KENYA SUPER LEAGUE
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 56.3%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 75%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 90.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
56.3%
-
BTTS BTTS No
75%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
90.2%
-
Probability Distribution
Equity Bank Win 56.3%
Draw 11.7%
MOFA Win 32%
Expected Goals (xG)
Equity Bank1.11
MOFA1.23
Recent Form (Last 5)
Equity Bank Equity Bank
WWDLW
39 GF / 26 GA
MOFA MOFA
WLDWL
40 GF / 19 GA
Key Stats
1.39
Average Goals Scored
1.43
0.93
Average Goals Conceded
0.68
15
BTTS Yes
12
11
Over 2.5
8
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Equity Bank Equity Bank 28 matches
MOFA MOFA 28 matches
Equity Bank Statistic MOFA
15 Wins 14
8 Draws 10
5 Losses 4
39 Goals For 40
26 Goals Against 19
1.39 Avg Goals Scored 1.43
0.93 Avg Goals Conceded 0.68
15 BTTS Yes 12
20 Over 1.5 16
11 Over 2.5 8
6 Over 3.5 6
10 Clean Sheets 12
5 Failed To Score 7
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward MOFA having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Equity Bank come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors MOFA.

Equity Bank Analysis

Equity Bank come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 3 place with 53 points after 28 matches. The return of 15 wins, 8 draws, and 5 defeats, together with goals at 39:26, reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking edge comes through their main attacking players, while their defending has remained fairly stable. At home, the split of 11 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

MOFA Analysis

MOFA approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 4 on 52 points after 28 outings. The return of 14 wins, 10 draws, and 4 defeats, together with goals at 37:19, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through their main attacking players, while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, the split of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Equity Bank won 0 times, MOFA won 0 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:1 from Equity Bank's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 1 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.3%)
H2H summary: Equity Bank wins 0, draws 2, MOFA wins 0
Last matches: Equity Bank
13.06.26
Sup
Equity Bank
Mwatate United
2
0
W
07.06.26
Sup
Equity Bank
Migori Youth
1
2
L
01.06.26
Sup
Equity Bank
Soy United
1
0
W
27.05.26
Sup
Equity Bank
Fortune Sacco
4
0
W
23.05.26
Sup
Equity Bank
3K
0
0
D
17.05.26
Sup
Equity Bank
Kisumu All Stars
0
0
D
09.05.26
Sup
Equity Bank
Darajani Gogo
4
0
W
03.05.26
Sup
Equity Bank
Nairobi City Stars
1
0
W
26.04.26
Sup
Equity Bank
Vihiga United FC
4
0
W
12.04.26
Sup
Equity Bank
Gucha Stars
1
1
D
03.04.26
Sup
Equity Bank
Talanta
2
0
W
29.03.26
Sup
Equity Bank
Luanda Villa
1
0
W
25.03.26
Sup
Equity Bank
MCF
3
0
W
22.03.26
Sup
Equity Bank
Kabati Youth FC
1
0
W
14.03.26
Sup
Equity Bank
Nzoia Sugar
1
0
W
07.03.26
Sup
Equity Bank
Mombasa Elite
1
3
L
22.02.26
Sup
Equity Bank
Kibera Black Stars
2
1
W
14.02.26
Sup
Equity Bank
Naivas
1
1
D
31.01.26
Sup
Equity Bank
Nzoia Sugar
1
0
W
24.01.26
Sup
Equity Bank
Talanta
0
0
D
Last matches: MOFA
13.06.26
Sup
MOFA
Kabati Youth FC
1
1
D
07.06.26
Sup
MOFA
Soy United
0
0
D
01.06.26
Sup
MOFA
Kibera Black Stars
1
1
D
28.05.26
Sup
MOFA
Darajani Gogo
1
1
D
24.05.26
Sup
MOFA
Kisumu All Stars
0
1
L
16.05.26
Sup
MOFA
Gucha Stars
2
1
W
10.05.26
Sup
MOFA
Migori Youth
0
1
L
02.05.26
Sup
MOFA
Talanta
3
3
D
25.04.26
Sup
MOFA
Mwatate United
3
2
W
14.04.26
Sup
MOFA
MCF
3
0
W
10.04.26
Sup
MOFA
Luanda Villa
1
1
D
04.04.26
Sup
MOFA
Nzoia Sugar
2
0
W
28.03.26
Sup
MOFA
Nairobi City Stars
1
1
D
21.03.26
Sup
MOFA
Vihiga United FC
3
2
W
15.03.26
Sup
MOFA
3K
0
1
L
07.03.26
Sup
MOFA
Naivas
1
0
W
27.02.26
Sup
MOFA
Mombasa Elite
0
1
L
15.02.26
Sup
MOFA
Fortune Sacco
1
0
W
31.01.26
Sup
MOFA
3K
1
0
W
25.01.26
Sup
MOFA
Nzoia Sugar
1
1
D
H2H: Equity Bank vs MOFA
18.04.26
H2H
Equity Bank
MOFA
0
0
D
11.01.26
H2H
MOFA
Equity Bank
1
1
D
Last matches: Equity Bank
13.06.26
Sup
Equity Bank
Mwatate United
2
0
W
01.06.26
Sup
Equity Bank
Soy United
1
0
W
17.05.26
Sup
Equity Bank
Kisumu All Stars
0
0
D
03.05.26
Sup
Equity Bank
Nairobi City Stars
1
0
W
03.04.26
Sup
Equity Bank
Talanta
2
0
W
29.03.26
Sup
Equity Bank
Luanda Villa
1
0
W
07.03.26
Sup
Equity Bank
Mombasa Elite
1
3
L
22.02.26
Sup
Equity Bank
Kibera Black Stars
2
1
W
31.01.26
Sup
Equity Bank
Nzoia Sugar
1
0
W
17.01.26
Sup
Equity Bank
Gucha Stars
3
2
W
21.12.25
Sup
Equity Bank
Vihiga United FC
2
1
W
17.12.25
Sup
Equity Bank
Darajani Gogo
2
0
W
07.12.25
Sup
Equity Bank
3K
2
1
W
29.11.25
Sup
Equity Bank
MCF
3
1
W
15.11.25
Sup
Equity Bank
Naivas
0
0
D
02.11.25
Sup
Equity Bank
Migori Youth
3
2
W
25.10.25
Sup
Equity Bank
Fortune Sacco
0
1
L
04.10.25
Sup
Equity Bank
Kabati Youth FC
3
1
W
H2H at home: Equity Bank
18.04.26
H2H
Equity Bank
MOFA
0
0
D
Last matches: MOFA
07.06.26
Sup
MOFA
Soy United
0
0
D
28.05.26
Sup
MOFA
Darajani Gogo
1
1
D
24.05.26
Sup
MOFA
Kisumu All Stars
0
1
L
10.05.26
Sup
MOFA
Migori Youth
0
1
L
04.04.26
Sup
MOFA
Nzoia Sugar
2
0
W
28.03.26
Sup
MOFA
Nairobi City Stars
1
1
D
15.03.26
Sup
MOFA
3K
0
1
L
27.02.26
Sup
MOFA
Mombasa Elite
0
1
L
15.02.26
Sup
MOFA
Fortune Sacco
1
0
W
18.01.26
Sup
MOFA
Luanda Villa
4
2
W
21.12.25
Sup
MOFA
Mwatate United
4
0
W
13.12.25
Sup
MOFA
Talanta
0
0
D
03.12.25
Sup
MOFA
Gucha Stars
3
2
W
22.11.25
Sup
MOFA
Naivas
0
0
D
08.11.25
Sup
MOFA
MCF
0
1
L
30.10.25
Sup
MOFA
Kabati Youth FC
1
1
D
12.10.25
Sup
MOFA
Kibera Black Stars
0
1
L
05.10.25
Sup
MOFA
Vihiga United FC
1
0
W
H2H away: MOFA
18.04.26
H2H
Equity Bank
MOFA
0
0
D

Standings

Super League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 25 6 7 57:29 28 81
D W W W W
2 38 23 8 7 62:26 36 77
D W W D D
3 38 24 4 10 51:32 19 76
D W L D W
4 38 21 11 6 56:28 28 74
W L W W D
5
MOFA Away
38 16 16 6 51:30 21 64
D D D D L
6 38 18 9 11 61:41 20 63
W W L L L
7 38 17 10 11 47:30 17 61
D L W W W
8 38 16 9 13 53:41 12 57
L W L W W
9 38 15 8 15 32:33 -1 53
L L D D L
10 38 14 10 14 31:27 4 52
W D L D W
11 38 12 14 12 37:36 1 50
W L W L L
12 38 12 8 18 35:41 -6 44
W L W L W
13 38 12 7 19 30:51 -21 43
L D W L L
14 38 10 9 19 32:52 -20 39
D W W W L
15 38 10 9 19 23:47 -24 39
W L L D W
16 38 9 12 17 32:44 -12 39
L L L D D
17 38 10 8 20 27:48 -21 38
W W L D W
18 38 9 10 19 24:42 -18 34
L W W L D
19 38 9 9 20 29:55 -26 30
L D L W L
20 38 6 7 25 27:64 -37 25
L L L L L
Promotion - Premier League
Relegation