ECUADOR LIGA PRO
20.09.2026 00:00
Estadio George Capwell
Referee: K. Poveda
Emelec
Match Timeline
Libertad
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
6'
O. Quinonez
Libertad
🟨
20'
O. Herrera
Emelec
🟨
23'
B. Caicedo
Libertad
🟨
23'
A. Leguizamon
Emelec
23'
R. Saya · Assist: T. Arce
Emelec
🟨
32'
E. Medran
Emelec
🔄
46'
O. Quinonez ↔ C. Gruezo
Libertad
🔄
46'
C. Valencia ↔ J. Bravo
Libertad
🔄
46'
T. Arce ↔ L. Fragozo
Emelec
61'
J. Bravo · Assist: G. J. Cortez Casierra
Libertad
🔄
62'
O. Herrera ↔ L. Gomez
Emelec
🔄
73'
A. Chere ↔ E. Caicedo
Libertad
🔄
73'
V. Branda ↔ H. Batalla
Libertad
🔄
75'
J. Ruiz ↔ G. Napoli
Emelec
🔄
75'
E. Segura ↔ S. Valencia
Emelec
🔄
78'
G. J. Cortez Casierra ↔ C. Orejuela
Libertad
🔄
82'
R. Saya ↔ J. Ayovi
Emelec
🟨
88'
A. Leguizamon
Emelec
🟥
88'
A. Leguizamon
Emelec
90'
B. Caicedo · Assist: C. Orejuela
Libertad
🟨
90+4'
E. Caicedo
Libertad
🟨
90+5'
R. Morinigo
Libertad

Emelec vs Libertad Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 91.6%
Odds 1.28
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds 2.10
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 58.1%
Odds 1.67
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
91.6%
1.28
BTTS Yes
62.8%
2.10
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
58.1%
1.67
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
82.4%
1.18
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
10.00
Correct Score 0-1
-
12.00
Probability Distribution
Emelec Win 47.5%
Draw 8.4%
Libertad Win 44.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Emelec0.95
Libertad1.11
Recent Form (Last 5)
Emelec Emelec
WWDLW
25 GF / 34 GA
Libertad Libertad
WLDWL
33 GF / 34 GA
Key Stats
0.83
Average Goals Scored
1.1
1.13
Average Goals Conceded
1.13
12
BTTS Yes
14
6
Over 2.5
13
3.33
Shots on Goal
3.9

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Emelec Emelec 30 matches
Libertad Libertad 30 matches
Emelec Statistic Libertad
10 Wins 11
9 Draws 8
11 Losses 11
25 Goals For 33
34 Goals Against 34
0.83 Avg Goals Scored 1.1
1.13 Avg Goals Conceded 1.13
12 BTTS Yes 14
21 Over 1.5 18
6 Over 2.5 13
2 Over 3.5 6
10 Clean Sheets 10
11 Failed To Score 9
3.33 Shots On Goal 3.9
10.67 Total Shots 11.3
4.27 Corners 3.63
44.5% Ball Possession 44.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Libertad. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Emelec expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Libertad in 5-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Libertad having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Emelec Analysis

Emelec are currently 11 in the standings with 36 points from 30 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 10 wins, 9 draws, and 11 losses, while the 25:34 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on L. Klimowicz (6 goals), J. Ruíz (3 goals), Ignacio Guerrico (2 goals), with creative support from Luis Fragozo (3 assists), F. Pizzini (3 assists), A. Mina (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, the record of 8 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Libertad Analysis

So far, Libertad have built a campaign that leaves them 7 in the table on 41 points from 30 matches. The record of 11 wins, 8 draws, and 11 defeats, together with a 33:34 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Vilinton Germán Branda Merlín (7 goals), G. Cortéz (5 goals), A. Chére (5 goals), with creative support from G. Cortéz (4 assists), A. Chére (2 assists), I. Zambrano (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Emelec won 1 times, Libertad won 1 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:6 from Emelec's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.4 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91.6%)
Predicted formations: Emelec 4-2-3-1 / Libertad 5-4-1
H2H summary: Emelec wins 1, draws 3, Libertad wins 1

Standings

Liga Pro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 24 2 4 73:33 40 74
W W L D W
2 30 14 9 7 51:27 24 51
W W D D W
3 30 15 6 9 41:33 8 51
W W L W W
4 30 14 8 8 33:28 5 50
L D D D W
5 30 13 7 10 31:24 7 46
D W D L W
6 30 11 11 8 32:25 7 44
D D W L W
7 30 11 8 11 33:34 -1 41
W L W D L
8 30 10 9 11 31:32 -1 39
D L D W L
9 30 10 9 11 33:36 -3 39
D W L L W
10 30 9 11 10 35:38 -3 38
L D D W D
11 30 10 9 11 25:34 -9 36
L L W D W
12 30 10 6 14 25:37 -12 36
D L W L D
13 30 9 6 15 36:47 -11 33
L W L L L
14 30 10 2 18 28:42 -14 32
W L L W L
15 30 7 7 16 19:31 -12 28
D L W L L
16 30 5 6 19 17:42 -25 21
D L L W L
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs