KENYA SUPER LEAGUE
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 87.2%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 56%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 72.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
87.2%
-
BTTS No
56%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
72.8%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Equity Bank Win 87.2%
Draw 8.2%
Mwatate United Win 4.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Equity Bank1.53
Mwatate United0.77
Recent Form (Last 5)
Equity Bank Equity Bank
WWDLW
54 GF / 28 GA
Mwatate United Mwatate United
WLDWL
27 GF / 57 GA
Key Stats
1.46
Average Goals Scored
0.77
0.76
Average Goals Conceded
1.63
16
BTTS Yes
15
15
Over 2.5
16
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Equity Bank Equity Bank 37 matches
Mwatate United Mwatate United 35 matches
Equity Bank Statistic Mwatate United
20 Wins 6
11 Draws 7
6 Losses 22
54 Goals For 27
28 Goals Against 57
1.46 Avg Goals Scored 0.77
0.76 Avg Goals Conceded 1.63
16 BTTS Yes 15
24 Over 1.5 24
15 Over 2.5 16
9 Over 3.5 10
18 Clean Sheets 4
8 Failed To Score 18
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Equity Bank's more proactive style and Mwatate United's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Mwatate United. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Mwatate United having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Equity Bank arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 4 with 71 points compared to Mwatate United in 20 on 25, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Equity Bank Analysis

Placed 4 with 71 points from 37 outings, Equity Bank continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 20 wins, 11 draws, and 6 losses, while the 54:28 goal ratio supports the view of poor form . Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 13 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Mwatate United Analysis

Mwatate United approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 20 with 25 points from 37 matches. Their record of 6 wins, 7 draws, and 24 losses, together with goals at 27:62, reflects poor form . Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 3 draws, and 14 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Equity Bank won 1 times, Mwatate United won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:2 from Equity Bank's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (95.4%)
H2H summary: Equity Bank wins 1, draws 1, Mwatate United wins 0
Last matches: Equity Bank
07.06.26
Sup
Equity Bank
Migori Youth
1
2
L
01.06.26
Sup
Equity Bank
Soy United
1
0
W
27.05.26
Sup
Equity Bank
Fortune Sacco
4
0
W
23.05.26
Sup
Equity Bank
3K
0
0
D
17.05.26
Sup
Equity Bank
Kisumu All Stars
0
0
D
09.05.26
Sup
Equity Bank
Darajani Gogo
4
0
W
03.05.26
Sup
Equity Bank
Nairobi City Stars
1
0
W
26.04.26
Sup
Equity Bank
Vihiga United FC
4
0
W
18.04.26
Sup
Equity Bank
MOFA
0
0
D
12.04.26
Sup
Equity Bank
Gucha Stars
1
1
D
03.04.26
Sup
Equity Bank
Talanta
2
0
W
29.03.26
Sup
Equity Bank
Luanda Villa
1
0
W
25.03.26
Sup
Equity Bank
MCF
3
0
W
22.03.26
Sup
Equity Bank
Kabati Youth FC
1
0
W
14.03.26
Sup
Equity Bank
Nzoia Sugar
1
0
W
07.03.26
Sup
Equity Bank
Mombasa Elite
1
3
L
22.02.26
Sup
Equity Bank
Kibera Black Stars
2
1
W
14.02.26
Sup
Equity Bank
Naivas
1
1
D
31.01.26
Sup
Equity Bank
Nzoia Sugar
1
0
W
24.01.26
Sup
Equity Bank
Talanta
0
0
D
Last matches: Mwatate United
28.05.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Naivas
0
2
L
24.05.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Mombasa Elite
0
1
L
17.05.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Luanda Villa
0
2
L
10.05.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Kibera Black Stars
1
1
D
02.05.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Fortune Sacco
0
1
L
25.04.26
Sup
Mwatate United
MOFA
2
3
L
18.04.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Vihiga United FC
3
1
W
11.04.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Talanta
1
2
L
04.04.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Soy United
0
2
L
28.03.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Migori Youth
1
0
W
21.03.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Nzoia Sugar
1
3
L
14.03.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Kisumu All Stars
0
1
L
07.03.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Nairobi City Stars
0
1
L
28.02.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Gucha Stars
3
1
W
22.02.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Kabati Youth FC
0
2
L
15.02.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Darajani Gogo
2
2
D
01.02.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Kisumu All Stars
0
0
D
25.01.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Soy United
0
1
L
18.01.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Talanta
2
1
W
11.01.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Vihiga United FC
2
1
W
H2H: Equity Bank vs Mwatate United
13.06.26
H2H
Equity Bank
Mwatate United
2
0
W
28.10.25
H2H
Mwatate United
Equity Bank
2
2
D
Last matches: Equity Bank
01.06.26
Sup
Equity Bank
Soy United
1
0
W
17.05.26
Sup
Equity Bank
Kisumu All Stars
0
0
D
03.05.26
Sup
Equity Bank
Nairobi City Stars
1
0
W
18.04.26
Sup
Equity Bank
MOFA
0
0
D
03.04.26
Sup
Equity Bank
Talanta
2
0
W
29.03.26
Sup
Equity Bank
Luanda Villa
1
0
W
07.03.26
Sup
Equity Bank
Mombasa Elite
1
3
L
22.02.26
Sup
Equity Bank
Kibera Black Stars
2
1
W
31.01.26
Sup
Equity Bank
Nzoia Sugar
1
0
W
17.01.26
Sup
Equity Bank
Gucha Stars
3
2
W
21.12.25
Sup
Equity Bank
Vihiga United FC
2
1
W
17.12.25
Sup
Equity Bank
Darajani Gogo
2
0
W
07.12.25
Sup
Equity Bank
3K
2
1
W
29.11.25
Sup
Equity Bank
MCF
3
1
W
15.11.25
Sup
Equity Bank
Naivas
0
0
D
02.11.25
Sup
Equity Bank
Migori Youth
3
2
W
25.10.25
Sup
Equity Bank
Fortune Sacco
0
1
L
04.10.25
Sup
Equity Bank
Kabati Youth FC
3
1
W
H2H at home: Equity Bank
13.06.26
H2H
Equity Bank
Mwatate United
2
0
W
Last matches: Mwatate United
17.05.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Luanda Villa
0
2
L
02.05.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Fortune Sacco
0
1
L
25.04.26
Sup
Mwatate United
MOFA
2
3
L
11.04.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Talanta
1
2
L
21.03.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Nzoia Sugar
1
3
L
07.03.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Nairobi City Stars
0
1
L
22.02.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Kabati Youth FC
0
2
L
01.02.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Kisumu All Stars
0
0
D
25.01.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Soy United
0
1
L
11.01.26
Sup
Mwatate United
Vihiga United FC
2
1
W
17.12.25
Sup
Mwatate United
Mombasa Elite
0
3
L
07.12.25
Sup
Mwatate United
Kibera Black Stars
1
2
L
30.11.25
Sup
Mwatate United
Gucha Stars
0
2
L
16.11.25
Sup
Mwatate United
Darajani Gogo
0
0
D
02.11.25
Sup
Mwatate United
3K
1
1
D
25.10.25
Sup
Mwatate United
Naivas
1
3
L
28.09.25
Sup
Mwatate United
Migori Youth
0
1
L
H2H away: Mwatate United
13.06.26
H2H
Equity Bank
Mwatate United
2
0
L

Standings

Super League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 25 6 7 57:29 28 81
D W W W W
2 38 23 8 7 62:26 36 77
D W W D D
3 38 24 4 10 51:32 19 76
D W L D W
4 38 21 11 6 56:28 28 74
W L W W D
5 38 16 16 6 51:30 21 64
D D D D L
6 38 18 9 11 61:41 20 63
W W L L L
7 38 17 10 11 47:30 17 61
D L W W W
8 38 16 9 13 53:41 12 57
L W L W W
9 38 15 8 15 32:33 -1 53
L L D D L
10 38 14 10 14 31:27 4 52
W D L D W
11 38 12 14 12 37:36 1 50
W L W L L
12 38 12 8 18 35:41 -6 44
W L W L W
13 38 12 7 19 30:51 -21 43
L D W L L
14 38 10 9 19 32:52 -20 39
D W W W L
15 38 10 9 19 23:47 -24 39
W L L D W
16 38 9 12 17 32:44 -12 39
L L L D D
17 38 10 8 20 27:48 -21 38
W W L D W
18 38 9 10 19 24:42 -18 34
L W W L D
19 38 9 9 20 29:55 -26 30
L D L W L
20 38 6 7 25 27:64 -37 25
L L L L L
Promotion - Premier League
Relegation