SCOTLAND PREMIERSHIP
--.--.---- --:--
Dens Park
Referee: C. Steven
Dundee
Match Timeline
Livingston
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
13'
C. Congreve · Assist: J. Westley
Dundee
🔄
64'
J. Nouble ↔ R. Muirhead
Livingston
🔄
68'
T. Yogane ↔ B. Koumetio
Dundee
🔄
68'
B. Halliday ↔ I. Samuels
Dundee
🔄
69'
S. Murray ↔ F. Robertson
Dundee
71'
F. Robertson
Dundee
🟨
79'
Brooklyn Kabongolo
Livingston
🔄
80'
C. Congreve ↔ S. Wright
Dundee
🔄
80'
J. Westley ↔ A. Hay
Dundee
🔄
80'
B. McKay ↔ S. May
Livingston
83'
A. Hay · Assist: F. Robertson
Dundee
🔄
86'
C. Kerr ↔ C. Montano
Livingston
🔄
86'
M. Sylla ↔ E. Danso
Livingston
🟨
90+2'
Billy Koumetio
Dundee

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 68.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 30.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 24.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
68.5%
-
BTTS BTTS No
30.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
24.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
85.1%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Dundee Win 68.5%
Draw 0%
Livingston Win 31.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Dundee1.38
Livingston1.31
Recent Form (Last 5)
Dundee Dundee
WWDLW
35 GF / 56 GA
Livingston Livingston
WLDWL
39 GF / 68 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
1.11
1.6
Average Goals Conceded
1.94
16
BTTS Yes
24
19
Over 2.5
22
3.2
Shots on Goal
3.31

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Dundee Dundee 35 matches
Livingston Livingston 35 matches
Dundee Statistic Livingston
9 Wins 2
9 Draws 14
17 Losses 19
35 Goals For 39
56 Goals Against 68
1 Avg Goals Scored 1.11
1.6 Avg Goals Conceded 1.94
16 BTTS Yes 24
24 Over 1.5 30
19 Over 2.5 22
11 Over 3.5 14
6 Clean Sheets 3
15 Failed To Score 10
3.2 Shots On Goal 3.31
9.91 Total Shots 9.71
3.77 Corners 4.51
43.2% Ball Possession 44.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Dundee expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Livingston in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Livingston having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Livingston. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Dundee have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors.

Dundee Analysis

Dundee approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 3 with 36 points from 35 matches. Across the season they have posted 9 wins, 9 draws, and 17 defeats, and the 35:56 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on A. Fatah (8 goals), Zachary Sapsford (8 goals), Simon Murray (7 goals), with creative support from C. Congreve (7 assists), W. Ferry (6 assists), L. Stephenson (5 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 7 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Livingston Analysis

So far, Livingston have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 20 points from 35 matches. Their overall return of 2 wins, 14 draws, and 19 losses with goals at 39:68 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by L. Smith (7 goals), Jeremy Bokila (5 goals), R. Muirhead (5 goals), with creative support from Cristian Montano (3 assists), M. Tait (3 assists), L. Smith (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 6 draws, and 11 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Dundee won 7 times, Livingston won 4 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:18 from Dundee's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.6 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Dundee 4-1-4-1 / Livingston 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Dundee wins 7, draws 4, Livingston wins 4

Standings

Premiership
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 33 21 7 5 58:28 30 70
L W D W W
2 33 19 12 2 66:31 35 69
W L L L L
3 33 21 4 8 59:35 24 67
W W W W W
4 33 14 12 7 52:29 23 54
W L D L W
5 33 13 12 8 51:37 14 51
L W W L L
6 33 13 7 13 45:48 -3 46
L L L W L
7 33 9 13 11 45:54 -9 40
D D L L W
8 33 9 6 18 33:48 -15 33
L L W D W
9 33 8 9 16 34:53 -19 33
W L W W L
10 33 7 9 17 27:48 -21 30
W D D W L
11 33 6 10 17 37:65 -28 28
W W W W L
12 33 1 13 19 35:66 -31 16
L D L D W
Championship round
Relegation Round