ECUADOR LIGA PRO
16.08.2026 21:15
Estadio George Capwell
Referee: Henry Leonardo Arizaga Piedra, Ecuador
Emelec
Match Timeline
Tecnico Universitario
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
32'
L. Klimowicz
Emelec
44'
L. Klimowicz · Assist: L. Fragozo
Emelec
🔄
54'
W. Caicedo ↔ C. Garcia
Tecnico Universitario
62'
J. Anaya · Assist: B. Delgado
Tecnico Universitario
🔄
65'
L. Gomez ↔ I. Cuero
Emelec
🔄
65'
L. Klimowicz ↔ R. Saya
Emelec
🔄
71'
G. Napoli ↔ V. Griffith
Emelec
🔄
71'
L. Fragozo ↔ J. Ruiz
Emelec
🟨
73'
Julian Anaya
Tecnico Universitario
🔄
74'
B. Delgado ↔ M. A. Carrasco Bonilla
Tecnico Universitario
🔄
74'
S. Mena ↔ B. Ona
Tecnico Universitario
🔄
86'
C. A. Cuero Q. ↔ A. Cela
Tecnico Universitario
🔄
86'
L. Estupinan ↔ A. Castillo
Tecnico Universitario
🔄
88'
R. Carrillo ↔ J. Ayovi
Emelec
🟨
90+5'
Liberman Torres
Tecnico Universitario

Emelec vs Tecnico Universitario Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 61.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
58.6%
-
BTTS Yes
58.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
61.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Emelec Win 58.6%
Draw 21.4%
Tecnico Universitario Win 20%
Expected Goals (xG)
Emelec1
Tecnico Universitario0.95
Recent Form (Last 5)
Emelec Emelec
WWDLW
19 GF / 28 GA
Tecnico Universitario Tecnico Universitario
WLDWL
20 GF / 33 GA
Key Stats
0.79
Average Goals Scored
0.8
1.17
Average Goals Conceded
1.32
9
BTTS Yes
8
4
Over 2.5
10
3.08
Shots on Goal
3.83

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Emelec Emelec 24 matches
Tecnico Universitario Tecnico Universitario 25 matches
Emelec Statistic Tecnico Universitario
7 Wins 8
8 Draws 2
9 Losses 15
19 Goals For 20
28 Goals Against 33
0.79 Avg Goals Scored 0.8
1.17 Avg Goals Conceded 1.32
9 BTTS Yes 8
17 Over 1.5 15
4 Over 2.5 10
2 Over 3.5 2
9 Clean Sheets 5
9 Failed To Score 12
3.08 Shots On Goal 3.83
10.04 Total Shots 11.96
4.29 Corners 4.83
43.3% Ball Possession 42.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Tecnico Universitario. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Emelec expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Tecnico Universitario in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Tecnico Universitario having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Emelec Analysis

Emelec sit 14 with 25 points after 23 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 7 wins, 7 draws, and 9 losses, together with goals at 19:28, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Luca Klimowicz (4 goals), Ignacio Guerrico (2 goals), Juan Ruiz Gómez (2 goals), with creative support from Francisco Pizzini (3 assists), Angelo Mina (2 assists), Luca Klimowicz (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, the split record of 5 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Tecnico Universitario Analysis

With 26 points from 23 games and a place of 13, Tecnico Universitario still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 8 wins, 2 draws, and 13 losses, together with goals at 20:29, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through Mateo Castano (3 goals), Julian Anaya (3 goals), Johan Bocanegra (2 goals), with creative support from Mateo Castano (2 assists), Johan Bocanegra (2 assists), Luis Estupiñan (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 3 wins, 1 draws, and 8 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Emelec won 7 times, Tecnico Universitario won 2 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:8 from Emelec's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 1.6 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (80%)
Predicted formations: Emelec 4-2-3-1 / Tecnico Universitario 4-4-2
H2H summary: Emelec wins 7, draws 6, Tecnico Universitario wins 2

Standings

Liga Pro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 24 2 4 73:33 40 74
W W L D W
2 30 15 6 9 41:33 8 51
W L W W L
3 30 14 8 8 33:28 5 50
D D D W W
4 29 13 9 7 49:26 23 48
W D D W D
5 30 13 7 10 31:24 7 46
D W D L W
6 30 11 11 8 32:25 7 44
D D W L W
7 30 11 8 11 33:34 -1 41
L W D L W
8 30 10 9 11 31:32 -1 39
L D W L L
9 30 10 9 11 33:36 -3 39
W L L W W
10 30 9 11 10 35:38 -3 38
L D D W D
11 30 10 9 11 25:34 -9 36
L W D W L
12 30 10 6 14 25:37 -12 36
D L W L D
13 29 9 6 14 35:45 -10 33
W L L L W
14 30 10 2 18 28:42 -14 32
W L L W L
15 30 7 7 16 19:31 -12 28
D L W L L
16 30 5 6 19 17:42 -25 21
D L L W L
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs