ECUADOR LIGA PRO
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Estadio George Capwell
Referee: Y. Zambrano

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 61.9%
Odds 4.62
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds 2.20
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds 2.39
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
61.9%
4.62
BTTS Yes
67.1%
2.20
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
2.39
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
88.6%
1.83
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
9.00
Correct Score 1-2
-
17.00
Probability Distribution
Emelec Win 33.9%
Draw 4.2%
Leones del Norte Win 61.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Emelec0.92
Leones del Norte1.12
Recent Form (Last 5)
Emelec Emelec
WWDLW
21 GF / 31 GA
Leones del Norte Leones del Norte
WLDWL
28 GF / 28 GA
Key Stats
0.81
Average Goals Scored
1.08
1.19
Average Goals Conceded
1.08
10
BTTS Yes
12
5
Over 2.5
9
3.19
Shots on Goal
3.81

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Emelec Emelec 26 matches
Leones del Norte Leones del Norte 26 matches
Emelec Statistic Leones del Norte
8 Wins 9
8 Draws 8
10 Losses 9
21 Goals For 28
31 Goals Against 28
0.81 Avg Goals Scored 1.08
1.19 Avg Goals Conceded 1.08
10 BTTS Yes 12
19 Over 1.5 19
5 Over 2.5 9
2 Over 3.5 3
9 Clean Sheets 9
10 Failed To Score 7
3.19 Shots On Goal 3.81
10.38 Total Shots 12.15
4.23 Corners 4.08
43.4% Ball Possession 46.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Leones del Norte. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Emelec Analysis

So far, Emelec have built a campaign that leaves them 13 in the table on 29 points from 25 matches. The record of 8 wins, 8 draws, and 9 defeats, together with a 21:29 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Luca Klimowicz (6 goals), Ignacio Guerrico (2 goals), Juan Ruiz Gómez (2 goals), with creative support from Francisco Pizzini (3 assists), Luis Fragozo (2 assists), Angelo Mina (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, their split return of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Leones del Norte Analysis

So far, Leones del Norte have built a campaign that leaves them 7 in the table on 35 points from 26 matches. Their overall return of 9 wins, 8 draws, and 9 losses with goals at 28:28 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Juan Anangonó (5 goals), Darío Pazmiño (3 goals), Emiliano Griffa (3 goals), with creative support from Jonathan Arroyo (3 assists), Darío Pazmiño (2 assists), Elián Pepinós (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Emelec won 0 times, Leones del Norte won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 0:2 from Emelec's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 1 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.8%)
Predicted formations: Emelec 4-2-3-1 / Leones del Norte 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Emelec wins 0, draws 1, Leones del Norte wins 1
Last matches: Emelec
24.08.26
Lig
Emelec
LDU de Quito
0
2
L
16.08.26
Lig
Emelec
Tecnico Universitario
2
1
W
10.08.26
Lig
Emelec
Guayaquil City FC
0
0
D
02.08.26
Lig
Emelec
Aucas
0
2
L
28.07.26
Lig
Emelec
Deportivo Cuenca
1
2
L
24.07.26
Lig
Emelec
Mushuc Runa SC
1
1
D
20.07.26
Lig
Emelec
Independiente del Valle
1
6
L
17.07.26
Lig
Emelec
Orense SC
2
0
W
12.07.26
Lig
Emelec
Barcelona SC
0
0
D
05.07.26
Lig
Emelec
Delfin SC
1
1
D
31.05.26
Lig
Emelec
Universidad Catolica
1
0
W
24.05.26
Lig
Emelec
Macara
2
0
W
17.05.26
Lig
Emelec
Manta FC
0
0
D
10.05.26
Lig
Emelec
Libertad
1
1
D
03.05.26
Lig
Emelec
Leones del Norte
0
2
L
25.04.26
Lig
Emelec
LDU de Quito
1
0
W
22.04.26
Lig
Emelec
Tecnico Universitario
1
0
W
18.04.26
Lig
Emelec
Guayaquil City FC
1
3
L
12.04.26
Lig
Emelec
Aucas
0
2
L
09.04.26
Lig
Emelec
Universidad Catolica
1
1
D
Last matches: Leones del Norte
22.08.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Independiente del Valle
2
3
L
15.08.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Manta FC
2
0
W
08.08.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Aucas
0
3
L
02.08.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Barcelona SC
1
1
D
26.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Delfin SC
1
0
W
23.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Guayaquil City FC
1
1
D
18.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
LDU de Quito
1
0
W
15.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Deportivo Cuenca
1
1
D
10.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Universidad Catolica
1
0
W
04.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Libertad
3
1
W
01.06.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Macara
1
1
D
24.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Tecnico Universitario
1
2
L
17.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Mushuc Runa SC
3
1
W
09.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Orense SC
0
2
L
03.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Emelec
2
0
W
25.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Independiente del Valle
1
2
L
22.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Manta FC
3
0
W
17.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Aucas
0
1
L
11.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Barcelona SC
1
2
L
05.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Delfin SC
1
0
W
H2H: Emelec vs Leones del Norte
03.05.26
H2H
Leones del Norte
Emelec
2
0
L
08.10.25
H2H
Leones del Norte
Emelec
0
0
D
Last matches: Emelec
16.08.26
Lig
Emelec
Tecnico Universitario
2
1
W
02.08.26
Lig
Emelec
Aucas
0
2
L
24.07.26
Lig
Emelec
Mushuc Runa SC
1
1
D
12.07.26
Lig
Emelec
Barcelona SC
0
0
D
31.05.26
Lig
Emelec
Universidad Catolica
1
0
W
24.05.26
Lig
Emelec
Macara
2
0
W
10.05.26
Lig
Emelec
Libertad
1
1
D
25.04.26
Lig
Emelec
LDU de Quito
1
0
W
18.04.26
Lig
Emelec
Guayaquil City FC
1
3
L
05.04.26
Lig
Emelec
Deportivo Cuenca
0
2
L
20.03.26
Lig
Emelec
Independiente del Valle
2
0
W
15.03.26
Lig
Emelec
Orense SC
2
1
W
01.03.26
Lig
Emelec
Delfin SC
1
1
D
Last matches: Leones del Norte
15.08.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Manta FC
2
0
W
08.08.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Aucas
0
3
L
26.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Delfin SC
1
0
W
18.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
LDU de Quito
1
0
W
04.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Libertad
3
1
W
24.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Tecnico Universitario
1
2
L
09.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Orense SC
0
2
L
25.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Independiente del Valle
1
2
L
11.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Barcelona SC
1
2
L
23.03.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Guayaquil City FC
0
0
D
14.03.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Deportivo Cuenca
1
1
D
08.03.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Universidad Catolica
0
3
L
22.02.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Macara
0
0
D
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 4.62
Draw 3.27
Home 1.83
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.38
Draw 2.06
Home 2.48
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.45
Over 1.75 1.57
Over 2.0 1.79
Over 2.25 2.09
Over 2.5 2.39
Over 3.5 4.48
Under 1.5 2.68
Under 1.75 2.35
Under 2.0 2.01
Under 2.25 1.71
Under 2.5 1.55
Under 3.5 1.18
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 4.50
Draw 3.10
Home 1.83
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.00
Draw 2.00
Home 2.60
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.50
Draw 2.25
Home 2.25
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.10
Over 1.5 1.44
Over 2.5 2.40
Over 3.5 4.50
Over 4.5 11.00
Over 5.5 23.00
Over 6.5 51.00
Under 0.5 7.00
Under 1.5 2.62
Under 2.5 1.53
Under 3.5 1.18
Under 4.5 1.05
Under 5.5 1.01
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 4.56
Draw 3.21
Home 1.86
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.30
Draw 1.90
Home 2.49
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.55
Draw 2.26
Home 2.20
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.04
Over 0.75 1.06
Over 1.0 1.09
Over 1.25 1.26
Over 1.5 1.41
Over 1.75 1.57
Over 2.0 1.74
Over 2.25 2.03
Over 2.5 2.36
Over 2.75 2.73
Over 3.0 3.57
Over 3.25 3.92
Over 3.5 4.34
Over 3.75 5.45
Over 4.0 8.15
Over 4.5 8.60
Over 5.5 19.00
Over 6.5 50.00
Under 0.5 6.75
Under 0.75 6.15
Under 1.0 5.48
Under 1.25 3.32
Under 1.5 2.59
Under 1.75 2.31
Under 2.0 1.96
Under 2.25 1.69
Under 2.5 1.55
Under 2.75 1.37
Under 3.0 1.24
Under 3.25 1.18
Under 3.5 1.16
Under 3.75 1.08
Under 4.0 1.02
Under 4.5 1.01
Under 5.5 1.01
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 4.25
Draw 3.30
Home 1.88
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.80
Draw 2.07
Home 2.50
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.10
Draw 2.35
Home 2.28
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.07
Over 1.5 1.40
Over 2.0 1.68
Over 2.5 2.25
Over 3.5 4.10
Under 0.5 6.50
Under 1.5 2.65
Under 2.0 2.00
Under 2.5 1.55
Under 3.5 1.18

Standings

Liga Pro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 22 1 3 64:26 38 67
W W W W W
2 26 13 5 8 30:26 4 44
W L W W L
3 26 12 7 7 45:23 22 43
W D L W D
4 26 12 6 8 33:26 7 42
L D W W W
5 26 12 5 9 26:20 6 41
W W L W W
6 26 10 9 7 28:20 8 39
W D L D L
7 26 10 7 9 29:29 0 37
W D W W W
8 27 9 9 9 33:34 -1 36
W D D W W
9 26 9 8 9 28:28 0 35
L W L D W
10 26 8 9 9 25:29 -4 33
W D D L D
11 27 9 5 13 23:35 -12 32
L D L L L
12 26 8 6 12 30:39 -9 30
L W D L L
13 26 8 8 10 21:31 -10 29
L W D L L
14 27 9 2 16 26:38 -12 29
W L L L L
15 27 6 6 15 17:29 -12 24
L L L D L
16 26 4 5 17 12:37 -25 17
L L W L L
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs