ECUADOR LIGA PRO
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio George Capwell
Referee: Bryan Loayza, Ecuador
Emelec
Match Timeline
Mushuc Runa SC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
28'
J. Ruiz · Assist: F. Pizzini
Emelec
🟨
45'
Ronny Biojo
Mushuc Runa SC
🔄
55'
O. Herrera ↔ M. Carabali
Emelec
🔄
62'
F. Pizzini ↔ L. Fragozo
Emelec
64'
R. Carrillo
Mushuc Runa SC
🟨
67'
Gonzalo Nápoli
Emelec
🔄
79'
G. Napoli ↔ J. Cevallos
Emelec
🔄
79'
J. Ruiz ↔ A. Viteri
Emelec
🔄
80'
J. Cusme ↔ F. Carabali
Mushuc Runa SC
🔄
80'
C. Angulo ↔ K. Peralta
Mushuc Runa SC
🔄
83'
R. Ibarra ↔ B. Corozo
Mushuc Runa SC
🔄
83'
E. Davila ↔ J. Gonzalez
Mushuc Runa SC
🔄
89'
M. Perea ↔ J. Caicedo
Mushuc Runa SC

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 69.8%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
69.8%
-
BTTS Yes
67.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
83.4%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Emelec Win 69.8%
Draw 9.9%
Mushuc Runa SC Win 20.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Emelec1.11
Mushuc Runa SC1.24
Recent Form (Last 5)
Emelec Emelec
WWDLW
17 GF / 23 GA
Mushuc Runa SC Mushuc Runa SC
WLDWL
26 GF / 30 GA
Key Stats
0.85
Average Goals Scored
1.3
1.15
Average Goals Conceded
1.5
7
BTTS Yes
13
3
Over 2.5
12
2.9
Shots on Goal
3.7

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Emelec Emelec 20 matches
Mushuc Runa SC Mushuc Runa SC 20 matches
Emelec Statistic Mushuc Runa SC
7 Wins 6
6 Draws 6
7 Losses 8
17 Goals For 26
23 Goals Against 30
0.85 Avg Goals Scored 1.3
1.15 Avg Goals Conceded 1.5
7 BTTS Yes 13
14 Over 1.5 14
3 Over 2.5 12
2 Over 3.5 9
8 Clean Sheets 6
7 Failed To Score 4
2.9 Shots On Goal 3.7
9.85 Total Shots 12.7
4.15 Corners 4.4
43% Ball Possession 47.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Mushuc Runa SC. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Emelec Analysis

So far, Emelec have built a campaign that leaves them 9 in the table on 24 points from 19 matches. Their overall return of 7 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses with goals at 16:17 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Luca Klimowicz (4 goals), Romario Caicedo (2 goals), Ignacio Guerrico (1 goals), with creative support from Angelo Mina (2 assists), Francisco Pizzini (2 assists), Luca Klimowicz (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, their split return of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Mushuc Runa SC Analysis

