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10.10.2026 13:00
Carlo Castellani
Referee: Livio Marinelli, Italy
Empoli
Match Timeline
Palermo
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
46'
Simone Romagnoli ↔ Karim Zedadka
Empoli
🔄
46'
Filippo Bandinelli ↔ Lapo Deli
Empoli
VAR
48'
Edoardo Saporiti
Empoli
⚽
50'
Edoardo Saporiti
Empoli
🟨
57'
Jacopo Seghetti
Empoli
⚽
57'
Joel Pohjanpalo · Assist: Mattia Bani
Palermo
⚽
65'
Antonio Palumbo · Assist: Dennis Johnsen
Palermo
⚽
69'
Dennis Johnsen · Assist: Antonio Palumbo
Palermo
🔄
71'
Niccolò Corrado ↔ Stiven Shpendi
Empoli
🔄
71'
Edoardo Biondini ↔ Duccio Degli Innocenti
Empoli
🟨
75'
Filippo Ranocchia
Palermo
⚽
79'
Bogdan Popov
Empoli
🔄
79'
Joel Pohjanpalo ↔ Alessandro Gabrielloni
Palermo
🔄
79'
Antonio Palumbo ↔ Hernani
Palermo
🔄
79'
Jacopo Segre ↔ Luca Mazzitelli
Palermo
🔄
80'
Filippo Ranocchia ↔ Nahuel Estévez
Palermo
🔄
85'
Dennis Johnsen ↔ Patryk Peda
Palermo
⚽
88'
Tommaso Cassandro · Assist: Alessandro Gabrielloni
Palermo
🔄
89'
Joseph Ceesay ↔ Matteo Egan
Empoli

Empoli vs Palermo Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 95.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
95.6%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
75.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
81.4%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Empoli Win 44.2%
Draw 4.4%
Palermo Win 51.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Empoli0.93
Palermo1.74
Recent Form (Last 5)
Empoli Empoli
L L W L W
4 GF / 6 GA
Palermo Palermo
W D W W W
14 GF / 7 GA
Key Stats
0.89
Average Goals Scored
2.23
1
Average Goals Conceded
1
5
BTTS Yes
7
2
Over 2.5
6
3
Shots on Goal
5.86

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Empoli Empoli 9 matches
Palermo Palermo 13 matches
Empoli Statistic Palermo
3 Wins 8
3 Draws 3
3 Losses 2
8 Goals For 29
9 Goals Against 13
0.89 Avg Goals Scored 2.23
1 Avg Goals Conceded 1
5 BTTS Yes 7
5 Over 1.5 11
2 Over 2.5 6
1 Over 3.5 5
3 Clean Sheets 4
1 Failed To Score 2
3 Shots On Goal 5.86
9.83 Total Shots 14.71
4 Corners 3.86
43.8% Ball Possession 49.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Palermo's more proactive style and Empoli's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Palermo. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Empoli expected to line up in 3-5-2 and Palermo in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Palermo having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Palermo look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. Palermo carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 13 points while Empoli sit 13 on 6, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Empoli Analysis

Empoli sit 13 with 6 points after 5 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 3 defeats with a 4:6 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on E. Saporiti (1 goals), Gerard Yepes (1 goals), S. Shpendi (1 goals), with creative support from C. Cauz (1 assists), L. Magnino (1 assists), M. Egan (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, the split record of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Palermo Analysis

Palermo approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 13 points after 5 outings. With 4 wins, 1 draws, and 0 defeats plus a goal balance of 10:5, they continue to show very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking quality is driven by D. Johnsen (3 goals), D. Vavassori (2 goals), J. Pohjanpalo (1 goals), with creative support from D. Johnsen (4 assists), J. Pohjanpalo (2 assists), T. Augello (1 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the split of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses supports the view of a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, Empoli won 4 times, Palermo won 3 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:11 from Empoli's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.7 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.6%)
Predicted formations: Empoli 3-5-2 / Palermo 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Empoli wins 4, draws 3, Palermo wins 3

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 8 7 1 0 18:8 10 22
W W W W D
2 9 6 1 2 17:9 8 19
W W L W W
3 9 5 3 1 16:6 10 18
W W D D W
4 9 5 2 2 14:10 4 17
L W L W D
5 9 4 3 2 14:8 6 15
D W D W W
6 8 4 2 2 15:10 5 14
D W W D L
7 9 4 1 4 9:10 -1 13
W W L L L
8 9 3 4 2 10:9 1 13
L D L D W
9 9 3 3 3 13:10 3 12
D L D W L
10 9 2 5 2 10:13 -3 11
W L D L D
11 9 2 4 3 11:10 1 10
D L W D D
12 8 3 1 4 8:17 -9 10
L W D L W
13 8 2 3 3 15:13 2 9
D D L W L
14 9 2 3 4 8:11 -3 9
W L L D D
15 9 2 3 4 12:17 -5 9
L W D L L
16 8 3 3 2 9:8 1 8
W W D D D
17 9 2 1 6 8:15 -7 7
L L D L L
18 8 2 1 5 7:9 -2 7
L W W L L
19 9 1 2 6 8:18 -10 5
L D L L W
20 9 1 2 6 10:21 -11 5
D L D L L
Promotion - Serie A
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Serie B (Play Out)
Relegation