IRELAND PREMIER DIVISION
14.09.2026 18:45
Oriel Park
Dundalk
Match Timeline
St Patrick's Athl.
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
21'
Aidan Keena · Assist: Anthony Olusanya
St Patrick's Athl.
🟨
29'
Anthony Olusanya
St Patrick's Athl.
37'
Aidan Keena
St Patrick's Athl.
🔄
45'
Luke Mulligan ↔ John Ross Wilson
Dundalk
🔄
45'
Harry Groome ↔ shane tracey
Dundalk
🔄
55'
Cian dillon ↔ leonardo gaxha
Dundalk
🔄
58'
Barry Baggley ↔ Darragh Nugent
St Patrick's Athl.
🔄
58'
Zachary Elbouzedi ↔ James Brown
St Patrick's Athl.
🟨
69'
leonardo gaxha
Dundalk
🔄
69'
Aodh Dervin ↔ Harvey Warren
Dundalk
🔄
69'
Aidan Keena ↔ Ryan Edmondson
St Patrick's Athl.
75'
Ryan Sheridan · Assist: Anthony Olusanya
St Patrick's Athl.
🔄
76'
Trevor Clarke ↔ Declan McDaid
Dundalk
🔄
79'
Ryan Sheridan ↔ Christopher Forrester
St Patrick's Athl.
🔄
79'
Anthony Olusanya ↔ Romal Palmer
St Patrick's Athl.
82'
Ryan Edmondson
St Patrick's Athl.
🟨
83'
Harvey Warren
Dundalk

Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 58.7%
Odds 2.04
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds 1.62
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 61.1%
Odds 1.69
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
58.7%
2.04
BTTS Yes
86%
1.62
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
61.1%
1.69
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.12
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
5.50
Correct Score 1-2
-
9.00
Probability Distribution
Dundalk Win 30.3%
Draw 10.9%
St Patrick's Athl. Win 58.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Dundalk1.36
St Patrick's Athl.1.58
Recent Form (Last 5)
Dundalk Dundalk
WWDLW
53 GF / 49 GA
St Patrick's Athl. St Patrick's Athl.
WLDWL
53 GF / 30 GA
Key Stats
1.66
Average Goals Scored
1.61
1.53
Average Goals Conceded
0.91
25
BTTS Yes
14
20
Over 2.5
12
5.2
Shots on Goal
5.2

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Dundalk Dundalk 32 matches
St Patrick's Athl. St Patrick's Athl. 33 matches
Dundalk Statistic St Patrick's Athl.
11 Wins 16
11 Draws 9
10 Losses 8
53 Goals For 53
49 Goals Against 30
1.66 Avg Goals Scored 1.61
1.53 Avg Goals Conceded 0.91
25 BTTS Yes 14
29 Over 1.5 26
20 Over 2.5 12
12 Over 3.5 9
5 Clean Sheets 12
2 Failed To Score 10
5.2 Shots On Goal 5.2
15.9 Total Shots 15.83
5.9 Corners 5.43
50.9% Ball Possession 52.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors St Patrick's Athl.. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Dundalk expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and St Patrick's Athl. in 3-5-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward St Patrick's Athl. having the stronger overall control.

Dundalk Analysis

Placed 4 with 40 points from 29 outings, Dundalk continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 10 wins, 10 draws, and 9 losses, while the 46:45 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Daryl Horgan (8 goals), Tyreke Wilson (4 goals), G. Arubi (4 goals), with creative support from Daryl Horgan (4 assists), Eoin Kenny (3 assists), Tyreke Wilson (2 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 6 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

St Patrick's Athl. Analysis

St Patrick's Athl. arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 2 place with 50 points after 29 matches. Their overall return of 14 wins, 8 draws, and 7 losses with goals at 45:25 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Kian Leavy (4 goals), Ryan Edmondson (4 goals), Zac Elbouzedi (3 goals), with creative support from Zac Elbouzedi (3 assists), Luke Turner (3 assists), Aidan Keena (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their split return of 5 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Dundalk won 4 times, St Patrick's Athl. won 6 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:19 from Dundalk's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.47 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.1%)
Predicted formations: Dundalk 4-2-3-1 / St Patrick's Athl. 3-5-2
H2H summary: Dundalk wins 4, draws 5, St Patrick's Athl. wins 6

Standings

Premier Division
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 32 17 8 7 52:25 27 59
W W W L W
2 31 17 8 6 49:31 18 59
W L D D W
3 31 16 8 7 55:37 18 56
W W W W L
4 32 9 14 9 45:42 3 41
W D W D L
5 32 10 11 11 49:53 -4 41
L L D W L
6 31 9 12 10 41:44 -3 39
W L L D D
7 31 9 10 12 41:47 -6 37
L W L D W
8 32 7 13 12 44:54 -10 34
L D D W D
9 32 8 10 14 38:51 -13 34
L W W L L
10 32 5 8 19 24:54 -30 23
L L L L D
Play-offs
Qualifying
Relegation Play-offs
Relegation