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DENMARK › 1. DIVISION
10.10.2026 11:30
Blue Water Arena
Referee: F. Iriskic
Esbjerg
Match Timeline
Aalborg
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
7'
J. Foss
Aalborg
⚽
9'
J. Ampofo · Assist: N. Strunck
Esbjerg
⚽
26'
M. Kubel · Assist: N. A. Arnorsson
Aalborg
⚽
39'
M. Brajanac · Assist: J. Ampofo
Esbjerg
🔄
62'
M. Hansen ↔ O. Boesen
Esbjerg
🔄
62'
M. Maden ↔ A. Ahmad
Esbjerg
🔄
70'
M. Tielemans ↔ M. Kaasa
Aalborg
🔄
70'
M. Kubel ↔ W. Thomsen
Aalborg
🔄
76'
G. Madsen ↔ L. Vigen
Esbjerg
🔄
79'
T. Persyn ↔ F. Borsting
Aalborg
🔄
85'
V. Moller ↔ A. Hapnes
Aalborg
🔄
85'
K. Normann ↔ K. John
Aalborg
🔄
88'
J. Ampofo ↔ N. Strandby
Esbjerg
⚽
89'
M. Kaasa · Assist: W. Thomsen
Aalborg
🟨
90+4'
O. Boesen
Esbjerg
⚽
90'
L. Vigen · Assist: P. Tjornelund
Esbjerg

Esbjerg vs Aalborg Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 79.2%
Odds 2.27
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds 1.44
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 1.57
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
79.2%
2.27 ▥
BTTS Yes
54.1%
1.44 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
1.57 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
4.12 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
6.00 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
17.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Esbjerg Win 15%
Draw 5.8%
Aalborg Win 79.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Esbjerg1.4
Aalborg1.67
Recent Form (Last 5)
Esbjerg Esbjerg
WWDLW
25 GF / 36 GA
Aalborg Aalborg
WLDWL
29 GF / 29 GA
Key Stats
1.32
Average Goals Scored
1.53
1.89
Average Goals Conceded
1.53
12
BTTS Yes
12
11
Over 2.5
13
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Esbjerg Esbjerg 19 matches
Aalborg Aalborg 19 matches
Esbjerg Statistic Aalborg
3 Wins 8
5 Draws 6
11 Losses 5
25 Goals For 29
36 Goals Against 29
1.32 Avg Goals Scored 1.53
1.89 Avg Goals Conceded 1.53
12 BTTS Yes 12
16 Over 1.5 15
11 Over 2.5 13
6 Over 3.5 8
1 Clean Sheets 5
6 Failed To Score 3
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Aalborg. Aalborg carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 5 with 13 points while Esbjerg sit 12 on 5, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Esbjerg have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Aalborg having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Esbjerg Analysis

Esbjerg approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 12 with 5 points from 9 matches. Their record of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses, together with goals at 10:19, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 0 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Aalborg Analysis

Aalborg come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 5 with 13 points from 9 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses, while the 11:11 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Esbjerg won 5 times, Aalborg won 6 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:20 from Esbjerg's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.2%)
H2H summary: Esbjerg wins 5, draws 4, Aalborg wins 6

Standings

1. Division
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 3 0 20:10 10 24
W W D W W
2 10 5 4 1 23:15 8 19
L D D W D
3 10 4 5 1 14:6 8 17
W D D W L
4 11 4 3 4 16:12 4 15
W W W L L
5 10 3 5 2 14:14 0 14
D D D W D
6 11 3 5 3 10:11 -1 14
D L L D W
7 10 4 2 4 13:17 -4 14
D L D L L
8 11 2 6 3 13:14 -1 12
W D D D L
9 11 2 4 5 15:20 -5 10
L W W D D
10 11 2 4 5 11:18 -7 10
L L D D L
11 10 2 3 5 13:16 -3 9
L D W D W
12 11 1 4 6 13:22 -9 7
D D L D L
Promotion Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs