IRELAND PREMIER DIVISION
--.--.---- --:--
Oriel Park
Referee: O. Moran
Dundalk
Match Timeline
Derry City
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
20'
D. Horgan · Assist: E. Kenny
Dundalk
🟨
39'
Josh Thomas
Derry City
🟨
45+1'
Brandon Fleming
Derry City
🔄
46'
A. O'Reilly ↔ M. Duffy
Derry City
🔄
46'
K. Santos ↔ D. Markey
Derry City
🔄
46'
B. Doherty ↔ P. McClean
Derry City
🔄
56'
J. Thomas ↔ L. Boyce
Derry City
59'
C. Dummigan
Derry City
60'
G. Arubi · Assist: D. Horgan
Dundalk
🔄
64'
C. Dummigan ↔ J. Clarke
Derry City
🔄
71'
E. Kenny ↔ K. Buckley
Dundalk
🔄
71'
S. Tracey ↔ R. Teahan
Dundalk
🟨
73'
Aodh Dervin
Dundalk
🟨
76'
James Olayinka
Derry City
🔄
78'
A. Dervin ↔ H. Groome
Dundalk
🔄
82'
D. Horgan ↔ D. Mullen
Dundalk
🟨
90+7'
Bobby Burns
Dundalk
🟨
90+5'
Patrick McClean
Derry City

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 80.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 17.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 39.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
80.9%
-
BTTS BTTS No
17.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
39.8%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Dundalk Win 45.5%
Draw 19.1%
Derry City Win 35.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Dundalk1.51
Derry City1.23
Recent Form (Last 5)
Dundalk Dundalk
WWDLW
35 GF / 30 GA
Derry City Derry City
WLDWL
22 GF / 24 GA
Key Stats
1.75
Average Goals Scored
1.05
1.5
Average Goals Conceded
1.14
14
BTTS Yes
12
12
Over 2.5
10
6.06
Shots on Goal
4.42

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Dundalk Dundalk 20 matches
Derry City Derry City 21 matches
Dundalk Statistic Derry City
7 Wins 4
8 Draws 10
5 Losses 7
35 Goals For 22
30 Goals Against 24
1.75 Avg Goals Scored 1.05
1.5 Avg Goals Conceded 1.14
14 BTTS Yes 12
18 Over 1.5 12
12 Over 2.5 10
9 Over 3.5 5
4 Clean Sheets 5
2 Failed To Score 8
6.06 Shots On Goal 4.42
15.94 Total Shots 12.84
6.11 Corners 6.11
50.5% Ball Possession 55.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between Dundalk's more proactive style and Derry City's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Derry City. Dundalk have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Dundalk expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Derry City in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Derry City having the stronger overall control.

Dundalk Analysis

Dundalk approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 4 with 25 points from 17 matches. Their record of 6 wins, 7 draws, and 4 losses, together with goals at 28:26, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through D. Horgan (5 goals), G. Arubi (4 goals), Declan McDaid (3 goals), with creative support from D. Horgan (5 assists), G. Arubi (3 assists), E. Kenny (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, the split record of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

