IRELAND PREMIER DIVISION
10.07.2026 18:45
Oriel Park
Referee: R. Harvey
Dundalk
Match Timeline
Drogheda United
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
29'
G. Arubi
Dundalk
🔄
46'
L. Burney ↔ J. Bolger
Drogheda United
🟨
50'
Jason Bucknor
Drogheda United
🔄
63'
T. Wilson ↔ D. McDaid
Dundalk
🔄
63'
J. Wilson ↔ T. Clarke
Dundalk
🔄
63'
K. Buckley ↔ S. Tracey
Dundalk
🟨
69'
Trevor Clarke
Dundalk
🔄
70'
B. Kavanagh ↔ J. Godden
Drogheda United
73'
S. Farrell
Drogheda United
🔄
76'
M. Doyle ↔ R. Markey
Drogheda United
🔄
80'
M. Animasahun ↔ H. Groome
Dundalk
85'
S. Farrell
Drogheda United

Dundalk vs Drogheda United Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 82.4%
Odds -
1 agree / 0 disagree
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
82.4%
-
BTTS Yes
82.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
78.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Dundalk Win 82.4%
Draw 8.8%
Drogheda United Win 8.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Dundalk1.69
Drogheda United1.33
Recent Form (Last 5)
Dundalk Dundalk
WWDLW
43 GF / 37 GA
Drogheda United Drogheda United
WLDWL
32 GF / 43 GA
Key Stats
1.72
Average Goals Scored
1.23
1.48
Average Goals Conceded
1.65
18
BTTS Yes
17
16
Over 2.5
13
5.52
Shots on Goal
3.17

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Dundalk Dundalk 25 matches
Drogheda United Drogheda United 26 matches
Dundalk Statistic Drogheda United
10 Wins 6
8 Draws 9
7 Losses 11
43 Goals For 32
37 Goals Against 43
1.72 Avg Goals Scored 1.23
1.48 Avg Goals Conceded 1.65
18 BTTS Yes 17
22 Over 1.5 21
16 Over 2.5 13
10 Over 3.5 9
5 Clean Sheets 6
2 Failed To Score 5
5.52 Shots On Goal 3.17
15.52 Total Shots 9.57
5.78 Corners 3.91
48.7% Ball Possession 38.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Dundalk's more proactive style and Drogheda United's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Drogheda United. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Dundalk arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 4 with 35 points compared to Drogheda United in 8 on 22, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Dundalk expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Drogheda United in 5-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Drogheda United having the stronger overall control.

Dundalk Analysis

Operating from 4 place with 35 points from 22 games, Dundalk bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 9 wins, 8 draws, and 5 losses, with a 36:32 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on Tyreke Wilson (4 goals), Daryl Horgan (4 goals), Gbemi Arubi (3 goals), with creative support from Eoin Kenny (3 assists), Tyreke Wilson (2 assists), Daryl Horgan (2 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have managed 6 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Drogheda United Analysis

Drogheda United are currently 8 in the standings with 22 points from 22 matches. Their overall return of 5 wins, 7 draws, and 10 losses with goals at 27:38 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Mark Doyle (4 goals), Ryan Brennan (2 goals), Warren Davis (2 goals), with creative support from Brandon Kavanagh (3 assists), Thomas Oluwa (1 assists), Jago Godden (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 7 losses points toward a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Dundalk won 5 times, Drogheda United won 3 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:14 from Dundalk's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.46 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (91.2%)
Predicted formations: Dundalk 4-2-3-1 / Drogheda United 5-3-2
H2H summary: Dundalk wins 5, draws 5, Drogheda United wins 3

Standings

Premier Division
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 32 17 8 7 52:25 27 59
W W W L W
2 31 17 8 6 49:31 18 59
W L D D W
3 31 16 8 7 55:37 18 56
W W W W L
4 32 9 14 9 45:42 3 41
W D W D L
5 32 10 11 11 49:53 -4 41
L L D W L
6 31 9 12 10 41:44 -3 39
W L L D D
7 31 9 10 12 41:47 -6 37
L W L D W
8 32 7 13 12 44:54 -10 34
L D D W D
9 32 8 10 14 38:51 -13 34
L W W L L
10 32 5 8 19 24:54 -30 23
L L L L D
Play-offs
Qualifying
Relegation Play-offs
Relegation