SCOTLAND PREMIERSHIP
--.--.---- --:--
Dens Park
Referee: R. Hardie
Dundee
Match Timeline
Aberdeen
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
10'
D. Wright · Assist: C. Reilly
Dundee
🔄
14'
M. Knoester ↔ N. Devlin
Aberdeen
23'
L. Morrison · Assist: L. Cameron
Aberdeen
45'
T. Olusanya
Aberdeen
61'
J. Westley
Dundee
🔄
68'
C. Reilly ↔ J. Bevan
Dundee
🔄
69'
L. Cameron ↔ K. Bilalovic
Aberdeen
🔄
69'
D. Geiger ↔ G. Shinnie
Aberdeen
🔄
69'
T. Keskinen ↔ N. Milanovic
Aberdeen
🔄
76'
K. Kjartansson ↔ A. Afeez
Aberdeen
🔄
77'
J. Westley ↔ S. Murray
Dundee
🔄
77'
E. Hamilton ↔ J. Cotterill
Dundee
🔄
77'
C. Congreve ↔ T. Yogane
Dundee
🔄
87'
I. Samuels ↔ L. Graham
Dundee
90'
R. Astley · Assist: F. Robertson
Dundee

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 77.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 59.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 67.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
77.5%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
59.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
67.3%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
78.2%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Dundee Win 77.5%
Draw 9.2%
Aberdeen Win 13.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Dundee1.26
Aberdeen1.21
Recent Form (Last 5)
Dundee Dundee
WWDLW
39 GF / 59 GA
Aberdeen Aberdeen
WLDWL
43 GF / 71 GA
Key Stats
1.05
Average Goals Scored
0.96
1.59
Average Goals Conceded
1.58
17
BTTS Yes
16
21
Over 2.5
17
3.19
Shots on Goal
3.36

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Dundee Dundee 37 matches
Aberdeen Aberdeen 45 matches
Dundee Statistic Aberdeen
10 Wins 11
9 Draws 10
18 Losses 24
39 Goals For 43
59 Goals Against 71
1.05 Avg Goals Scored 0.96
1.59 Avg Goals Conceded 1.58
17 BTTS Yes 16
26 Over 1.5 33
21 Over 2.5 17
12 Over 3.5 11
7 Clean Sheets 11
15 Failed To Score 21
3.19 Shots On Goal 3.36
10 Total Shots 11.18
3.81 Corners 4.56
43.3% Ball Possession 46.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Dundee expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Aberdeen in 3-4-1-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Aberdeen having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Aberdeen.

Dundee Analysis

Dundee come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 3 with 39 points from 36 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 10 wins, 9 draws, and 17 losses, while the 38:56 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on A. Fatah (8 goals), Zachary Sapsford (8 goals), Simon Murray (7 goals), with creative support from C. Congreve (7 assists), W. Ferry (6 assists), L. Stephenson (5 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 8 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Aberdeen Analysis

