RUSSIA › PREMIER LEAGUE
11.05.2026 17:00
VTB Arena
Referee: I. Tanashev
Dynamo
Match Timeline
FC Krasnodar
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
30'
Konstantin Tyukavin
Dynamo
⚽
32'
Diego Costa · Assist: E. Spertsyan
FC Krasnodar
⚽
48'
K. Tyukavin · Assist: J. Caceres
Dynamo
🔄
59'
Arthur Gomes ↔ A. Miranchuk
Dynamo
🔄
59'
A. Chernikov ↔ Douglas Augusto
FC Krasnodar
🔄
60'
Bitello ↔ U. Babaev
Dynamo
🔄
64'
Joao Batxi ↔ J. Boselli
FC Krasnodar
🔄
70'
K. Tyukavin ↔ I. Sergeev
Dynamo
🔄
83'
D. Glebov ↔ L. Chavez
Dynamo
🔄
83'
N. Moumi Ngamaleu ↔ Y. Gladyshev
Dynamo
🔄
83'
E. Spertsyan ↔ Jubal Junior
FC Krasnodar
🟨
86'
Ivan Sergeev
Dynamo
🟨
90+3'
Maksim Osipenko
Dynamo
🟨
90+1'
Jhon Córdoba
FC Krasnodar
⚽
90'
I. Sergeev · Assist: Y. Gladyshev
Dynamo

Dynamo vs FC Krasnodar Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 58.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 74.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 40.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
58.9%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
74.9%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
40.9%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Dynamo Win 32.6%
Draw 8.4%
FC Krasnodar Win 58.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Dynamo1.31
FC Krasnodar1.74
Recent Form (Last 5)
Dynamo Dynamo
WWDLW
47 GF / 38 GA
FC Krasnodar FC Krasnodar
WLDWL
56 GF / 21 GA
Key Stats
1.68
Average Goals Scored
2
1.36
Average Goals Conceded
0.75
18
BTTS Yes
15
16
Over 2.5
15
4.75
Shots on Goal
4.82

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Dynamo Dynamo 28 matches
FC Krasnodar FC Krasnodar 28 matches
Dynamo Statistic FC Krasnodar
10 Wins 19
9 Draws 6
9 Losses 3
47 Goals For 56
38 Goals Against 21
1.68 Avg Goals Scored 2
1.36 Avg Goals Conceded 0.75
18 BTTS Yes 15
22 Over 1.5 22
16 Over 2.5 15
11 Over 3.5 6
7 Clean Sheets 12
4 Failed To Score 2
4.75 Shots On Goal 4.82
15.54 Total Shots 15.54
5.57 Corners 5.14
55% Ball Possession 59.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. FC Krasnodar seem to carry the heavier availability burden, which may reduce some of their stability compared to the home side. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. FC Krasnodar carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 63 points while Dynamo sit 8 on 39, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring FC Krasnodar.

Dynamo Analysis

From their first 28 matches, Dynamo have collected 39 points and now occupy 8 place in the table. Their overall return of 10 wins, 9 draws, and 9 losses with goals at 47:38 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by I. Sergeev (8 goals), Bitello (7 goals), K. Tyukavin (7 goals), with creative support from Bitello (8 assists), J. Caceres (5 assists), K. Tyukavin (4 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, the record of 5 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with B. Zaynutdinov, Rubens unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

FC Krasnodar Analysis

FC Krasnodar come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 2 place with 63 points after 28 matches. With 19 wins, 6 draws, and 3 defeats plus a goal balance of 56:21, they continue to show good form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking quality is driven by J. Cordoba (16 goals), E. Spertsyan (12 goals), Nikita Krivtsov (7 goals), with creative support from E. Spertsyan (15 assists), J. Cordoba (5 assists), Joao Batxi (4 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their record of 8 wins, 5 draws, and 1 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with A. Koksharov, V. Stezhko, G. Gonzalez unavailable.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Dynamo won 3 times, FC Krasnodar won 8 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:19 from Dynamo's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 1.87 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91.6%)
Predicted formations: Dynamo 4-2-3-1 / FC Krasnodar 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Dynamo 2, FC Krasnodar 4
H2H summary: Dynamo wins 3, draws 4, FC Krasnodar wins 8

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 20 8 2 53:19 34 68
W W W W D
2 30 20 6 4 60:23 37 66
W L W W W
3 30 14 11 5 54:39 15 53
L W D L D
4 30 15 7 8 47:39 8 52
D W L W L
5 30 15 6 9 44:33 11 51
W W L D D
6 30 11 13 6 38:21 17 46
L L L L D
7 30 12 9 9 51:40 11 45
W W D W L
8 30 11 10 9 29:30 -1 43
D L W D W
9 30 9 10 11 35:39 -4 37
D D W L D
10 30 8 9 13 25:32 -7 33
L W W L D
11 30 8 8 14 35:50 -15 32
W L W W L
12 30 7 8 15 29:44 -15 29
L W L W W
13 30 6 9 15 35:53 -18 27
L W L L L
14 30 5 11 14 19:37 -18 26
W W D D L
15 30 6 5 19 26:50 -24 23
D L L L L
16 30 6 4 20 29:60 -31 22
D L W L W
Relegation Playoffs
Relegation