From their first 19 matches, Mushuc Runa SC have collected 21 points and now occupy 13 place in the table. Their overall return of 5 wins, 6 draws, and 8 losses with goals at 24:29 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by R. Carrillo (4 goals), Kevin Velasco (2 goals), Renato Ibarra (2 goals), with creative support from Nicolás Dávila (3 assists), Kevin Velasco (2 assists), Jackson González (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses points toward a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Emelec won 8 times, Mushuc Runa SC won 2 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 25:12 from Emelec's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.47 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.2%)
Predicted formations: Emelec 4-4-2 / Mushuc Runa SC 4-4-2
H2H summary: Emelec wins 8, draws 5, Mushuc Runa SC wins 2
Stats
Emelec Emelec
Mushuc Runa SC Mushuc Runa SC
Shots on Goal
4
Shots on Goal
3
Shots off Goal
6
Shots off Goal
1
Blocked Shots
3
Blocked Shots
3
11 Corner Kicks 7
6 Fouls 11
2 Offsides 1
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Goal 3
6 Shots off Goal 1
3 Blocked Shots 3
10 Shots insidebox 3
3 Shots outsidebox 4
2 Goalkeeper Saves 3
398 Total passes 339
322 Passes accurate 267
2.03 expected_goals 1.14
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Emelec
Formation
Mushuc Runa SC
P. Ortiz
P. Ortiz
O. Herrera
O. Herrera
A. Leguizamon
A. Leguizamon
E. Segura
E. Segura
I. Guerrico
I. Guerrico
V. Griffith
V. Griffith
G. Napoli
G. Napoli
F. Pizzini
🎯
F. Pizzini
A. Mina
A. Mina
J. Ruiz
J. Ruiz
L. Klimowicz
L. Klimowicz
R. Formento
R. Formento
C. Angulo
C. Angulo
R. Biojo
R. Biojo
J. Cusme
J. Cusme
J. Hernandez
J. Hernandez
T. Minda
T. Minda
E. Davila
E. Davila
A. Zambrano
A. Zambrano
M. Perea
M. Perea
R. Carrillo
R. Carrillo
R. Ibarra
R. Ibarra
Emelec 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
12
P. Ortiz
G
80
O. Herrera
↓ 55'
D
2
A. Leguizamon
D
4
E. Segura
D
3
I. Guerrico
D
6
V. Griffith
M
8
G. Napoli
↓ 79' 🟨 67'
M
10
F. Pizzini
🎯 28' ↓ 62'
M
5
A. Mina
M
19
J. Ruiz
⚽ 28' ↓ 79'
M
7
L. Klimowicz
F
Substitutes
1
M. Valero
G
17
J. Ayovi
F
27
F. Leon
D
15
L. Fragozo
↑ 62'
F
21
J. Cevallos
↑ 79'
M
16
S. Quintero
M
51
S. Valencia
24
A. Viteri
↑ 79'
28
B. Tobar
M
18
M. Carabali
↑ 55'
25
R. Narvaez
M
Mushuc Runa SC 4-4-2
Starting XI
25
R. Formento
G
99
C. Angulo
↓ 80'
D
4
R. Biojo
🟨 45'
D
50
J. Cusme
↓ 80'
D
33
J. Hernandez
D
7
T. Minda
M
5
E. Davila
↓ 83'
M
8
A. Zambrano
M
28
M. Perea
↓ 89'
M
9
R. Carrillo
⚽ 64'
F
30
R. Ibarra
↓ 83'
F
Substitutes
42
W. Pabon
G
22
J. Collaguazo
12
F. Carabali
