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ENGLAND › PREMIER LEAGUE
17.10.2026 11:30
Hill Dickinson Stadium
Referee: Paul Tierney, England
Everton
Match Timeline
Chelsea
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
23'
Harrison Armstrong
Everton
🟨
27'
Pedro Neto
Chelsea
🟨
32'
Josh Acheampong
Chelsea
🟨
34'
James Tarkowski
Everton
🟨
34'
Morgan Rogers
Chelsea
⚽
46'
Pedro Neto
Chelsea
🔄
55'
Ainsley Maitland-Niles ↔ Tyrique George
Everton
🟨
65'
Cole Palmer
Chelsea
🔄
75'
Emiliano Martínez ↔ Mike Penders
Chelsea
🔄
85'
Harrison Armstrong ↔ Christian Nørgaard
Everton
🔄
85'
Jack Grealish ↔ Brennan Johnson
Everton
🟨
89'
Christian Nørgaard
Everton
⚽
90'
Pedro Neto
Chelsea
🔄
90+2'
João Pedro ↔ Danny Welbeck
Chelsea
🔄
90+2'
Jorrel Hato ↔ Marco Palestra
Chelsea
🔄
90+2'
Moises Caicedo ↔ Romeo Lavia
Chelsea
🔄
90+12'
Pedro Neto ↔ Geovany Quenda
Chelsea

Everton vs Chelsea Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 59.8%
Odds 3.00
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds 1.53
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 1.67
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
59.8%
3.00 ▥
BTTS Yes
71.2%
1.53 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
1.67 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.16 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
5.00 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
12.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Everton Win 59.8%
Draw 10.9%
Chelsea Win 29.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Everton1.68
Chelsea1.92
Recent Form (Last 5)
Everton Everton
D W D D D
6 GF / 5 GA
Chelsea Chelsea
W L D L W
12 GF / 11 GA
Key Stats
1.46
Average Goals Scored
2.58
0.92
Average Goals Conceded
2
7
BTTS Yes
9
6
Over 2.5
11
5
Shots on Goal
5.33

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Everton Everton 13 matches
Chelsea Chelsea 12 matches
Everton Statistic Chelsea
5 Wins 6
6 Draws 2
2 Losses 4
19 Goals For 31
12 Goals Against 24
1.46 Avg Goals Scored 2.58
0.92 Avg Goals Conceded 2
7 BTTS Yes 9
9 Over 1.5 11
6 Over 2.5 11
5 Over 3.5 7
5 Clean Sheets 1
3 Failed To Score 2
5 Shots On Goal 5.33
15.83 Total Shots 13.67
5.17 Corners 5.67
47.2% Ball Possession 47.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between Everton's more proactive style and Chelsea's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Chelsea. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Everton expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Chelsea in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Chelsea having the stronger overall control.

Everton Analysis

Everton are currently 7 in the standings with 9 points from 5 matches. The record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 0 defeats, together with a 6:3 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through T. Barry (2 goals), J. Tarkowski (1 goals), K. Dewsbury-Hall (1 goals), with creative support from J. Tarkowski (1 assists), H. Armstrong (1 assists), I. Ndiaye (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Chelsea Analysis

From their first 5 matches, Chelsea have collected 7 points and now occupy 10 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 2 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, while the 10:12 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on João Pedro (3 goals), M. Rogers (3 goals), C. Palmer (2 goals), with creative support from João Pedro (3 assists), C. Palmer (2 assists), J. Hato (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Everton won 6 times, Chelsea won 6 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:20 from Everton's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.1%)
Predicted formations: Everton 4-2-3-1 / Chelsea 3-4-2-1
Missing players: Everton 1, Chelsea 3
H2H summary: Everton wins 6, draws 3, Chelsea wins 6

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 8 7 0 1 20:9 11 21
L W W W W
2 7 6 0 1 11:5 6 18
W W L W W
3 7 5 1 1 23:5 18 16
W W W W D
4 7 4 1 2 17:13 4 13
W W L D L
5 7 3 3 1 9:8 1 12
W L W D W
6 8 3 2 3 9:12 -3 11
W W D W L
7 7 2 4 1 13:8 5 10
L D W D D
8 7 2 4 1 9:6 3 10
D L D W D
9 7 2 4 1 8:7 1 10
L D W D D
10 8 3 1 4 12:16 -4 10
D L W L W
11 7 2 3 2 8:7 1 9
L D L D D
12 7 2 2 3 10:14 -4 8
L L W L D
13 7 1 4 2 10:10 0 7
D D D L D
14 7 2 1 4 9:17 -8 7
L W D L W
15 7 1 3 3 9:13 -4 6
W L L D D
16 7 1 3 3 6:10 -4 6
W D L D D
17 8 1 3 4 6:10 -4 6
D L L L W
18 7 2 0 5 6:14 -8 6
L W W L L
19 7 1 2 4 7:10 -3 5
W L D D L
20 7 1 1 5 6:14 -8 4
L L L L D
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Relegation - Championship