Aberdeen come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 2 place with 40 points after 36 matches. With 11 wins, 7 draws, and 18 defeats plus a goal balance of 38:50, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by Kevin Nisbet (9 goals), J. Karlsson (5 goals), Marko Lazetić (4 goals), with creative support from Stuart Armstrong (5 assists), Topi Keskinen (3 assists), T. Olusanya (2 assists), and at the back they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, their record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 12 losses points to a weak split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Dundee won 4 times, Aberdeen won 8 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:28 from Dundee's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 3.07 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.8%)
Predicted formations: Dundee 4-2-3-1 / Aberdeen 3-4-1-2
H2H summary: Dundee wins 4, draws 3, Aberdeen wins 8
Stats
Dundee Dundee
Aberdeen Aberdeen
Shots on Goal
6
Shots on Goal
2
Shots off Goal
2
Shots off Goal
4
Blocked Shots
3
Blocked Shots
3
7 Corner Kicks 2
14 Fouls 9
2 Offsides 1
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Goal 2
2 Shots off Goal 4
3 Blocked Shots 3
9 Shots insidebox 3
2 Shots outsidebox 6
0 Goalkeeper Saves 3
408 Total passes 317
306 Passes accurate 215
1.78 expected_goals 1.29
🟨 0 Yellow Cards 0 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Dundee
Formation
Aberdeen
K. O'Hara
K. O'Hara
D. Wright
D. Wright
R. Astley
R. Astley
B. Koumetio
B. Koumetio
I. Samuels
I. Samuels
C. Jones
C. Jones
E. Hamilton
E. Hamilton
C. Congreve
C. Congreve
F. Robertson
🎯
F. Robertson
C. Reilly
🎯
C. Reilly
J. Westley
J. Westley
N. Suman
N. Suman
J. Milne
J. Milne
L. Morrison
L. Morrison
M. Knoester
M. Knoester
G. Molloy
G. Molloy
T. Keskinen
T. Keskinen
K. Kjartansson
K. Kjartansson
L. Cameron
🎯
L. Cameron
D. Geiger
D. Geiger
K. Nisbet
K. Nisbet
T. Olusanya
T. Olusanya
Dundee 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
13
K. O'Hara
G
7
D. Wright
⚽ 10'
D
4
R. Astley
⚽ 90'
D
5
B. Koumetio
D
12
I. Samuels
↓ 87'
D
28
C. Jones
M
48
E. Hamilton
↓ 77'
M
20
C. Congreve
↓ 77'
M
10
F. Robertson
🎯 90'
18
C. Reilly
🎯 10' ↓ 68'
M
19
J. Westley
⚽ 61' ↓ 77'
F
Substitutes
30
H. Sharp
G
15
S. Murray
↑ 77'
F
24
J. Cotterill
↑ 77'
M
27
J. Bevan
↑ 68'
F
3
C. Robertson
D
16
B. Halliday
D
22
L. Graham
↑ 87'
D
11
A. Hay
17
T. Yogane
↑ 77'
M
Aberdeen 4-3-1-2
Starting XI
13
N. Suman
G
22
J. Milne
D
23
L. Morrison
⚽ 23'
D
5
M. Knoester
↓ 14'
D
21
G. Molloy
D
81
T. Keskinen
↓ 69'
M
29
K. Kjartansson
↓ 76'
M
25
L. Cameron
🎯 23' ↓ 69'
M
8
D. Geiger
↓ 69'
M
15
K. Nisbet
F
20
T. Olusanya
⚽ 45'
F
Substitutes
99
P. Bratveit
G
2
N. Devlin
↑ 14'
D
38
D. Lobban
M
14
K. Bilalovic
↑ 69'
M
46
J. Mercer
D
4
G. Shinnie
↑ 69'
M
32
A. Afeez
↑ 76'
M
11
N. Milanovic
↑ 69'
F
3
M. Frame
D
Last matches: Dundee
12.05.26
Pre
Dundee
Kilmarnock
1
3
L
09.05.26
Pre
Dundee
Livingston
3
0
W
02.05.26
Pre
Dundee
ST Mirren
1
0
W
26.04.26
Pre
Dundee
Dundee Utd
0
3
L
11.04.26
Pre
Dundee
Kilmarnock
2
2
D
05.04.26
Pre
Dundee
Celtic
1
2
L
21.03.26
Pre
Dundee
Heart Of Midlothian
0
1
L
15.03.26
Pre
Dundee
Dundee Utd
2
2
D
07.03.26
Pre
Dundee
Motherwell
2
1
W
28.02.26
Pre
Dundee
Hibernian
3
3
D
21.02.26
Pre
Dundee
Aberdeen
3
2
W
14.02.26
Pre
Dundee
Livingston
2
2
D
11.02.26
Pre
Dundee
Falkirk
0
1
L
31.01.26
Pre
Dundee
ST Mirren
0
0
D
25.01.26
Pre
Dundee
Rangers
0
3
L
11.01.26
Pre
Dundee
Heart Of Midlothian
0
1
L
03.01.26
Pre
Dundee
Dundee Utd
1
0
W
30.12.25
Pre
Dundee
Kilmarnock
2
1
W
27.12.25
Pre
Dundee
Falkirk
1
0
W
20.12.25
Pre
Dundee
Motherwell
0
1
L
Last matches: Aberdeen
12.05.26
Pre
Aberdeen
ST Mirren
0
2
L
09.05.26
Pre
Aberdeen
Dundee Utd
2
0
W
01.05.26
Pre
Aberdeen
Livingston
2
2
D
25.04.26
Pre
Aberdeen
Kilmarnock
1
0
W
11.04.26
Pre
Aberdeen
Hibernian
2
0
W
04.04.26
Pre
Aberdeen
ST Mirren
0
2
L
21.03.26
Pre
Aberdeen
Rangers
1
4
L
14.03.26
Pre
Aberdeen
Falkirk
1
1
D
04.03.26
Pre
Aberdeen
Celtic
1
2
L
28.02.26
Pre
Aberdeen
Heart Of Midlothian
0
1
L
24.02.26
Pre
Aberdeen
Dundee Utd
0
0
D
21.02.26
Pre
Aberdeen
Dundee
2
3
L
15.02.26
Pre
Aberdeen
Motherwell
0
2
L
31.01.26
Pre
Aberdeen
Kilmarnock
0
3
L
24.01.26
Pre
Aberdeen
Livingston
6
2
W
11.01.26
Pre
Aberdeen
Rangers
0
2
L
06.01.26
Pre
Aberdeen
Rangers
0
2
L
03.01.26
Pre
Aberdeen
Falkirk
0
1
L
30.12.25
Pre
Aberdeen
Hibernian
0
2
L
27.12.25
Pre
Aberdeen
Dundee Utd
1
1
D
H2H: Dundee vs Aberdeen
17.05.26
H2H
Dundee
Aberdeen
3
2
W
21.02.26
H2H
Aberdeen
Dundee
2
3
W
06.12.25
H2H
Dundee
Aberdeen
1
3
L
05.10.25
H2H
Aberdeen
Dundee
4
0
L
15.02.25
H2H
Dundee
Aberdeen
1
2
L
09.11.24
H2H
Aberdeen
Dundee
4
1
L
28.09.24
H2H
Dundee
Aberdeen
1
2
L
13.04.24
H2H
Aberdeen
Dundee
0
0
D
13.03.24
H2H
Dundee
Aberdeen
1
0
W
30.01.24
H2H
Aberdeen
Dundee
1
1
D
30.04.22
H2H
Aberdeen
Dundee
1
0
L
02.04.22
H2H
Dundee
Aberdeen
2
2
D
26.12.21
H2H
Aberdeen
Dundee
2
1
L
16.10.21
H2H
Dundee
Aberdeen
2
1
W
18.08.19
H2H
Dundee
Aberdeen
1
2
L
Last matches: Dundee
09.05.26
Pre
Dundee
Livingston
3
0
W
02.05.26
Pre
Dundee
ST Mirren
1
0
W
05.04.26
Pre
Dundee
Celtic
1
2
L
15.03.26
Pre
Dundee
Dundee Utd
2
2
D
07.03.26
Pre
Dundee
Motherwell
2
1
W
28.02.26
Pre
Dundee
Hibernian
3
3
D
14.02.26
Pre
Dundee
Livingston
2
2
D
11.01.26
Pre
Dundee
Heart Of Midlothian
0
1
L
30.12.25
Pre
Dundee
Kilmarnock
2
1
W
27.12.25
Pre
Dundee
Falkirk
1
0
W
06.12.25
Pre
Dundee
Aberdeen
1
3
L
29.11.25
Pre
Dundee
ST Mirren
3
1
W
09.11.25
Pre
Dundee
Rangers
0
3
L
19.10.25
Pre
Dundee
Celtic
2
0
W
20.09.25
Pre
Dundee
Livingston
3
2
W
13.09.25
Pre
Dundee
Motherwell
1
1
D
31.08.25
Pre
Dundee
Dundee Utd
0
2
L
03.08.25
Pre
Dundee
Hibernian
1
2
L
H2H at home: Dundee
17.05.26
H2H
Dundee
Aberdeen
3
2
W
06.12.25
H2H
Dundee
Aberdeen
1
3
L
15.02.25
H2H
Dundee
Aberdeen
1
2
L
28.09.24
H2H
Dundee
Aberdeen
1
2
L
13.03.24
H2H
Dundee
Aberdeen
1
0
W
02.04.22
H2H
Dundee
Aberdeen
2
2
D
16.10.21
H2H
Dundee
Aberdeen
2
1
W
18.08.19
H2H
Dundee
Aberdeen
1
2
L
Last matches: Aberdeen
01.05.26
Pre
Aberdeen
Livingston
2
2
D
04.04.26
Pre
Aberdeen
ST Mirren
0
2
L
21.03.26
Pre
Aberdeen
Rangers
1
4
L
28.02.26
Pre
Aberdeen
Heart Of Midlothian
0
1
L
24.02.26
Pre
Aberdeen
Dundee Utd
0
0
D
15.02.26
Pre
Aberdeen
Motherwell
0
2
L
31.01.26
Pre
Aberdeen
Kilmarnock
0
3
L
06.01.26
Pre
Aberdeen
Rangers
0
2
L
03.01.26
Pre
Aberdeen
Falkirk
0
1
L
30.12.25
Pre
Aberdeen
Hibernian
0
2
L
21.12.25
Pre
Aberdeen
Celtic
1
3
L
18.12.25
UEF
Aberdeen
Sparta Praha
0
3
L
06.12.25
Pre
Aberdeen
Dundee
3
1
W
30.11.25
Pre
Aberdeen
Livingston
1
0
W
06.11.25
UEF
Aberdeen
AEK Larnaca
0
0
D
29.10.25
Pre
Aberdeen
Kilmarnock
1
0
W
23.10.25
UEF
Aberdeen
AEK Athens FC
0
6
L
18.10.25
Pre
Aberdeen
ST Mirren
1
0
W
27.09.25
Pre
Aberdeen
Motherwell
0
2
L
23.09.25
Pre
Aberdeen
Dundee Utd
0
2
L
H2H away: Aberdeen
17.05.26
H2H
Dundee
Aberdeen
3
2
L
06.12.25
H2H
Dundee
Aberdeen
1
3
W
15.02.25
H2H
Dundee
Aberdeen
1
2
W
28.09.24
H2H
Dundee
Aberdeen
1
2
W
13.03.24
H2H
Dundee
Aberdeen
1
0
L
02.04.22
H2H
Dundee
Aberdeen
2
2
D
16.10.21
H2H
Dundee
Aberdeen
2
1
L
18.08.19
H2H
Dundee
Aberdeen
1
2
W

Standings

# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 26 4 8 73:41 32 82
W W W W W
1 38 10 15 13 49:60 -11 45
D D L L W
2 38 24 8 6 67:34 33 80
L W D W W
2 38 11 9 18 42:61 -19 42
W L W W L
3 38 20 12 6 76:43 33 72
W L L L L
3 38 11 7 20 40:55 -15 40
L L W D W
4 38 16 13 9 59:36 23 61
W L D L W
4 38 10 10 18 50:68 -18 40
W W W W L
5 38 15 12 11 58:44 14 57
L W W L L
5 38 8 10 20 30:55 -25 34
W D D W L
6 38 14 7 17 50:62 -12 49
L L L W L
6 38 2 15 21 40:75 -35 21
L D L D W