PORTUGAL PRIMEIRA LIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Estádio José Gomes
Referee: F. Verissimo
Estrela
Match Timeline
Famalicao
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
61'
Gustavo García
Famalicao
🟨
65'
Renan Ribeiro
Estrela
🟨
73'
Rodrigo Pinho
Estrela
🔄
73'
Rodrigo Pinho ↔ L. Antonetti
Estrela
🔄
79'
A. Sola ↔ K. Jansson
Estrela
🔄
80'
Jovane ↔ T. Moustier
Estrela
🔄
83'
Gil Dias ↔ R. Beney
Famalicao
🔄
83'
S. Elisor ↔ U. Abubakar
Famalicao
🟨
84'
Jefferson Encada
Estrela
🔄
88'
S. Lekovic ↔ Bernardo Schappo
Estrela
🔄
88'
J. Encada ↔ M. Scholze
Estrela

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 30.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 39.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
67.1%
-
BTTS BTTS No
30.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
39.7%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Estrela Win 24.6%
Draw 8.3%
Famalicao Win 67.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Estrela1.04
Famalicao1.44
Recent Form (Last 5)
Estrela Estrela
WWDLW
36 GF / 54 GA
Famalicao Famalicao
WLDWL
41 GF / 29 GA
Key Stats
1.13
Average Goals Scored
1.28
1.69
Average Goals Conceded
0.91
15
BTTS Yes
12
17
Over 2.5
13
3.63
Shots on Goal
4.41

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Estrela Estrela 32 matches
Famalicao Famalicao 32 matches
Estrela Statistic Famalicao
6 Wins 14
10 Draws 10
16 Losses 8
36 Goals For 41
54 Goals Against 29
1.13 Avg Goals Scored 1.28
1.69 Avg Goals Conceded 0.91
15 BTTS Yes 12
24 Over 1.5 18
17 Over 2.5 13
12 Over 3.5 8
7 Clean Sheets 15
14 Failed To Score 8
3.63 Shots On Goal 4.41
11.22 Total Shots 12.38
3.41 Corners 5.31
47.8% Ball Possession 51.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Famalicao's more proactive style and Estrela's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Estrela have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Famalicao. Famalicao carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 5 with 52 points while Estrela sit 15 on 28, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

Estrela Analysis

Estrela approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 28 points from 32 matches. Their record of 6 wins, 10 draws, and 16 losses, together with goals at 36:54, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through Jovane Cabral (7 goals), Kikas (6 goals), S. Lopes Cabral (6 goals), with creative support from S. Lopes Cabral (5 assists), A. Marcus (5 assists), I. Stoica (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 4 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Famalicao Analysis

Famalicao come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 5 with 52 points from 32 matches. Their overall return of 14 wins, 10 draws, and 8 losses with goals at 41:29 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by J. De Haas (5 goals), Sorriso (5 goals), G. Sa (4 goals), with creative support from Gil Dias (7 assists), Sorriso (4 assists), Pedro Santos (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 6 wins, 6 draws, and 4 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Estrela won 2 times, Famalicao won 1 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:5 from Estrela's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 1.5 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91.7%)
Predicted formations: Estrela 4-2-3-1 / Famalicao 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Estrela wins 2, draws 3, Famalicao wins 1
Stats
Estrela Estrela
Famalicao Famalicao
Shots on Goal
1
Shots on Goal
4
Shots off Goal
1
Shots off Goal
8
Blocked Shots
2
Blocked Shots
3
3 Corner Kicks 10
16 Fouls 9
0 Offsides 1
39% Ball Possession 61%
4 Total Shots 15
1 Shots on Goal 4
1 Shots off Goal 8
2 Blocked Shots 3
3 Shots insidebox 9
1 Shots outsidebox 6
4 Goalkeeper Saves 1
305 Total passes 475
224 Passes accurate 407
0.25 expected_goals 2.00
🟨 3 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Estrela
Formation
Famalicao
R. Ribeiro
R. Ribeiro
J. Encada
J. Encada
Luan Patrick
Luan Patrick
S. Lekovic
S. Lekovic
B. Langa
B. Langa
A. Marcus
A. Marcus
A. Sola
A. Sola
P. Moreira
P. Moreira
I. Stoica
I. Stoica
Jovane
Jovane
Rodrigo Pinho
Rodrigo Pinho
L. Carevic
L. Carevic
Garcia
Garcia
L. Realpe
L. Realpe
J. De Haas
J. De Haas
Rafa Soares
Rafa Soares
G. Sa
G. Sa
T. Van de Looi
T. Van de Looi
M. De Amorim
M. De Amorim
Gil Dias
Gil Dias
S. Elisor
S. Elisor
Sorriso
Sorriso
Estrela 4-4-2
Starting XI
40
R. Ribeiro
🟨 65'
G
17
J. Encada
↓ 88' 🟨 84'
D
30
Luan Patrick
D
4
S. Lekovic
↓ 88'
D
24
B. Langa
D
99
A. Marcus
M
63
A. Sola
↓ 79'
M
19
P. Moreira
M
10
I. Stoica
M
11
Jovane
↓ 80'
F
9
Rodrigo Pinho
↓ 73' 🟨 73'
F
Substitutes
1
D. Pinto
G
20
S. van Hooijdonk
F
7
L. Antonetti
↑ 73'
F
28
T. Moustier
↑ 80'
M
14
Bernardo Schappo
↑ 88'
D
6
K. Jansson
↑ 79'
M
18
J. Meireles
F
21
M. Scholze
↑ 88'
D
39
G. Doue
M
Famalicao 4-3-3
Starting XI
25
L. Carevic
G
2
Garcia
🟨 61'
D
3
L. Realpe
D
16
J. De Haas
D
5
Rafa Soares
D
20
G. Sa
M
6
T. Van de Looi
M
14
M. De Amorim
M
23
Gil Dias
↓ 83'
F
12
S. Elisor
↓ 83'
F
7
Sorriso
F
Substitutes
1
I. Zlobin
G
28
Pedro Bondo
D
80
P. Santos
F
77
A. Joujou
F
8
M. Pena
M
91
R. Almeida
F
18
R. Beney
↑ 83'
F
9
U. Abubakar
↑ 83'
F
36
M. Mattara
D
Last matches: Estrela
16.05.26
Pri
Estrela
SC Braga
2
2
D
02.05.26
Pri
Estrela
Moreirense
2
3
L
26.04.26
Pri
Estrela
FC Porto
1
2
L
19.04.26
Pri
Estrela
Arouca
0
1
L
11.04.26
Pri
Estrela
Sporting CP
0
1
L
04.04.26
Pri
Estrela
Nacional
0
2
L
20.03.26
Pri
Estrela
Casa Pia
4
0
W
15.03.26
Pri
Estrela
Rio Ave
1
2
L
08.03.26
Pri
Estrela
GIL Vicente
2
2
D
28.02.26
Pri
Estrela
AVS
0
0
D
20.02.26
Pri
Estrela
Tondela
0
2
L
14.02.26
Pri
Estrela
Guimaraes
1
2
L
07.02.26
Pri
Estrela
Santa Clara
1
0
W
31.01.26
Pri
Estrela
Alverca
1
1
D
25.01.26
Pri
Estrela
Benfica
0
4
L
19.01.26
Pri
Estrela
Estoril
0
5
L
06.01.26
Fri
Estrela
VfL Wolfsburg
1
1
D
03.01.26
Pri
Estrela
SC Braga
3
3
D
27.12.25
Pri
Estrela
Famalicao
3
2
W
20.12.25
Pri