↑ 80'
D
61
J. Caicedo
↑ 89'
F
23
L. Lemos
M
26
K. Peralta
↑ 80'
D
2
F. Flor
D
19
B. Corozo
↑ 83'
M
37
J. L. Mancilla Quinones
D
18
J. Gonzalez
↑ 83'
M
52
D. Merino
M
Last matches: Emelec
24.08.26
Lig
Emelec
LDU de Quito
0
2
L
16.08.26
Lig
Emelec
Tecnico Universitario
2
1
W
10.08.26
Lig
Emelec
Guayaquil City FC
0
0
D
02.08.26
Lig
Emelec
Aucas
0
2
L
28.07.26
Lig
Emelec
Deportivo Cuenca
1
2
L
20.07.26
Lig
Emelec
Independiente del Valle
1
6
L
17.07.26
Lig
Emelec
Orense SC
2
0
W
12.07.26
Lig
Emelec
Barcelona SC
0
0
D
05.07.26
Lig
Emelec
Delfin SC
1
1
D
31.05.26
Lig
Emelec
Universidad Catolica
1
0
W
24.05.26
Lig
Emelec
Macara
2
0
W
17.05.26
Lig
Emelec
Manta FC
0
0
D
10.05.26
Lig
Emelec
Libertad
1
1
D
03.05.26
Lig
Emelec
Leones del Norte
0
2
L
25.04.26
Lig
Emelec
LDU de Quito
1
0
W
22.04.26
Lig
Emelec
Tecnico Universitario
1
0
W
18.04.26
Lig
Emelec
Guayaquil City FC
1
3
L
12.04.26
Lig
Emelec
Aucas
0
2
L
09.04.26
Lig
Emelec
Universidad Catolica
1
1
D
05.04.26
Lig
Emelec
Deportivo Cuenca
0
2
L
Last matches: Mushuc Runa SC
22.08.26
Lig
Mushuc Runa SC
Deportivo Cuenca
0
0
D
16.08.26
Lig
Mushuc Runa SC
Barcelona SC
0
0
D
10.08.26
Lig
Mushuc Runa SC
Tecnico Universitario
3
0
W
01.08.26
Lig
Mushuc Runa SC
Manta FC
2
1
W
27.07.26
Lig
Mushuc Runa SC
Libertad
0
2
L
20.07.26
Lig
Mushuc Runa SC
Orense SC
2
1
W
14.07.26
Lig
Mushuc Runa SC
Macara
1
2
L
11.07.26
Lig
Mushuc Runa SC
Independiente del Valle
1
4
L
06.07.26
Lig
Mushuc Runa SC
Universidad Catolica
3
2
W
31.05.26
Lig
Mushuc Runa SC
Aucas
0
0
D
23.05.26
Lig
Mushuc Runa SC
Guayaquil City FC
2
2
D
17.05.26
Lig
Mushuc Runa SC
Leones del Norte
1
3
L
12.05.26
Lig
Mushuc Runa SC
LDU de Quito
1
3
L
03.05.26
Lig
Mushuc Runa SC
Delfin SC
0
1
L
25.04.26
Lig
Mushuc Runa SC
Deportivo Cuenca
4
1
W
22.04.26
Lig
Mushuc Runa SC
Barcelona SC
1
2
L
18.04.26
Lig
Mushuc Runa SC
Tecnico Universitario
1
0
W
11.04.26
Lig
Mushuc Runa SC
Manta FC
1
0
W
07.04.26
Lig
Mushuc Runa SC
Libertad
2
2
D
22.03.26
Lig
Mushuc Runa SC
Emelec
2
0
W
H2H: Emelec vs Mushuc Runa SC
24.07.26
H2H
Emelec
Mushuc Runa SC
1
1
D
22.03.26
H2H
Mushuc Runa SC
Emelec
2
0
L
20.07.25
H2H
Emelec
Mushuc Runa SC
1
0
W
30.03.25
H2H
Mushuc Runa SC
Emelec
1
1
D
11.08.24
H2H
Mushuc Runa SC
Emelec
3
0
L
09.03.24
H2H
Emelec
Mushuc Runa SC
0
0
D
23.09.23
H2H
Emelec
Mushuc Runa SC
3
1
W
23.04.23
H2H
Mushuc Runa SC
Emelec
0
0
D
02.10.22
H2H
Mushuc Runa SC
Emelec
0
0
D
08.05.22
H2H
Emelec
Mushuc Runa SC
4
0
W
06.11.21
H2H
Emelec
Mushuc Runa SC
2
0
W
22.05.21
H2H
Mushuc Runa SC
Emelec
1
2
W
28.11.20
H2H
Mushuc Runa SC
Emelec
2
3
W
20.08.20
H2H
Emelec
Mushuc Runa SC
2
0
W
03.11.19
H2H
Emelec
Mushuc Runa SC
6
1
W
Last matches: Emelec
16.08.26
Lig
Emelec
Tecnico Universitario
2
1
W
02.08.26
Lig
Emelec
Aucas
0
2
L
12.07.26
Lig
Emelec
Barcelona SC
0
0
D
31.05.26
Lig
Emelec
Universidad Catolica
1
0
W
24.05.26
Lig
Emelec
Macara
2
0
W
10.05.26
Lig
Emelec
Libertad
1
1
D
25.04.26
Lig
Emelec
LDU de Quito
1
0
W
18.04.26
Lig
Emelec
Guayaquil City FC
1
3
L
05.04.26
Lig
Emelec
Deportivo Cuenca
0
2
L
20.03.26
Lig
Emelec
Independiente del Valle
2
0
W
15.03.26
Lig
Emelec
Orense SC
2
1
W
01.03.26
Lig
Emelec
Delfin SC
1
1
D
H2H at home: Emelec
24.07.26
H2H
Emelec
Mushuc Runa SC
1
1
D
20.07.25
H2H
Emelec
Mushuc Runa SC
1
0
W
09.03.24
H2H
Emelec
Mushuc Runa SC
0
0
D
23.09.23
H2H
Emelec
Mushuc Runa SC
3
1
W
08.05.22
H2H
Emelec
Mushuc Runa SC
4
0
W
06.11.21
H2H
Emelec
Mushuc Runa SC
2
0
W
20.08.20
H2H
Emelec
Mushuc Runa SC
2
0
W
03.11.19
H2H
Emelec
Mushuc Runa SC
6
1
W
Last matches: Mushuc Runa SC
22.08.26
Lig
Mushuc Runa SC
Deportivo Cuenca
0
0
D
10.08.26
Lig
Mushuc Runa SC
Tecnico Universitario
3
0
W
01.08.26
Lig
Mushuc Runa SC
Manta FC
2
1
W
14.07.26
Lig
Mushuc Runa SC
Macara
1
2
L
06.07.26
Lig
Mushuc Runa SC
Universidad Catolica
3
2
W
17.05.26
Lig
Mushuc Runa SC
Leones del Norte
1
3
L
03.05.26
Lig
Mushuc Runa SC
Delfin SC
0
1
L
22.04.26
Lig
Mushuc Runa SC
Barcelona SC
1
2
L
07.04.26
Lig
Mushuc Runa SC
Libertad
2
2
D
19.03.26
Lig
Mushuc Runa SC
Orense SC
2
3
L
07.03.26
Lig
Mushuc Runa SC
Independiente del Valle
1
3
L
21.02.26
Lig
Mushuc Runa SC
Aucas
1
1
D
H2H away: Mushuc Runa SC
24.07.26
H2H
Emelec
Mushuc Runa SC
1
1
D
20.07.25
H2H
Emelec
Mushuc Runa SC
1
0
L
09.03.24
H2H
Emelec
Mushuc Runa SC
0
0
D
23.09.23
H2H
Emelec
Mushuc Runa SC
3
1
L
08.05.22
H2H
Emelec
Mushuc Runa SC
4
0
L
06.11.21
H2H
Emelec
Mushuc Runa SC
2
0
L
20.08.20
H2H
Emelec
Mushuc Runa SC
2
0
L
03.11.19
H2H
Emelec
Mushuc Runa SC
6
1
L

Standings

Liga Pro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 22 1 3 64:26 38 67
W W W W W
2 26 13 5 8 30:26 4 44
W L W W L
3 26 12 7 7 45:23 22 43
W D L W D
4 26 12 6 8 33:26 7 42
L D W W W
5 26 12 5 9 26:20 6 41
W W L W W
6 26 10 9 7 28:20 8 39
W D L D L
7 26 10 7 9 29:29 0 37
W D W W W
8 26 9 8 9 28:28 0 35
L W L D W
9 26 8 9 9 32:34 -2 33
D D W W L
10 26 8 9 9 25:29 -4 33
W D D L D
11 26 9 5 12 22:32 -10 32
D L L L W
12 26 8 6 12 30:39 -9 30
L W D L L
13 26 8 8 10 21:31 -10 29
L W D L L
14 26 8 2 16 23:37 -14 26
L L L L W
15 26 6 6 14 17:28 -11 24
L L D L L
16 26 4 5 17 12:37 -25 17
L L W L L
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs