15.08.2026 19:45
Estadio Jorge Luis Hirschi
Referee: Yael Falcon Perez
Estudiantes L.P.
Match Timeline
Gimnasia L.P.
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
23'
Ignacio Miramón
Gimnasia L.P.
🟨
28'
Tiago Palacios
Estudiantes L.P.
🟨
31'
Gastón Benedetti
Estudiantes L.P.
VAR
34'
Alexis Steimbach
Gimnasia L.P.
🟥
35'
Alexis Steimbach
Gimnasia L.P.
43'
E. Mancuso · Assist: J. Burgos
Estudiantes L.P.
🟨
45+1'
Augusto Max
Gimnasia L.P.
🟨
50'
Germán Conti
Gimnasia L.P.
🟨
53'
Germán Conti
Gimnasia L.P.
🟥
53'
Germán Conti
Gimnasia L.P.
🔄
54'
I. Miramon ↔ J. Cortazzo
Gimnasia L.P.
60'
T. Palacios · Assist: A. Gaich
Estudiantes L.P.
🔄
61'
G. Benedetti ↔ E. Meza
Estudiantes L.P.
🔄
61'
B. Rodriguez ↔ J. Correa
Estudiantes L.P.
🔄
61'
A. Gaich ↔ G. Carrillo
Estudiantes L.P.
🔄
70'
T. Palacios ↔ J. Sosa
Estudiantes L.P.
70'
J. Burgos · Assist: J. Correa
Estudiantes L.P.
🔄
76'
L. Piovi ↔ E. Cetre
Estudiantes L.P.
🔄
77'
N. Fernandez ↔ M. Melluso
Gimnasia L.P.
🔄
77'
A. Auzmendi ↔ M. Panaro
Gimnasia L.P.
84'
A. Castro · Assist: E. Meza
Estudiantes L.P.
🟨
85'
Manuel Panaro
Gimnasia L.P.

Estudiantes L.P. vs Gimnasia L.P. Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 50.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
50.7%
-
BTTS Yes
62.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
76.9%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Estudiantes L.P. Win 50.7%
Draw 17.4%
Gimnasia L.P. Win 32%
Expected Goals (xG)
Estudiantes L.P.1.14
Gimnasia L.P.1.1
Recent Form (Last 5)
Estudiantes L.P. Estudiantes L.P.
WWDLW
36 GF / 19 GA
Gimnasia L.P. Gimnasia L.P.
WLDWL
37 GF / 27 GA
Key Stats
1.2
Average Goals Scored
1.42
0.63
Average Goals Conceded
1.04
9
BTTS Yes
12
8
Over 2.5
13
4.86
Shots on Goal
3.82

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Estudiantes L.P. Estudiantes L.P. 30 matches
Gimnasia L.P. Gimnasia L.P. 26 matches
Estudiantes L.P. Statistic Gimnasia L.P.
14 Wins 15
8 Draws 3
8 Losses 8
36 Goals For 37
19 Goals Against 27
1.2 Avg Goals Scored 1.42
0.63 Avg Goals Conceded 1.04
9 BTTS Yes 12
17 Over 1.5 19
8 Over 2.5 13
2 Over 3.5 5
13 Clean Sheets 9
11 Failed To Score 6
4.86 Shots On Goal 3.82
13.61 Total Shots 11.23
4.46 Corners 3.82
52.1% Ball Possession 45.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Estudiantes L.P.'s more proactive style and Gimnasia L.P.'s more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Gimnasia L.P.. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Estudiantes L.P. have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors.

Estudiantes L.P. Analysis

Estudiantes L.P. sit 1 with 31 points after 16 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 9 wins, 4 draws, and 3 defeats with a 19:7 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Adolfo Gaich (3 goals), Alexis Castro (2 goals), Mikel Amondarain (1 goals), with creative support from Tiago Palacios (3 assists), Mikel Amondarain (1 assists), Guido Carrillo (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 5 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

Gimnasia L.P. Analysis

From their first 16 matches, Gimnasia L.P. have collected 26 points and now occupy 6 place in the table. Their overall return of 8 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses with goals at 19:19 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Marcelo Torres (4 goals), Agustín Auzmendi (2 goals), Alexis Steimbach (1 goals), with creative support from Alexis Steimbach (3 assists), Agustín Auzmendi (2 assists), Pedro Silva (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Estudiantes L.P. won 6 times, Gimnasia L.P. won 1 times, while 8 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:10 from Estudiantes L.P.'s perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.07 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (82.6%)
Predicted formations: Estudiantes L.P. 4-2-3-1 / Gimnasia L.P. 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Estudiantes L.P. wins 6, draws 8, Gimnasia L.P. wins 1

Standings

Apertura - Group A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 9 4 3 19:7 12 31
W L D L W
2 16 8 6 2 22:9 13 30
W D W D D
3 16 7 7 2 18:12 6 28
D W D D D
4 16 7 5 4 17:13 4 26
W L D D L
5 16 6 6 4 24:20 4 24
D W L D W
6 16 6 6 4 18:15 3 24
W W L D L
7 16 5 7 4 14:14 0 22
D W L D W
8 16 5 6 5 24:20 4 21
L W W W L
9 16 6 3 7 17:17 0 21
W L W D W
10 16 4 7 5 18:21 -3 19
W L W W D
11 16 5 4 7 14:22 -8 19
L D W W W
12 16 3 7 6 10:15 -5 16
L D L W D
13 16 4 4 8 11:21 -10 16
L L D L L
14 16 3 6 7 15:27 -12 15
D D D W W
15 16 1 8 7 5:12 -7 11
L D D D L
Knockout Phase