IRELAND PREMIER DIVISION
18.09.2026 18:45
Oriel Park

Dundalk vs Shelbourne Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 78.9%
Odds 1.36
BTTS
Yes
Probability 88%
Odds 1.62
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 1.70
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
78.9%
1.36
BTTS Yes
88%
1.62
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
1.70
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.20
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.60
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.50
Probability Distribution
Dundalk Win 49.5%
Draw 29.4%
Shelbourne Win 21.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Dundalk1.54
Shelbourne1.55
Recent Form (Last 5)
Dundalk Dundalk
WWDLW
53 GF / 53 GA
Shelbourne Shelbourne
WLDWL
59 GF / 56 GA
Key Stats
1.61
Average Goals Scored
1.51
1.61
Average Goals Conceded
1.44
25
BTTS Yes
29
21
Over 2.5
26
5.03
Shots on Goal
3.62

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Dundalk Dundalk 33 matches
Shelbourne Shelbourne 39 matches
Dundalk Statistic Shelbourne
11 Wins 12
11 Draws 15
11 Losses 12
53 Goals For 59
53 Goals Against 56
1.61 Avg Goals Scored 1.51
1.61 Avg Goals Conceded 1.44
25 BTTS Yes 29
30 Over 1.5 31
21 Over 2.5 26
13 Over 3.5 13
5 Clean Sheets 7
3 Failed To Score 7
5.03 Shots On Goal 3.62
15.61 Total Shots 12.21
5.81 Corners 4.65
50.9% Ball Possession 47%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and Dundalk's more proactive style and Shelbourne's more cautious structure points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Shelbourne. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Dundalk expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Shelbourne in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Shelbourne having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Dundalk Analysis

Placed 4 with 40 points from 29 outings, Dundalk continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 10 wins, 10 draws, and 9 defeats, together with a 46:45 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Daryl Horgan (8 goals), Tyreke Wilson (4 goals), G. Arubi (4 goals), with creative support from Daryl Horgan (4 assists), Eoin Kenny (3 assists), Tyreke Wilson (2 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 6 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Shelbourne Analysis

Shelbourne come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 5 with 36 points from 28 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 12 draws, and 8 losses, while the 37:39 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Harry Wood (3 goals), D. Kelly (3 goals), John Martin (2 goals), with creative support from Harry Wood (5 assists), John Martin (1 assists), A. Coote (1 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 5 wins, 7 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Dundalk won 2 times, Shelbourne won 7 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:16 from Dundalk's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 1.93 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (78.9%)
Predicted formations: Dundalk 4-2-3-1 / Shelbourne 4-3-3
H2H summary: Dundalk wins 2, draws 5, Shelbourne wins 7

Standings

Premier Division
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 31 16 8 7 51:25 26 56
W W L W W
2 30 16 8 6 46:29 17 56
L D D W D
3 30 15 8 7 53:36 17 53
W W W L D
4 31 10 11 10 47:50 -3 41
L D W L L
5 31 8 14 9 44:42 2 38
D W D L W
6 30 9 10 11 41:46 -5 37
W L D W D
7 30 8 12 10 38:42 -4 36
L L D D L
8 31 7 13 11 42:51 -9 34
D D W D W
9 31 8 10 13 37:49 -12 34
W W L L D
10 31 5 8 18 24:53 -29 23
L L L D L
Play-offs
Qualifying
Relegation Play-offs
Relegation