SCOTLAND › PREMIERSHIP
17.05.2026 13:00
Dens Park
Referee: R. Hardie
Dundee
Match Timeline
Aberdeen
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
10'
D. Wright · Assist: C. Reilly
Dundee
🔄
14'
M. Knoester ↔ N. Devlin
Aberdeen
⚽
23'
L. Morrison · Assist: L. Cameron
Aberdeen
⚽
45'
T. Olusanya
Aberdeen
⚽
61'
J. Westley
Dundee
🔄
68'
C. Reilly ↔ J. Bevan
Dundee
🔄
69'
L. Cameron ↔ K. Bilalovic
Aberdeen
🔄
69'
D. Geiger ↔ G. Shinnie
Aberdeen
🔄
69'
T. Keskinen ↔ N. Milanovic
Aberdeen
🔄
76'
K. Kjartansson ↔ A. Afeez
Aberdeen
🔄
77'
J. Westley ↔ S. Murray
Dundee
🔄
77'
E. Hamilton ↔ J. Cotterill
Dundee
🔄
77'
C. Congreve ↔ T. Yogane
Dundee
🔄
87'
I. Samuels ↔ L. Graham
Dundee
⚽
90'
R. Astley · Assist: F. Robertson
Dundee

Dundee vs Aberdeen Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 77.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 59.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 67.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
77.5%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
59.4%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
67.3%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
78.2%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Dundee Win 77.5%
Draw 9.2%
Aberdeen Win 13.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Dundee1.26
Aberdeen1.21
Recent Form (Last 5)
Dundee Dundee
WWDLW
39 GF / 59 GA
Aberdeen Aberdeen
WLDWL
43 GF / 71 GA
Key Stats
1.05
Average Goals Scored
0.96
1.59
Average Goals Conceded
1.58
17
BTTS Yes
16
21
Over 2.5
17
3.19
Shots on Goal
3.36

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Dundee Dundee 37 matches
Aberdeen Aberdeen 45 matches
Dundee Statistic Aberdeen
10 Wins 11
9 Draws 10
18 Losses 24
39 Goals For 43
59 Goals Against 71
1.05 Avg Goals Scored 0.96
1.59 Avg Goals Conceded 1.58
17 BTTS Yes 16
26 Over 1.5 33
21 Over 2.5 17
12 Over 3.5 11
7 Clean Sheets 11
15 Failed To Score 21
3.19 Shots On Goal 3.36
10 Total Shots 11.18
3.81 Corners 4.56
43.3% Ball Possession 46.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Dundee expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Aberdeen in 3-4-1-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Aberdeen having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Aberdeen.

Dundee Analysis

Dundee come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 3 with 39 points from 36 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 10 wins, 9 draws, and 17 losses, while the 38:56 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on A. Fatah (8 goals), Zachary Sapsford (8 goals), Simon Murray (7 goals), with creative support from C. Congreve (7 assists), W. Ferry (6 assists), L. Stephenson (5 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 8 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Aberdeen Analysis

Aberdeen come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 2 place with 40 points after 36 matches. With 11 wins, 7 draws, and 18 defeats plus a goal balance of 38:50, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by Kevin Nisbet (9 goals), J. Karlsson (5 goals), Marko Lazetić (4 goals), with creative support from Stuart Armstrong (5 assists), Topi Keskinen (3 assists), T. Olusanya (2 assists), and at the back they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, their record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 12 losses points to a weak split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Dundee won 4 times, Aberdeen won 8 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:28 from Dundee's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.8%)
Predicted formations: Dundee 4-2-3-1 / Aberdeen 3-4-1-2
H2H summary: Dundee wins 4, draws 3, Aberdeen wins 8

Standings

Premiership
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 33 21 7 5 58:28 30 70
L W D W W
2 33 19 12 2 66:31 35 69
W L L L L
3 33 21 4 8 59:35 24 67
W W W W W
4 33 14 12 7 52:29 23 54
W L D L W
5 33 13 12 8 51:37 14 51
L W W L L
6 33 13 7 13 45:48 -3 46
L L L W L
7 33 9 13 11 45:54 -9 40
D D L L W
8 33 9 6 18 33:48 -15 33
L L W D W
9 33 8 9 16 34:53 -19 33
W L W W L
10 33 7 9 17 27:48 -21 30
W D D W L
11 33 6 10 17 37:65 -28 28
W W W W L
12 33 1 13 19 35:66 -31 16
L D L D W
Championship round
Relegation Round