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25.10.2026 15:30
Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota
Referee: C. Macedo
Estoril
Match Timeline
Moreirense
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
12'
M. Mendonca
Moreirense
⚽
15'
T. Andrade
Moreirense
🟨
23'
Nail Omerović
Estoril
🟨
27'
Antef Tsoungui
Estoril
⚽
28'
N. John
Moreirense
🔄
46'
R. Sanchez ↔ P. Carvalho
Estoril
🔄
46'
N. Omerovic ↔ A. Lacximicant
Estoril
🔄
58'
A. Camblan ↔ F. Medrano
Estoril
🔄
58'
J. Carvalho ↔ Peixinho
Estoril
🔄
59'
M. Mendonca ↔ Rodri
Moreirense
🔄
69'
A. Tsoungui ↔ Xeka
Estoril
🔄
69'
K. Bondoso ↔ M. Stjepanovic
Moreirense
🔄
69'
N. John ↔ Landerson
Moreirense
🔄
80'
T. Andrade ↔ A. Martinez
Moreirense
🔄
81'
L. Vonic ↔ Yan Maranhao
Moreirense
🟨
90+2'
André Lacximicant
Estoril
🟨
90'
Gilberto Batista
Moreirense
⚽
90'
Peixinho
Estoril

Estoril vs Moreirense Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 74.8%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 70.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
74.8%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
71.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
70.3%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
68.1%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Estoril Win 25.2%
Draw 26.4%
Moreirense Win 48.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Estoril1.11
Moreirense1.24
Recent Form (Last 5)
Estoril Estoril
L L L D L
3 GF / 7 GA
Moreirense Moreirense
L D W L L
5 GF / 9 GA
Key Stats
0.67
Average Goals Scored
1.23
1.25
Average Goals Conceded
1.77
5
BTTS Yes
8
4
Over 2.5
9
5
Shots on Goal
2.75

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Estoril Estoril 12 matches
Moreirense Moreirense 13 matches
Estoril Statistic Moreirense
1 Wins 3
4 Draws 4
7 Losses 6
8 Goals For 16
15 Goals Against 23
0.67 Avg Goals Scored 1.23
1.25 Avg Goals Conceded 1.77
5 BTTS Yes 8
9 Over 1.5 11
4 Over 2.5 9
0 Over 3.5 6
3 Clean Sheets 2
6 Failed To Score 3
5 Shots On Goal 2.75
13 Total Shots 7.88
4.88 Corners 2.38
48% Ball Possession 36%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Moreirense. Moreirense carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 12 with 8 points while Estoril sit 18 on 2, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Estoril Analysis

Estoril approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 18 with 2 points from 8 matches. Their record of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses, together with goals at 4:12, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through Y. Begraoui (2 goals), Ricard Sánchez (1 goals), R. Guitane (1 goals), with creative support from João Carvalho (1 assists), Fernando Medrano (1 assists), J. Holsgrove (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 0 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Moreirense Analysis

With 8 points from 8 games and a place of 12, Moreirense still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 4 defeats with a 8:15 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on A. Duville-Parsemain (1 goals), Tiago Andrade (1 goals), João Veloso (1 goals), with creative support from A. Duville-Parsemain (1 assists), Tiago Andrade (1 assists), João Veloso (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Estoril won 5 times, Moreirense won 5 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:20 from Estoril's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.73 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (74.8%)
Predicted formations: Estoril 4-2-3-1 / Moreirense 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Estoril wins 5, draws 5, Moreirense wins 5

Standings

Primeira Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 10 0 0 25:4 21 30
W W W W W
2 10 8 1 1 27:8 19 25
W W W L W
3 10 6 3 1 23:11 12 21
W L W D D
4 10 6 3 1 15:6 9 21
W L W D W
5 10 6 2 2 13:7 6 20
W W W D L
6 10 6 2 2 15:12 3 20
W W W W W
7 10 4 3 3 8:7 1 15
D L W W D
8 10 4 2 4 12:11 1 14
W L L L D
9 10 4 2 4 13:17 -4 14
W W L D W
10 10 3 2 5 13:14 -1 11
L L W W W
11 10 2 4 4 14:14 0 10
L W L W D
12 10 2 4 4 15:19 -4 10
L L L L D
13 10 2 3 5 10:10 0 9
D W L D L
14 10 2 2 6 9:21 -12 8
L L L D L
15 10 2 1 7 10:19 -9 7
L W L L L
16 10 2 1 7 9:23 -14 7
L L W L D
17 10 2 1 7 5:19 -14 7
L W L W L
18 10 0 2 8 5:19 -14 2
L L L L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2