10.05.2026 20:00
Estadio Jorge Luis Hirschi
Referee: S. Martinez
Estudiantes L.P.
Match Timeline
Racing Club
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
27'
A. Forneris ↔ B. Zuculini
Racing Club
🟨
38'
Ezequiel Piovi
Estudiantes L.P.
🟨
40'
Matías Zaracho
Racing Club
🟨
46'
Adrián Fernández
Racing Club
🔄
56'
Gabriel Neves ↔ A. Castro
Estudiantes L.P.
🟨
72'
Bruno Zuculini
Racing Club
🔄
78'
A. Fernandez ↔ M. Miljevic
Racing Club
🔄
79'
G. Carrillo ↔ A. Gaich
Estudiantes L.P.
🔄
79'
F. Farias ↔ B. Aguirre
Estudiantes L.P.
🔄
79'
M. Zaracho ↔ S. Solari
Racing Club
🟨
84'
Marco Di Cesare
Racing Club
89'
S. Sosa · Assist: G. Rojas
Racing Club
🟨
90+2'
Tomás Palacios
Estudiantes L.P.
🟨
90+5'
Gabriel Rojas
Racing Club
🔄
90+2'
L. Piovi ↔ J. Sosa
Estudiantes L.P.
🔄
90+2'
E. Mancuso ↔ L. Alario
Estudiantes L.P.
🔄
90+1'
M. Rojo ↔ F. Pardo
Racing Club
🔄
90+2'
T. Conechny ↔ I. Rodriguez
Racing Club

Estudiantes L.P. vs Racing Club Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 55.3%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 45.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 87.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
55.3%
-
BTTS BTTS No
45.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
87.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Estudiantes L.P. Win 55.3%
Draw 0%
Racing Club Win 44.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Estudiantes L.P.1.15
Racing Club0.84
Recent Form (Last 5)
Estudiantes L.P. Estudiantes L.P.
WWDLW
28 GF / 11 GA
Racing Club Racing Club
WLDWL
18 GF / 15 GA
Key Stats
1.33
Average Goals Scored
1.06
0.52
Average Goals Conceded
0.88
8
BTTS Yes
8
6
Over 2.5
6
5.05
Shots on Goal
3.38

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Estudiantes L.P. Estudiantes L.P. 21 matches
Racing Club Racing Club 17 matches
Estudiantes L.P. Statistic Racing Club
11 Wins 6
7 Draws 6
3 Losses 5
28 Goals For 18
11 Goals Against 15
1.33 Avg Goals Scored 1.06
0.52 Avg Goals Conceded 0.88
8 BTTS Yes 8
12 Over 1.5 12
6 Over 2.5 6
2 Over 3.5 1
10 Clean Sheets 7
6 Failed To Score 5
5.05 Shots On Goal 3.38
13.8 Total Shots 12.19
4.45 Corners 4.38
52.2% Ball Possession 57.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

In knockout conditions, this fixture pairs two sides with a fairly similar football identity, which should make the margins especially important. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Because this is a knockout setting, momentum shifts, risk management, and late-game discipline could all carry more weight than in a standard league fixture. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Estudiantes L.P. expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Racing Club in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Racing Club having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Racing Club. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Estudiantes L.P. Analysis

Estudiantes L.P. enter this tie with a season profile built on 136 points from 89 matches, placing them 7 in their league. With - wins, - draws, and - losses plus a goal ratio of 0:0, they bring good form over their recent run into this tie. Going forward they rely on A. Castro (3 goals), A. Gaich (3 goals), Fabricio Pérez (3 goals), with creative support from B. Aguirre (2 assists), Gastón Benedetti (2 assists), J. Burgos (2 assists), while defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 5 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, which supports a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In tactical terms they still look like a side built around a more cautious and defensive approach.

Racing Club Analysis

Racing Club enter this tie with a season profile built on 144 points from 89 matches, placing them 4 in their league. The return of - wins, - draws, and - defeats, together with a 0:0 goal balance, points toward poor form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Their attacking influence is driven by Adrian Martinez (4 goals), T. Conechny (3 goals), Duván Vergara (2 goals), with creative support from S. Solari (3 assists), G. Rojas (3 assists), T. Conechny (2 assists), and at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, the return of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football identity still points toward a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Estudiantes L.P. won 4 times, Racing Club won 4 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:13 from Estudiantes L.P.'s perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 1.93 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Estudiantes L.P. 4-2-3-1 / Racing Club 4-3-3
H2H summary: Estudiantes L.P. wins 4, draws 6, Racing Club wins 4

Standings

Apertura - Group A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 9 4 3 19:7 12 31
W L D L W
2 16 8 6 2 22:9 13 30
W D W D D
3 16 7 7 2 18:12 6 28
D W D D D
4 16 7 5 4 17:13 4 26
W L D D L
5 16 6 6 4 24:20 4 24
D W L D W
6 16 6 6 4 18:15 3 24
W W L D L
7 16 5 7 4 14:14 0 22
D W L D W
8 16 5 6 5 24:20 4 21
L W W W L
9 16 6 3 7 17:17 0 21
W L W D W
10 16 4 7 5 18:21 -3 19
W L W W D
11 16 5 4 7 14:22 -8 19
L D W W W
12 16 3 7 6 10:15 -5 16
L D L W D
13 16 4 4 8 11:21 -10 16
L L D L L
14 16 3 6 7 15:27 -12 15
D D D W W
15 16 1 8 7 5:12 -7 11
L D D D L
Knockout Phase