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02.10.2026 18:30
Estadio Nuevo Pepico Amat
Referee: Rafael Sanchez Lopez, Spain
Eldense
Match Timeline
Oviedo
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
1'
A. Reina · Assist: D. Jimenez
Oviedo
🟨
22'
Samu Rodríguez
Oviedo
🟨
40'
David Jiménez
Oviedo
🟨
43'
Álex Serradell
Eldense
🔄
46'
I. Recio ↔ J. Larios
Eldense
🔄
46'
G. Macho ↔ R. Lopez
Eldense
🟨
50'
Juan Larios
Eldense
⚽
56'
R. Lopez
Eldense
🔄
64'
S. Rodriguez ↔ J. Cruz
Oviedo
🔄
65'
↔ A. Olabarrieta
Eldense
🔄
65'
D. Jimenez ↔ A. Ahmed
Oviedo
🔄
65'
D. Villahermosa ↔ E. Perez
Oviedo
🟨
67'
Pablo Sáenz
Oviedo
⚽
68'
Fidel
Eldense
🟨
71'
Carlos Domínguez
Oviedo
🔄
71'
Fidel ↔ M. Bustillo
Eldense
🔄
73'
Y. Lachhab ↔ V. Mingo
Oviedo
🔄
76'
W. Rubio ↔ J. Rastrojo
Eldense
🔄
83'
↔ N. Vidal
Oviedo
⚽
90'
A. Olabarrieta · Assist: M. Bustillo
Eldense
⚽
90'
J. Rastrojo
Eldense

Eldense vs Oviedo Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 67.2%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 50.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 58.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
67.2%
- ▥
BTTS No
50.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
58.5%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Eldense Win 32.8%
Draw 23.1%
Oviedo Win 44.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Eldense0.73
Oviedo1.4
Recent Form (Last 5)
Eldense Eldense
L L W D L
2 GF / 4 GA
Oviedo Oviedo
W L W D W
7 GF / 3 GA
Key Stats
0.77
Average Goals Scored
1.25
1.62
Average Goals Conceded
0.67
6
BTTS Yes
3
8
Over 2.5
5
4
Shots on Goal
4.14

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Eldense Eldense 13 matches
Oviedo Oviedo 12 matches
Eldense Statistic Oviedo
2 Wins 5
2 Draws 4
9 Losses 3
10 Goals For 15
21 Goals Against 8
0.77 Avg Goals Scored 1.25
1.62 Avg Goals Conceded 0.67
6 BTTS Yes 3
8 Over 1.5 6
8 Over 2.5 5
3 Over 3.5 3
2 Clean Sheets 8
6 Failed To Score 5
4 Shots On Goal 4.14
12.57 Total Shots 14.29
6.57 Corners 5
49.1% Ball Possession 51%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between Oviedo's more proactive style and Eldense's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Oviedo. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Eldense Analysis

Eldense approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 17 with 5 points from 6 matches. Across the season they have posted 1 wins, 2 draws, and 3 defeats, and the 4:8 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on J. Smith (1 goals), Javi Martínez (1 goals), with creative support from Jorge Rastrojo (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 0 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Oviedo Analysis

So far, Oviedo have built a campaign that leaves them 13 in the table on 8 points from 6 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, while the 5:4 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Dani Calvo (1 goals), Alberto Reina (1 goals), Pablo Sáenz (1 goals), with creative support from Enzo Perez (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Eldense won 0 times, Oviedo won 1 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:5 from Eldense's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (76.9%)
Predicted formations: Eldense 4-2-3-1 / Oviedo 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Eldense wins 0, draws 3, Oviedo wins 1

Standings

Segunda
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 11 8 2 1 22:4 18 26
W W L D W
2 11 8 1 2 22:9 13 25
D W W W W
3 11 7 1 3 20:13 7 22
L D L W W
4 11 6 3 2 22:10 12 21
W W D D W
5 11 6 2 3 18:14 4 20
W W W W L
6 11 6 2 3 16:12 4 20
W W L L W
7 11 5 4 2 13:6 7 19
D D W D L
8 11 6 1 4 11:13 -2 19
L W W W L
9 11 5 3 3 15:12 3 18
D W W L W
10 11 4 5 2 11:9 2 17
D L W D D
11 11 5 0 6 17:20 -3 15
W W L W L
12 11 3 5 3 13:15 -2 14
D D D L D
13 11 4 2 5 13:15 -2 14
L W W W L
14 11 4 2 5 14:19 -5 14
W L L D L
15 11 3 3 5 16:16 0 12
L L W D W
16 11 3 3 5 16:21 -5 12
L D W L D
17 11 3 3 5 7:16 -9 12
D L L L L
18 11 2 4 5 14:14 0 10
W L L W D
19 11 3 1 7 15:20 -5 10
L L W D W
20 11 2 2 7 14:22 -8 8
L L L L L
21 11 1 2 8 10:25 -15 5
L L L D W
22 11 1 1 9 8:22 -14 4
W L L L L
Promotion - LaLiga
Promotion - LaLiga2 (Promotion - Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Relegation