26.09.2026 20:00
Excursionistas Stadium

Excursionistas vs Real Pilar Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 62.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
62.7%
-
BTTS Yes
58.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Excursionistas Win 62.7%
Draw 3.1%
Real Pilar Win 34.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Excursionistas1.35
Real Pilar0.97
Recent Form (Last 5)
Excursionistas Excursionistas
WWDLW
56 GF / 29 GA
Real Pilar Real Pilar
WLDWL
40 GF / 38 GA
Key Stats
1.56
Average Goals Scored
1.08
0.81
Average Goals Conceded
1.03
16
BTTS Yes
19
14
Over 2.5
14
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Excursionistas Excursionistas 36 matches
Real Pilar Real Pilar 37 matches
Excursionistas Statistic Real Pilar
21 Wins 16
8 Draws 10
7 Losses 11
56 Goals For 40
29 Goals Against 38
1.56 Avg Goals Scored 1.08
0.81 Avg Goals Conceded 1.03
16 BTTS Yes 19
25 Over 1.5 25
14 Over 2.5 14
6 Over 3.5 4
15 Clean Sheets 11
7 Failed To Score 11
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Real Pilar. Excursionistas come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Real Pilar having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Excursionistas Analysis

Excursionistas come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 68 points after 35 matches. With 20 wins, 8 draws, and 7 defeats plus a goal balance of 54:28, they continue to show very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking quality is driven by their main attacking players, and at the back they have appeared fairly stable. At home, the split of 12 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Real Pilar Analysis

Real Pilar sit 7 with 55 points after 35 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 15 wins, 10 draws, and 10 losses, while the 38:34 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 8 wins, 6 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Excursionistas won 6 times, Real Pilar won 3 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:12 from Excursionistas's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.55 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.9%)
H2H summary: Excursionistas wins 6, draws 2, Real Pilar wins 3

Standings

Prim B Metro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 36 21 8 7 56:29 27 71
W W W L W
2 36 18 12 6 48:24 24 66
L W W W W
3 36 18 10 8 37:19 18 64
D L W W D
4 36 17 12 7 42:24 18 63
L L W D W
5 36 17 12 7 38:21 17 63
W L L D D
6 36 16 11 9 41:27 14 59
D L W W L
7 36 16 10 10 40:35 5 58
W W L D W
8 36 15 9 12 38:38 0 54
W W D W L
9 36 14 11 11 38:33 5 53
W D W W L
10 36 12 12 12 43:47 -4 48
L D D D W
11 36 11 14 11 35:37 -2 47
W W D L W
12 36 10 14 12 38:38 0 44
D L L W W
13 36 11 11 14 32:36 -4 44
W L L D L
14 36 10 13 13 36:50 -14 43
W L D L L
15 36 9 14 13 35:39 -4 41
D D D L W
16 36 9 14 13 29:36 -7 41
D W L L L
17 36 9 13 14 30:37 -7 40
L W D D W
18 36 10 8 18 32:45 -13 38
L W L W L
19 36 8 13 15 31:38 -7 37
L W D D W
20 36 7 14 15 21:37 -16 35
D L D D L
21 36 4 19 13 18:33 -15 31
L L W L L
22 36 1 12 23 23:58 -35 15
L D L L L
Promotion - Primera Nacional
Promotion - Primera B (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Primera C (Apertura)