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ENGLAND › LEAGUE TWO
24.10.2026 14:00
St James Park

Exeter City vs Fleetwood Town Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 54.1%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 55%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 72.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
54.1%
- ▥
BTTS No
55%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
72.8%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Exeter City Win 54.1%
Draw 16.2%
Fleetwood Town Win 29.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Exeter City0.73
Fleetwood Town1.08
Recent Form (Last 5)
Exeter City Exeter City
WWDLW
10 GF / 10 GA
Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town
WLDWL
23 GF / 14 GA
Key Stats
0.67
Average Goals Scored
1.35
0.67
Average Goals Conceded
0.82
4
BTTS Yes
8
2
Over 2.5
5
3.09
Shots on Goal
3.82

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Exeter City Exeter City 15 matches
Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town 17 matches
Exeter City Statistic Fleetwood Town
4 Wins 7
5 Draws 6
6 Losses 4
10 Goals For 23
10 Goals Against 14
0.67 Avg Goals Scored 1.35
0.67 Avg Goals Conceded 0.82
4 BTTS Yes 8
6 Over 1.5 12
2 Over 2.5 5
0 Over 3.5 3
7 Clean Sheets 7
7 Failed To Score 3
3.09 Shots On Goal 3.82
10.27 Total Shots 14.73
4.36 Corners 5.36
45.8% Ball Possession 49.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Exeter City expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Fleetwood Town in 3-1-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Fleetwood Town having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Fleetwood Town arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Fleetwood Town. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Exeter City Analysis

Exeter City sit 14 with 12 points after 10 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 4 defeats with a 6:6 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on J. Fitzwater (2 goals), S. Cox (1 goals), A. Scully (1 goals), with creative support from George Birch (2 assists), L. Woodhouse (1 assists), A. Oluwabori (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, the split record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Fleetwood Town Analysis

Fleetwood Town approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 16 with 11 points from 10 matches. Their record of 2 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses, together with goals at 10:11, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through R. Coughlan (2 goals), A. Loupalo-Bi (2 goals), W. Davies (2 goals), with creative support from C. Evans (2 assists), R. Coughlan (1 assists), A. Loupalo-Bi (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Exeter City won 3 times, Fleetwood Town won 1 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:10 from Exeter City's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.75 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (83.8%)
Predicted formations: Exeter City 4-2-3-1 / Fleetwood Town 3-1-4-2
H2H summary: Exeter City wins 3, draws 4, Fleetwood Town wins 1

Standings

League Two
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 11 7 1 3 17:11 6 22
W W W W W
2 9 6 3 0 22:12 10 21
W W W W D
3 11 5 6 0 15:9 6 21
W W W D D
4 10 4 4 2 18:12 6 16
D D W L W
5 10 3 7 0 13:7 6 16
D D D W D
6 11 4 4 3 16:13 3 16
L W D L W
7 11 4 3 4 17:15 2 15
L D W L W
8 11 4 3 4 17:20 -3 15
L L L W D
9 11 5 0 6 15:18 -3 15
L L L W L
10 11 3 5 3 16:15 1 14
W D W D D
11 11 3 5 3 14:13 1 14
D W D W D
12 11 3 5 3 12:11 1 14
W D L L L
13 11 4 2 5 13:15 -2 14
L D W W W
14 11 4 2 5 10:15 -5 14
W L W D D
15 11 3 4 4 13:13 0 13
L L L L W
16 11 3 4 4 6:6 0 13
D W W L D
17 11 2 6 3 14:15 -1 12
L D L D D
18 11 3 3 5 10:15 -5 12
D L L D L
19 10 3 2 5 13:14 -1 11
W D L L L
20 10 2 5 3 10:13 -3 11
D L D D D
21 9 3 2 4 5:9 -4 11
W W L W L
22 9 2 4 3 6:7 -1 10
W D L L W
23 11 2 4 5 12:18 -6 10
L L L D W
24 9 1 2 6 9:17 -8 5
L D L L L
Promotion - League One
Promotion - League Two (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Relegation - National League