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19.09.2026 14:00
Dens Park
Referee: R. Hardie
Dundee
Match Timeline
Motherwell
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
VAR
22'
Joe Westley
Dundee
⚽
23'
J. Westley
Dundee
⚽
40'
B. Fink · Assist: R. Astley
Dundee
⚽
45'
A. Lowry · Assist: T. Sparrow
Motherwell
🔄
61'
J. Moorhouse ↔ J. Bevan
Dundee
🔄
65'
E. Longelo ↔ D. Williams
Motherwell
🟨
67'
Dylan Williams
Motherwell
🔄
71'
C. Jones ↔ B. Halliday
Dundee
🔄
72'
B. Fink ↔ B. Wales
Dundee
🔄
76'
S. Palmer-Houlden ↔ R. Charles-Cook
Motherwell
🔄
77'
I. Said ↔ J. Kanga
Motherwell
🔄
86'
J. Westley ↔ I. Odutayo
Dundee
🔄
86'
T. Maswanhise ↔ W. Vogt
Motherwell
🔄
86'
A. Lowry ↔ E. Bjorgolfsson
Motherwell
🟨
90+3'
Owen Goodman
Dundee

Dundee vs Motherwell Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 71%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
71%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
78.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
80.2%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Dundee Win 29%
Draw 30.6%
Motherwell Win 40.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Dundee1.32
Motherwell1.48
Recent Form (Last 5)
Dundee Dundee
L D L W W
7 GF / 5 GA
Motherwell Motherwell
L L W D L
7 GF / 12 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
1.5
1.45
Average Goals Conceded
1.79
6
BTTS Yes
6
5
Over 2.5
9
3.33
Shots on Goal
3.08

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Dundee Dundee 11 matches
Motherwell Motherwell 14 matches
Dundee Statistic Motherwell
3 Wins 5
2 Draws 3
6 Losses 6
11 Goals For 21
16 Goals Against 25
1 Avg Goals Scored 1.5
1.45 Avg Goals Conceded 1.79
6 BTTS Yes 6
10 Over 1.5 12
5 Over 2.5 9
1 Over 3.5 6
2 Clean Sheets 5
3 Failed To Score 4
3.33 Shots On Goal 3.08
11.33 Total Shots 7.75
3.67 Corners 3.25
38% Ball Possession 44.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Dundee expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Motherwell in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Motherwell having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Motherwell. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Dundee Analysis

Dundee sit 6 with 7 points after 6 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 2 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, while the 7:6 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on J. Westley (2 goals), W. Ferry (1 goals), J. Bevan (1 goals), with creative support from M. Merghem (2 assists), W. Ferry (1 assists), J. Bevan (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, their split return of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Motherwell Analysis

Placed 5 with 8 points from 5 outings, Motherwell continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses with goals at 8:5 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Tawanda Jethro Maswanhise (1 goals), A. Lowry (1 goals), L. Fadinger (1 goals), with creative support from Tawanda Jethro Maswanhise (2 assists), A. Lowry (1 assists), T. Sparrow (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Dundee won 5 times, Motherwell won 6 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:20 from Dundee's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.73 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (71%)
Predicted formations: Dundee 4-4-2 / Motherwell 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Dundee wins 5, draws 4, Motherwell wins 6

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 12 9 1 2 27:10 17 28
L D W W W
2 12 8 3 1 21:9 12 27
W D W D W
3 11 6 2 3 24:17 7 20
D W L W D
4 12 5 3 4 15:12 3 18
W W W W L
5 12 5 2 5 18:15 3 17
L W L D W
6 12 4 5 3 17:17 0 17
D D W D W
7 13 4 5 4 17:20 -3 17
W D D L D
8 13 4 2 7 12:22 -10 14
L L D W L
9 13 3 4 6 15:21 -6 13
D W D L L
10 12 3 2 7 15:17 -2 11
W D L L L
11 12 3 2 7 12:18 -6 11
L L L W L
12 12 2 3 7 13:28 -15 9
D L L W L
Promotion - Premiership (Championship Group)
Premiership (Relegation Group)