ITALY SERIE B
--.--.---- --:--
Stadio Carlo Castellani
Referee: F. La Penna
Empoli
Match Timeline
Avellino
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
46'
Nicolas Haas
Empoli
🔄
46'
T. Biasci ↔ R. Russo
Avellino
🔄
54'
M. Nasti ↔ B. Popov
Empoli
🟨
57'
Dimitrios Sounas
Avellino
58'
M. Lovato · Assist: G. Yepes
Empoli
🔄
65'
T. Cancellotti ↔ F. Missori
Avellino
🔄
65'
D. Sounas ↔ R. Insigne
Avellino
🔄
69'
J. Ceesay ↔ S. Elia
Empoli
🔄
69'
N. Haas ↔ D. Degli Innocenti
Empoli
🔄
73'
M. Besaggio ↔ L. Pandolfi
Avellino
🟨
77'
Salvatore Elia
Empoli
🟨
83'
Gerard Yepes
Empoli
🔄
83'
C. Patierno ↔ A. Le Borgne
Avellino
🔄
84'
G. Yepes ↔ A. Ghion
Empoli
🔄
84'
S. Shpendi ↔ F. Bianchi
Empoli
🟥
90+7'
Alessandro Fontanarosa
Avellino

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 83.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 26.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 43%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
83.8%
-
BTTS BTTS No
26.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
43%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
88.8%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Empoli Win 40.9%
Draw 16.2%
Avellino Win 42.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Empoli1.32
Avellino1.27
Recent Form (Last 5)
Empoli Empoli
WWDLW
46 GF / 56 GA
Avellino Avellino
WLDWL
42 GF / 55 GA
Key Stats
1.21
Average Goals Scored
1.14
1.47
Average Goals Conceded
1.49
24
BTTS Yes
19
18
Over 2.5
17
3.92
Shots on Goal
3.27

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Empoli Empoli 38 matches
Avellino Avellino 37 matches
Empoli Statistic Avellino
8 Wins 12
14 Draws 10
16 Losses 15
46 Goals For 42
56 Goals Against 55
1.21 Avg Goals Scored 1.14
1.47 Avg Goals Conceded 1.49
24 BTTS Yes 19
30 Over 1.5 29
18 Over 2.5 17
12 Over 3.5 9
6 Clean Sheets 7
9 Failed To Score 13
3.92 Shots On Goal 3.27
12.16 Total Shots 9.59
4.79 Corners 4.16
48.6% Ball Possession 48.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Empoli have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Avellino carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 8 with 46 points while Empoli sit 16 on 37, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Avellino. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Empoli expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Avellino in 4-3-1-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Avellino having the stronger overall control.

Empoli Analysis

With 37 points from 36 games and a place of 16, Empoli still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 8 wins, 13 draws, and 15 defeats with a 44:52 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on S. Shpendi (13 goals), B. Popov (5 goals), M. Nasti (4 goals), with creative support from S. Elia (9 assists), Rareș Ilie (4 assists), S. Shpendi (2 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 4 wins, 11 draws, and 3 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with P. Pellegri, N. Haas unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Avellino Analysis

From their first 36 matches, Avellino have collected 46 points and now occupy 8 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 12 wins, 10 draws, and 14 losses, while the 42:54 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Tommaso Biasci (12 goals), Lorenco Šimić (4 goals), M. Palumbo (4 goals), with creative support from D. Sounas (4 assists), Tommaso Biasci (3 assists), M. Palumbo (3 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 5 draws, and 9 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Empoli won 2 times, Avellino won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 7:4 from Empoli's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.75 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (83.8%)
Predicted formations: Empoli 4-2-3-1 / Avellino 4-3-1-2
Missing players: Empoli 2, Avellino 0
H2H summary: Empoli wins 2, draws 1, Avellino wins 1
Stats
Empoli Empoli
Avellino Avellino
Shots on Goal
9
Shots on Goal
2
Shots off Goal
3
Shots off Goal
3
Blocked Shots
5
Blocked Shots
0
4 Corner Kicks 2
21 Fouls 22
2 Offsides 1
43% Ball Possession 57%
17 Total Shots 5
9 Shots on Goal 2
3 Shots off Goal 3
5 Blocked Shots 0
13 Shots insidebox 1
4 Shots outsidebox 4
2 Goalkeeper Saves 7
305 Total passes 419
215 Passes accurate 320
2.41 expected_goals 0.20
🟨 3 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 1 🟥

