ECUADOR LIGA PRO
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio George Capwell
Referee: Yerson Zambrano, Ecuador
Emelec
Match Timeline
Libertad
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
3'
Aníbal Leguizamón
Emelec
🟨
23'
Ariel García
Libertad
24'
S. Quintero · Assist: A. Mina
Emelec
41'
G. J. Cortez Casierra
Libertad
🔄
46'
C. Valencia ↔ J. Bravo
Libertad
🔄
56'
A. Garcia ↔ R. Zambrano
Libertad
🟨
69'
Luis Fragozo
Emelec
🟨
70'
Gabriel Cortez
Libertad
🔄
70'
B. Corozo ↔ A. Batioja
Libertad
🔄
70'
G. J. Cortez Casierra ↔ S. Bueno
Libertad
🔄
74'
F. Pizzini ↔ J. Ruiz
Emelec
🔄
77'
L. Fragozo ↔ J. Gonzaga
Emelec
🔄
86'
C. Gruezo ↔ M. Lucas
Libertad
🔄
87'
G. Napoli ↔ A. Viteri
Emelec

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 87.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 50.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 39.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
87.7%
-
BTTS BTTS No
50.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
39.8%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
79.1%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Emelec Win 87.7%
Draw 12%
Libertad Win 40%
Expected Goals (xG)
Emelec0.98
Libertad1.05
Recent Form (Last 5)
Emelec Emelec
WWDLW
9 GF / 15 GA
Libertad Libertad
WLDWL
11 GF / 16 GA
Key Stats
0.75
Average Goals Scored
0.92
1.25
Average Goals Conceded
1.33
4
BTTS Yes
6
2
Over 2.5
6
3.08
Shots on Goal
3.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Emelec Emelec 12 matches
Libertad Libertad 12 matches
Emelec Statistic Libertad
4 Wins 3
2 Draws 4
6 Losses 5
9 Goals For 11
15 Goals Against 16
0.75 Avg Goals Scored 0.92
1.25 Avg Goals Conceded 1.33
4 BTTS Yes 6
9 Over 1.5 8
2 Over 2.5 6
1 Over 3.5 2
3 Clean Sheets 3
5 Failed To Score 5
3.08 Shots On Goal 3.5
10.08 Total Shots 10.83
4.5 Corners 4
48.2% Ball Possession 49.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Libertad. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Emelec expected to line up in 5-3-2 and Libertad in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Libertad having the stronger overall control.

Emelec Analysis

Emelec sit 12 with 14 points after 12 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses, together with goals at 9:15, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Luca Klimowicz (2 goals), R. Caicedo (2 goals), I. Guerrico (1 goals), with creative support from Luca Klimowicz (1 assists), I. Guerrico (1 assists), A. Mina (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 3 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Libertad Analysis

Libertad sit 14 with 13 points after 12 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 5 defeats with a 11:16 goal balance points toward poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Going forward they depend heavily on A. Chere (3 goals), G. J. Cortez Casierra (2 goals), V. Branda (2 goals), with creative support from G. J. Cortez Casierra (3 assists), J. Guisamano (2 assists), A. Chere (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, the split record of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Emelec won 2 times, Libertad won 1 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 7:5 from Emelec's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 1.71 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (99.6%)
Predicted formations: Emelec 5-3-2 / Libertad 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Emelec wins 2, draws 4, Libertad wins 1
Stats
Emelec Emelec
Libertad Libertad
Shots on Goal
5
Shots on Goal
5
Shots off Goal
13
Shots off Goal
3
Blocked Shots
7
Blocked Shots
1
11 Corner Kicks 1
15 Fouls 12
3 Offsides 2
55% Ball Possession 45%
25 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Goal 5
13 Shots off Goal 3
7 Blocked Shots 1
14 Shots insidebox 2
11 Shots outsidebox 7
4 Goalkeeper Saves 4
383 Total passes 333
322 Passes accurate 276
2.87 expected_goals 1.08
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Emelec
Formation
Libertad
P. Ortiz
P. Ortiz
R. Caicedo
R. Caicedo
A. Leguizamon
A. Leguizamon
S. Valencia
S. Valencia
I. Guerrico
I. Guerrico
S. Quintero
S. Quintero
A. Mina
🎯
A. Mina
F. Pizzini
F. Pizzini
G. Napoli
G. Napoli
L. Fragozo
L. Fragozo
L. Klimowicz
L. Klimowicz
D. Cabezas
D. Cabezas
E. Patta
E. Patta
B. Caicedo
B. Caicedo
C. Gruezo
C. Gruezo
A. Garcia
A. Garcia
J. G. Rodriguez Perlaza
J. G. Rodriguez Perlaza
B. Corozo
B. Corozo
C. Valencia
C. Valencia
I. Zambrano
I. Zambrano
A. Chere
A. Chere
G. J. Cortez Casierra
G. J. Cortez Casierra
Emelec 4-1-4-1
Starting XI
12
P. Ortiz
G
14
R. Caicedo
D
2
A. Leguizamon
🟨 3'
D
51
S. Valencia
3
I. Guerrico
D
16
S. Quintero
⚽ 24'
M
5
A. Mina
🎯 24'
M
10
F. Pizzini
↓ 74'
M
8
G. Napoli
↓ 87'
M
15
L. Fragozo
↓ 77' 🟨 69'
M
7
L. Klimowicz
F
Substitutes
22
E. Castaneda
G
27
F. Leon
D
80
O. Herrera
D
19
J. Ruiz
↑ 74'
F
4
E. Segura
D
20
J. Gonzaga
↑ 77'
F
24
A. Viteri
↑ 87'
18
M. Carabali
25
R. Narvaez
M
Libertad 5-3-2
Starting XI
12
D. Cabezas
G
17
E. Patta
D
6
B. Caicedo
D
5
C. Gruezo
↓ 86'
D
36
A. Garcia
↓ 56' 🟨 23'
D
20
J. G. Rodriguez Perlaza
D
19
B. Corozo
↓ 70'
M
63
C. Valencia
↓ 46'
M
7
I. Zambrano
M
33
A. Chere
F
10
G. J. Cortez Casierra
⚽ 41' ↓ 70' 🟨 70'
F
Substitutes
22
J. Mina
G
29
R. Zambrano
↑ 56'
D
11
H. Batalla
F
25
M. Lucas
↑ 86'
D
8
S. Castro
M
30
J. Bravo
↑ 46'
M
23
J. Guisamano
M
49
D. Coronel
F
70
V. Branda
F
13
A. Batioja
↑ 70'
F
27
S. Bueno
↑ 70'
M
Last matches: Emelec
24.07.26
Lig
Emelec
Mushuc Runa SC
1
1
D
20.07.26
Lig
Emelec
Independiente del Valle
1
6
L
17.07.26
Lig
Emelec
Orense SC
2
0
W
12.07.26
Lig
Emelec
Barcelona SC
0
0
D
05.07.26
Lig
Emelec
Delfin SC
1
1
D
31.05.26
Lig
Emelec
Universidad Catolica
1
0
W
24.05.26
Lig
Emelec
Macara
2
0
W
17.05.26
Lig
Emelec
Manta FC
0
0
D
03.05.26
Lig
Emelec
Leones del Norte
0
2
L
25.04.26
Lig
Emelec
LDU de Quito
1
0
W
22.04.26
Lig
Emelec
Tecnico Universitario
1
0
W
18.04.26
Lig
Emelec
Guayaquil City FC
1
3
L
12.04.26
Lig
Emelec
Aucas
0
2
L
09.04.26
Lig
Emelec
Universidad Catolica
1
1
D
05.04.26
Lig
Emelec
Deportivo Cuenca
0
2
L
22.03.26
Lig
Emelec
Mushuc Runa SC
0
2
L
20.03.26
Lig
Emelec
Independiente del Valle
2
0
W
15.03.26
Lig
Emelec
Orense SC
2
1
W
07.03.26
Lig
Emelec
Barcelona SC
0
1
L
01.03.26
Lig
Emelec
Delfin SC
1
1
D
Last matches: Libertad
21.07.26
Lig
Libertad
Delfin SC
1
0
W
19.07.26
Lig
Libertad
Barcelona SC
0
1
L
15.07.26
Lig
Libertad
Tecnico Universitario
1
0
W
12.07.26
Lig
Libertad
LDU de Quito
0
0
D
04.07.26
Lig
Libertad
Leones del Norte
1
3
L
30.05.26
Lig
Libertad
Manta FC
1
2
L
23.05.26
Lig
Libertad
Independiente del Valle
3
2
W
16.05.26
Lig
Libertad
Deportivo Cuenca
0
1
L
02.05.26
Lig
Libertad
Aucas
3
2
W
26.04.26
Lig
Libertad
Macara
0
3
L
21.04.26
Lig
Libertad
Guayaquil City FC
0
1
L
18.04.26
Lig
Libertad
Universidad Catolica
0
2
L
12.04.26
Lig
Libertad
Orense SC
1
2
L
07.04.26
Lig
Libertad
Mushuc Runa SC
2
2
D
21.03.26
Lig
Libertad
Delfin SC
0
0
D
19.03.26
Lig
Libertad
Barcelona SC
0
0
D
13.03.26
Lig
Libertad
Tecnico Universitario
1
2
L
08.03.26
Lig
Libertad
LDU de Quito
2
1
W
28.02.26
Lig
Libertad
Leones del Norte
1
1
D
24.02.26
Lig
Libertad
Manta FC
1
0
W
H2H: Emelec vs Libertad
10.05.26
H2H
Emelec
Libertad
1
1
D
03.08.25
H2H
Libertad
Emelec
1
2
W
12.04.25
H2H
Emelec
Libertad
1
1
D
30.11.24
H2H
Libertad
Emelec
2
1
L
01.06.24
H2H
Emelec
Libertad
0
0
D
05.08.23
H2H
Libertad
Emelec
0
0
D
27.02.23
H2H
Emelec
Libertad
2
0
W
Last matches: Emelec
24.07.26
Lig
Emelec
Mushuc Runa SC
1
1
D
12.07.26
Lig
Emelec
Barcelona SC
0
0
D
31.05.26
Lig
Emelec
Universidad Catolica
1
0
W
24.05.26
Lig
Emelec
Macara
2
0
W
25.04.26
Lig
Emelec
LDU de Quito
1
0
W
18.04.26
Lig
Emelec
Guayaquil City FC
1
3
L
05.04.26
Lig
Emelec
Deportivo Cuenca
0
2
L
20.03.26
Lig
Emelec
Independiente del Valle
2
0
W
15.03.26
Lig
Emelec
Orense SC
2
1
W
01.03.26
Lig
Emelec
Delfin SC
1
1
D
H2H at home: Emelec
10.05.26
H2H
Emelec
Libertad
1
1
D
12.04.25
H2H
Emelec
Libertad
1
1
D
01.06.24
H2H
Emelec
Libertad
0
0
D
27.02.23
H2H
Emelec
Libertad
2
0
W
Last matches: Libertad
19.07.26
Lig
Libertad
Barcelona SC
0
1
L
12.07.26
Lig
Libertad
LDU de Quito
0
0
D
30.05.26
Lig
Libertad
Manta FC
1
2
L
23.05.26
Lig
Libertad
Independiente del Valle
3
2
W
26.04.26
Lig
Libertad
Macara
0
3
L
18.04.26
Lig
Libertad
Universidad Catolica
0
2
L
12.04.26
Lig
Libertad
Orense SC
1
2
L
21.03.26
Lig
Libertad
Delfin SC
0
0
D
13.03.26
Lig
Libertad
Tecnico Universitario
1
2
L
28.02.26
Lig
Libertad
Leones del Norte
1
1
D
H2H away: Libertad
10.05.26
H2H
Emelec
Libertad
1
1
D
12.04.25
H2H
Emelec
Libertad
1
1
D
01.06.24
H2H
Emelec
Libertad
0
0
D
27.02.23
H2H
Emelec
Libertad
2
0
L

Standings

Liga Pro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 21 17 1 3 52:20 32 52
W W W W W
2 21 10 5 6 33:19 14 35
W W W L L
3 21 10 5 6 23:21 2 35
L W L W W
4 21 9 7 5 23:16 7 34
L W D D W
5 21 9 5 7 24:21 3 32
W L W W W
6 21 8 5 8 20:17 3 29
D L L D L
7 21 7 7 7 22:21 1 28
D W D W W
8 21 8 4 9 19:26 -7 28
L L D L L
9 21 7 6 8 19:23 -4 27
D W D W L
10 21 7 5 9 25:29 -4 26
W L L D L
11 21 6 7 8 27:31 -4 25
D W L L W
12 21 7 7 7 18:24 -6 25
D L W D D
13 21 6 6 9 19:26 -7 24
W L W D L
14 21 7 2 12 19:24 -5 23
L L L L W
15 21 6 5 10 13:20 -7 23
L W W L D
16 21 3 5 13 8:26 -18 14
D L L D L
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs