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25.10.2026 19:00
Estadio Banco del Pacífico Capwell
Referee: Robert Cabrera
Emelec
Match Timeline
Guayaquil City FC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
3'
Janvier Yardely Rodríguez López
Guayaquil City FC
🟨
21'
Jefferson Valverde
Emelec
🟨
37'
Angelo Mina
Emelec
⚽
45+2'
Diego Dorregaray · Assist: Edinson Mero
Guayaquil City FC
🔄
45'
Janvier Yardely Rodríguez López ↔ Joshue·Quinonez
Guayaquil City FC
🔄
45'
Angelo Mina ↔ Jose Francisco Cevallos
Emelec
🔄
45'
Francisco Pizzini ↔ Teodoro Arce
Emelec
🔄
45'
Juan Pablo·Ruiz Gomez ↔ luis Fragozo
Emelec
🔄
54'
Pablo Mancilla ↔ S Laurino
Guayaquil City FC
🟨
59'
Aníbal Leguizamón
Emelec
VAR
62'
Orlando Herrera
Emelec
🔄
72'
Diego Dorregaray ↔ Miller Bolaños
Guayaquil City FC
🔄
72'
R. Arias ↔ Jonathan Miller Ordóñez Cruz
Guayaquil City FC
🔄
79'
Ignacio Guerrico ↔ Ariel Mina
Emelec
🔄
79'
Jefferson Valverde ↔ Luca Klimowicz
Emelec
🟨
81'
Pool Geovanny Gavilánez Solís
Guayaquil City FC
🔄
82'
Junior Ayovi ↔ Esnaider Cabezas
Guayaquil City FC
🟨
90+5'
Romario Caicedo
Guayaquil City FC
🟨
90+6'
Gilmar Napa
Guayaquil City FC

Emelec vs Guayaquil City FC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 56.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
56.4%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
82.2%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Emelec Win 56.4%
Draw 18.5%
Guayaquil City FC Win 25.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Emelec1.09
Guayaquil City FC1.15
Recent Form (Last 5)
Emelec Emelec
W L L L W
7 GF / 7 GA
Guayaquil City FC Guayaquil City FC
L W D W L
10 GF / 12 GA
Key Stats
0.94
Average Goals Scored
1.11
1.21
Average Goals Conceded
1.31
15
BTTS Yes
19
9
Over 2.5
16
3.58
Shots on Goal
3.42

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Emelec Emelec 33 matches
Guayaquil City FC Guayaquil City FC 36 matches
Emelec Statistic Guayaquil City FC
11 Wins 12
9 Draws 10
13 Losses 14
31 Goals For 40
40 Goals Against 47
0.94 Avg Goals Scored 1.11
1.21 Avg Goals Conceded 1.31
15 BTTS Yes 19
24 Over 1.5 21
9 Over 2.5 16
4 Over 3.5 10
10 Clean Sheets 9
11 Failed To Score 12
3.58 Shots On Goal 3.42
12.09 Total Shots 8.85
4.61 Corners 3
47.8% Ball Possession 53.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Emelec expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Guayaquil City FC in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Guayaquil City FC having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Guayaquil City FC. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Emelec Analysis

So far, Emelec have built a campaign that leaves them 10 in the table on 39 points from 30 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 10 wins, 9 draws, and 11 losses, while the 25:34 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on L. Klimowicz (6 goals), J. Ruíz (3 goals), I. Guerrico (2 goals), with creative support from Luis Fragozo (3 assists), F. Pizzini (3 assists), A. Mina (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, the record of 8 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Guayaquil City FC Analysis

Guayaquil City FC sit 9 with 39 points after 30 league matches. The record of 10 wins, 9 draws, and 11 defeats, together with a 33:36 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through E. Mero (11 goals), D. Dorregaray (8 goals), D. Díaz (4 goals), with creative support from J. Ayovi (5 assists), E. Mero (3 assists), D. Díaz (3 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 8 losses fits a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Emelec won 0 times, Guayaquil City FC won 2 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:6 from Emelec's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 1.8 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (81.5%)
Predicted formations: Emelec 4-4-2 / Guayaquil City FC 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Emelec wins 0, draws 3, Guayaquil City FC wins 2

Standings

Liga Pro: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 24 2 4 73:33 40 74
W W L D W
2 30 14 9 7 51:27 24 51
W W D D W
3 30 15 6 9 41:33 8 51
W L W W L
4 30 14 8 8 33:28 5 50
D D D W W
5 30 13 7 10 31:24 7 46
D W D L W
6 30 11 11 8 32:25 7 44
D D W L W
7 30 11 8 11 33:34 -1 41
L W D L W
8 30 10 9 11 31:32 -1 39
L D W L L
9 30 10 9 11 33:36 -3 39
W L L W W
10 30 10 9 11 25:34 -9 39
L W D W L
11 30 9 11 10 35:38 -3 38
L D D W D
12 30 10 6 14 25:37 -12 36
D L W L D
13 30 9 6 15 36:47 -11 33
L W L L L
14 30 10 2 18 28:42 -14 32
W L L W L
15 30 7 7 16 19:31 -12 28
D L W L L
16 30 5 6 19 17:42 -25 21
D L L W L
Promotion - Liga Pro (Championship Group)
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