Lineups

Empoli
Formation
Avellino
A. Fulignati
A. Fulignati
G. Guarino
G. Guarino
S. Romagnoli
S. Romagnoli
M. Lovato
M. Lovato
A. Candela
A. Candela
L. Magnino
L. Magnino
G. Yepes
🎯
G. Yepes
N. Haas
N. Haas
J. Ceesay
J. Ceesay
M. Nasti
M. Nasti
S. Shpendi
S. Shpendi
G. Daffara
G. Daffara
T. Cancellotti
T. Cancellotti
P. Enrici
P. Enrici
A. Izzo
A. Izzo
A. Fontanarosa
A. Fontanarosa
D. Sounas
D. Sounas
L. Palmiero
L. Palmiero
M. Besaggio
M. Besaggio
M. Palumbo
M. Palumbo
C. Patierno
C. Patierno
T. Biasci
T. Biasci
Empoli 3-5-2
Starting XI
21
A. Fulignati
G
34
G. Guarino
D
4
S. Romagnoli
D
20
M. Lovato
⚽ 58'
D
26
A. Candela
M
8
L. Magnino
M
14
G. Yepes
🎯 58' ↓ 84' 🟨 83'
M
32
N. Haas
↓ 69' 🟨 46'
M
15
J. Ceesay
↓ 69'
M
19
M. Nasti
↓ 54'
F
11
S. Shpendi
↓ 84'
F
Substitutes
1
S. Perisan
G
2
M. Curto
D
7
S. Elia
↑ 69' 🟨 77'
M
18
A. Ghion
↑ 84'
M
17
D. Fila
F
70
E. Saporiti
M
5
N. Obaretin
D
99
F. Bianchi
↑ 84'
F
6
D. Degli Innocenti
↑ 69'
M
10
R. Ilie
M
27
B. Moruzzi
D
77
B. Popov
↑ 54'
F
Avellino 4-3-1-2
Starting XI
30
G. Daffara
G
29
T. Cancellotti
↓ 65'
D
56
P. Enrici
D
4
A. Izzo
D
63
A. Fontanarosa
🟥 90+7'
D
24
D. Sounas
↓ 65' 🟨 57'
M
6
L. Palmiero
M
39
M. Besaggio
↓ 73'
M
20
M. Palumbo
M
9
C. Patierno
↓ 83'
F
14
T. Biasci
↓ 46'
F
Substitutes
53
J. Sassi
G
99
A. Favilli
F
10
R. Russo
↑ 46'
F
8
L. Pandolfi
↑ 73'
F
18
L. Sgarbi
F
2
F. Missori
↑ 65'
D
27
A. Le Borgne
↑ 83'
M
21
M. Armellino
M
7
G. Tutino
F
94
R. Insigne
↑ 65'
F
11
L. D'Andrea
F
16
J. Kumi
M
Last matches: Empoli
08.05.26
Ser
Empoli
Monza
2
2
D
25.04.26
Ser
Empoli
Venezia
0
2
L
19.04.26
Ser
Empoli
Virtus Entella
1
1
D
12.04.26
Ser
Empoli
Padova
0
1
L
06.04.26
Ser
Empoli
Sampdoria
0
1
L
22.03.26
Ser
Empoli
Pescara
4
2
W
17.03.26
Ser
Empoli
Spezia
1
1
D
14.03.26
Ser
Empoli
Mantova
2
2
D
08.03.26
Ser
Empoli
Catanzaro
2
3
L
04.03.26
Ser
Empoli
Bari
1
2
L
28.02.26
Ser
Empoli
Cesena
1
1
D
20.02.26
Ser
Empoli
Frosinone
2
2
D
15.02.26
Ser
Empoli
Reggiana
1
1
D
11.02.26
Ser
Empoli
Juve Stabia
1
2
L
07.02.26
Ser
Empoli
Palermo
2
3
L
31.01.26
Ser
Empoli
Modena
0
0
D
23.01.26
Ser
Empoli
Carrarese
0
3
L
17.01.26
Ser
Empoli
Sudtirol
0
1
L
10.01.26
Ser
Empoli
Cesena
1
0
W
27.12.25
Ser
Empoli
Frosinone
1
1
D
Last matches: Avellino
12.05.26
Ser
Avellino
Catanzaro
0
3
L
08.05.26
Ser
Avellino
Modena
1
0
W
24.04.26
Ser
Avellino
Bari
2
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Avellino
Mantova
2
0
W
11.04.26
Ser
Avellino
Catanzaro
1
1
D
05.04.26
Ser
Avellino
Palermo
0
2
L
22.03.26
Ser
Avellino
Sampdoria
1
2
L
18.03.26
Ser
Avellino
Sudtirol
3
2
W
15.03.26
Ser
Avellino
Virtus Entella
2
1
W
07.03.26
Ser
Avellino
Padova
1
0
W
03.03.26
Ser
Avellino
Venezia
0
4
L
28.02.26
Ser
Avellino
Juve Stabia
0
0
D
22.02.26
Ser
Avellino
Reggiana
1
1
D
15.02.26
Ser
Avellino
Pescara
0
1
L
11.02.26
Ser
Avellino
Frosinone
1
3
L
08.02.26
Ser
Avellino
Monza
1
2
L
31.01.26
Ser
Avellino
Cesena
3
1
W
24.01.26
Ser
Avellino
Spezia
0
1
L
17.01.26
Ser
Avellino
Carrarese
1
2
L
10.01.26
Ser
Avellino
Sampdoria
2
1
W
H2H: Empoli vs Avellino
01.05.26
H2H
Empoli
Avellino
1
0
W
22.11.25
H2H
Avellino
Empoli
0
3
W
27.02.18
H2H
Empoli
Avellino
1
1
D
30.09.17
H2H
Avellino
Empoli
3
2
L
Last matches: Empoli
19.04.26
Ser
Empoli
Virtus Entella
1
1
D
22.03.26
Ser
Empoli
Pescara
4
2
W
14.03.26
Ser
Empoli
Mantova
2
2
D
28.02.26
Ser
Empoli
Cesena
1
1
D
15.02.26
Ser
Empoli
Reggiana
1
1
D
11.02.26
Ser
Empoli
Juve Stabia
1
2
L
31.01.26
Ser
Empoli
Modena
0
0
D
17.01.26
Ser
Empoli
Sudtirol
0
1
L
27.12.25
Ser
Empoli
Frosinone
1
1
D
07.12.25
Ser
Empoli
Palermo
1
3
L
29.11.25
Ser
Empoli
Bari
5
0
W
08.11.25
Ser
Empoli
Catanzaro
1
0
W
28.10.25
Ser
Empoli
Sampdoria
1
1
D
19.10.25
Ser
Empoli
Venezia
1
1
D
01.10.25
Ser
Empoli
Monza
1
1
D
28.09.25
Ser
Empoli
Carrarese
2
2
D
14.09.25
Ser
Empoli
Spezia
1
1
D
23.08.25
Ser
Empoli
Padova
3
1
W
15.08.25
Cop
Empoli
Reggiana
1
1
D
25.05.25
Ser
Empoli
Hellas Verona
1
2
L
H2H at home: Empoli
01.05.26
H2H
Empoli
Avellino
1
0
W
27.02.18
H2H
Empoli
Avellino
1
1
D
Last matches: Avellino
12.05.26
Ser
Avellino
Catanzaro
0
3
L
18.04.26
Ser
Avellino
Mantova
2
0
W
05.04.26
Ser
Avellino
Palermo
0
2
L
22.03.26
Ser
Avellino
Sampdoria
1
2
L
15.03.26
Ser
Avellino
Virtus Entella
2
1
W
03.03.26
Ser
Avellino
Venezia
0
4
L
22.02.26
Ser
Avellino
Reggiana
1
1
D
08.02.26
Ser
Avellino
Monza
1
2
L
24.01.26
Ser
Avellino
Spezia
0
1
L
27.12.25
Ser
Avellino
Bari
1
1
D
13.12.25
Ser
Avellino
Catanzaro
0
1
L
29.11.25
Ser
Avellino
Sudtirol
1
0
W
09.11.25
Ser
Avellino
Cesena
0
3
L
28.10.25
Ser
Avellino
Pescara
1
1
D
18.10.25
Ser
Avellino
Juve Stabia
0
2
L
30.09.25
Ser
Avellino
Padova
2
2
D
21.09.25
Ser
Avellino
Carrarese
4
3
W
31.08.25
Ser
Avellino
Modena
1
1
D
24.08.25
Ser
Avellino
Frosinone
0
2
L
10.08.25
Cop
Avellino
Audace Cerignola
0
1
L
H2H away: Avellino
01.05.26
H2H
Empoli
Avellino
1
0
L
27.02.18
H2H
Empoli
Avellino
1
1
D

Standings

Serie B: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 24 10 4 77:31 46 82
W D W W D
2 38 23 12 3 76:34 42 81
W W W W D
3 38 22 10 6 61:32 29 76
D L W W W
4 38 20 12 6 61:33 28 72
L W D W D
5 38 15 14 9 62:51 11 59
L L W D D
6 38 15 10 13 49:36 13 55
L W L L D
7 38 11 18 9 44:45 -1 51
D L D D W
8 38 13 10 15 43:55 -12 49
W L W W D
9 38 13 7 18 45:57 -12 46
L W W L W
10 38 12 10 16 39:49 -10 46
W W L W W
11 38 12 10 16 45:56 -11 46
L D D L L
12 38 10 14 14 47:52 -5 44
L D L D L
13 38 11 11 16 35:48 -13 44
L W D L W
14 38 10 12 16 36:51 -15 42
W L W D D
15 38 9 14 15 47:54 -7 41
D W L D L
16 38 8 17 13 38:48 -10 41
D L L L D
17 38 10 10 18 38:60 -22 40
W W L L L
18 38 9 10 19 36:56 -20 37
W L D L W
19 38 8 11 19 43:59 -16 35
D D L W L
20 38 7 14 17 51:66 -15 35
D L D D L
Promotion - Serie A
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Serie B (Play Out)
Relegation

Missing Players

Empoli 2 missing
-
P. Pellegri
Missing Fixture Jumpers knee
OUT
-
N. Haas
Missing Fixture Jumpers knee
OUT
Avellino 0 missing
No missing players data