37
L D D D L
10 30 9 10 11 28:31 -3 37
L D W W L
11 30 5 16 9 27:30 -3 31
W D D D D
12 30 6 9 15 26:46 -20 27
L W L W W
13 30 5 10 15 19:36 -17 25
L D D L W
14 30 5 7 18 24:41 -17 22
L D L L L
15 30 4 9 17 14:39 -25 21
W D D W L
16 30 4 3 23 16:66 -50 15
L L L L L