Estrela
Moreirense
0
0
D
Last matches: Famalicao
16.05.26
Pri
Famalicao
Alverca
1
0
W
02.05.26
Pri
Famalicao
Benfica
2
2
D
26.04.26
Pri
Famalicao
Estoril
1
0
W
19.04.26
Pri
Famalicao
SC Braga
2
2
D
10.04.26
Pri
Famalicao
Moreirense
1
1
D
04.04.26
Pri
Famalicao
FC Porto
2
2
D
21.03.26
Pri
Famalicao
Nacional
1
0
W
14.03.26
Pri
Famalicao
Guimaraes
2
1
W
06.03.26
Pri
Famalicao
Arouca
1
0
W
01.03.26
Pri
Famalicao
Rio Ave
0
0
D
23.02.26
Pri
Famalicao
Casa Pia
2
0
W
15.02.26
Pri
Famalicao
Sporting CP
0
1
L
09.02.26
Pri
Famalicao
AVS
3
1
W
01.02.26
Pri
Famalicao
GIL Vicente
0
5
L
25.01.26
Pri
Famalicao
Tondela
3
0
W
18.01.26
Pri
Famalicao
Santa Clara
1
0
W
04.01.26
Pri
Famalicao
Alverca
0
1
L
27.12.25
Pri
Famalicao
Estrela
2
3
L
22.12.25
Pri
Famalicao
Benfica
0
1
L
14.12.25
Pri
Famalicao
Estoril
4
0
W
H2H: Estrela vs Famalicao
11.05.26
H2H
Estrela
Famalicao
0
0
D
27.12.25
H2H
Famalicao
Estrela
2
3
W
25.01.25
H2H
Famalicao
Estrela
0
0
D
19.08.24
H2H
Estrela
Famalicao
0
3
L
16.03.24
H2H
Famalicao
Estrela
0
0
D
29.10.23
H2H
Estrela
Famalicao
1
0
W
Last matches: Estrela
26.04.26
Pri
Estrela
FC Porto
1
2
L
11.04.26
Pri
Estrela
Sporting CP
0
1
L
20.03.26
Pri
Estrela
Casa Pia
4
0
W
08.03.26
Pri
Estrela
GIL Vicente
2
2
D
20.02.26
Pri
Estrela
Tondela
0
2
L
07.02.26
Pri
Estrela
Santa Clara
1
0
W
19.01.26
Pri
Estrela
Estoril
0
5
L
06.01.26
Fri
Estrela
VfL Wolfsburg
1
1
D
03.01.26
Pri
Estrela
SC Braga
3
3
D
20.12.25
Pri
Estrela
Moreirense
0
0
D
07.12.25
Pri
Estrela
Arouca
3
1
W
09.11.25
Pri
Estrela
Nacional
1
1
D
25.10.25
Pri
Estrela
Rio Ave
1
2
L
27.09.25
Pri
Estrela
AVS
3
0
W
14.09.25
Pri
Estrela
Guimaraes
0
2
L
25.08.25
Pri
Estrela
Alverca
2
2
D
16.08.25
Pri
Estrela
Benfica
0
1
L
H2H at home: Estrela
11.05.26
H2H
Estrela
Famalicao
0
0
D
19.08.24
H2H
Estrela
Famalicao
0
3
L
29.10.23
H2H
Estrela
Famalicao
1
0
W
Last matches: Famalicao
26.04.26
Pri
Famalicao
Estoril
1
0
W
19.04.26
Pri
Famalicao
SC Braga
2
2
D
04.04.26
Pri
Famalicao
FC Porto
2
2
D
14.03.26
Pri
Famalicao
Guimaraes
2
1
W
01.03.26
Pri
Famalicao
Rio Ave
0
0
D
15.02.26
Pri
Famalicao
Sporting CP
0
1
L
01.02.26
Pri
Famalicao
GIL Vicente
0
5
L
18.01.26
Pri
Famalicao
Santa Clara
1
0
W
04.01.26
Pri
Famalicao
Alverca
0
1
L
22.12.25
Pri
Famalicao
Benfica
0
1
L
29.11.25
Pri
Famalicao
Moreirense
2
2
D
01.11.25
Pri
Famalicao
Nacional
1
0
W
05.10.25
Pri
Famalicao
Arouca
1
1
D
21.09.25
Pri
Famalicao
Casa Pia
1
1
D
30.08.25
Pri
Famalicao
AVS
1
0
W
16.08.25
Pri
Famalicao
Tondela
1
0
W
H2H away: Famalicao
11.05.26
H2H
Estrela
Famalicao
0
0
D
19.08.24
H2H
Estrela
Famalicao
0
3
W
29.10.23
H2H
Estrela
Famalicao
1
0
L

Standings

Primeira Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 28 4 2 66:18 48 88
W L W W W
2 34 25 7 2 89:24 65 82
W W W D D
3 34 23 11 0 74:25 49 80
W D D W W
4 34 16 11 7 64:36 28 59
D D D L W
5 34 15 11 8 42:29 13 56
W D D W D
6 34 13 11 10 47:38 9 50
L L D W L
7 34 12 7 15 37:49 -12 43
D L W L W
8 34 12 6 16 47:64 -17 42
W W D L W
9 34 12 6 16 39:51 -12 42
L L L W W
10 34 10 9 15 54:57 -3 39
L D D L L
11 34 10 9 15 35:52 -17 39
L D L W L
12 34 8 12 14 35:57 -22 36
D L D L D
13 34 9 9 16 32:41 -9 36
L W D W D
14 34 9 7 18 37:45 -8 34
W L L W W
15 34 6 12 16 38:56 -18 30
D D L L L
16 34 6 12 16 31:57 -26 30
D W L L L
17 34 6 10 18 27:55 -28 28
L W W D L
18 34 3 12 19 27:67 -40 21
D W W D D
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2