Derry City Analysis

From their first 17 matches, Derry City have collected 20 points and now occupy 6 place in the table. The record of 4 wins, 8 draws, and 5 defeats, together with a 21:21 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through M. Duffy (5 goals), James Clarke (4 goals), D. Akinyemi (3 goals), with creative support from Ben Doherty (2 assists), Brandon Fleming (2 assists), J. McClean (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Dundalk won 3 times, Derry City won 4 times, while 8 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:24 from Dundalk's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 2.73 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (80.9%)
Predicted formations: Dundalk 4-2-3-1 / Derry City 4-3-3
H2H summary: Dundalk wins 3, draws 8, Derry City wins 4
Stats
Dundalk Dundalk
Derry City Derry City
Shots on Goal
4
Shots on Goal
4
Shots off Goal
7
Shots off Goal
6
Blocked Shots
3
Blocked Shots
2
6 Corner Kicks 5
6 Fouls 16
1 Offsides 0
40% Ball Possession 60%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Goal 4
7 Shots off Goal 6
3 Blocked Shots 2
12 Shots insidebox 6
2 Shots outsidebox 6
3 Goalkeeper Saves 2
302 Total passes 459
192 Passes accurate 355
1.76 expected_goals 0.77
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 4 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Dundalk
Formation
Derry City
E. Minogue
E. Minogue
J. Wilson
J. Wilson
R. Cornwall
R. Cornwall
B. Burns
B. Burns
T. Wilson
T. Wilson
D. McDaid
D. McDaid
A. Dervin
A. Dervin
S. Tracey
S. Tracey
D. Horgan
🎯
D. Horgan
G. Arubi
G. Arubi
E. Kenny
🎯
E. Kenny
E. Beach
E. Beach
B. Cotter
B. Cotter
C. Barr
C. Barr
J. Stott
J. Stott
B. Fleming
B. Fleming
K. Santos
K. Santos
A. O'Reilly
A. O'Reilly
C. Dummigan
C. Dummigan
J. Olayinka
J. Olayinka
B. Doherty
B. Doherty
J. Thomas
J. Thomas
Dundalk 4-4-2
Starting XI
1
E. Minogue
G
31
J. Wilson
D
24
R. Cornwall
D
3
B. Burns
🟨 90+7'
D
22
T. Wilson
D
27
D. McDaid
M
6
A. Dervin
↓ 78' 🟨 73'
M
17
S. Tracey
↓ 71'
M
7
D. Horgan
⚽ 20' 🎯 60' ↓ 82'
M
9
G. Arubi
⚽ 60'
F
16
E. Kenny
🎯 20' ↓ 71'
F
Substitutes
13
P. Cherrie
G
18
K. Buckley
↑ 71'
M
12
L. Mulligan
D
11
R. Teahan
↑ 71'
M
21
D. Mullen
↑ 82'
F
8
H. Groome
↑ 78'
M
19
S. Spaight
D
29
T. Molloy
F
23
A. M. Keogh
M
Derry City 4-5-1
Starting XI
13
E. Beach
G
2
B. Cotter
D
22
C. Barr
D
4
J. Stott
D
19
B. Fleming
🟨 45+1'
D
21
K. Santos
↓ 46'
M
8
A. O'Reilly
↓ 46'
M
23
C. Dummigan
⚽ 59' ↓ 64'
M
28
J. Olayinka
🟨 76'
M
14
B. Doherty
↓ 46'
M
17
J. Thomas
↓ 56' 🟨 39'
F
Substitutes
26
S. Callister
G
27
L. Boyce
↑ 56'
F
7
M. Duffy
↑ 46'
M
10
D. Markey
↑ 46'
M
3
P. McClean
↑ 46' 🟨 90+5'
D
15
J. Clarke
↑ 64'
M
9
D. Akinyemi
F
25
A. Bannon
D
24
H. Rylah
M
Last matches: Dundalk
10.07.26
Pre
Dundalk
Drogheda United
1
2
L
03.07.26
Pre
Dundalk
Shelbourne
1
2
L
26.06.26
Pre
Dundalk
Waterford
2
3
L
19.06.26
Pre
Dundalk
Bohemians
2
1
W
12.06.26
Pre
Dundalk
Galway United
1
0
W
22.05.26
Pre
Dundalk
Drogheda United
1
1
D
15.05.26
Pre
Dundalk
Shamrock Rovers
1
0
W
08.05.26
Pre
Dundalk
Bohemians
1
3
L
04.05.26
Pre
Dundalk
Waterford
3
3
D
01.05.26
Pre
Dundalk
Shelbourne
1
2
L
25.04.26
Pre
Dundalk
Sligo Rovers
0
2
L
17.04.26
Pre
Dundalk
Galway United
2
1
W
10.04.26
Pre
Dundalk
Derry City
2
2
D
06.04.26
Pre
Dundalk
St Patrick's Athl.
2
0
W
03.04.26
Pre
Dundalk
Shelbourne
3
2
W
20.03.26
Pre
Dundalk
Bohemians
1
1
D
16.03.26
Pre
Dundalk
Sligo Rovers
1
0
W
13.03.26
Pre
Dundalk
Waterford
5
0
W
06.03.26
Pre
Dundalk
Galway United
2
2
D
27.02.26
Pre
Dundalk
St Patrick's Athl.
0
4
L
Last matches: Derry City
09.07.26
UEF
Derry City
CSKA Sofia
2
3
L
03.07.26
Pre
Derry City
Waterford
2
4
L
26.06.26
Pre
Derry City
Drogheda United
2
0
W
22.06.26
Pre
Derry City
Shamrock Rovers
1
1
D
19.06.26
Pre
Derry City
Galway United
1
2
L
12.06.26
Pre
Derry City
Bohemians
4
1
W
25.05.26
Pre
Derry City
Shelbourne
0
0
D
22.05.26
Pre
Derry City
St Patrick's Athl.
0
0
D
15.05.26
Pre
Derry City
Waterford
2
2
D
08.05.26
Pre
Derry City
Drogheda United
0
1
L
04.05.26
Pre
Derry City
Galway United
1
1
D
01.05.26
Pre
Derry City
Bohemians
1
1
D
24.04.26
Pre
Derry City
Shamrock Rovers
1
0
W
17.04.26
Pre
Derry City
Shelbourne
2
1
W
10.04.26
Pre
Derry City
Dundalk
2
2
D
06.04.26
Pre
Derry City
Sligo Rovers
0
0
D
03.04.26
Pre
Derry City
Galway United
1
2
L
20.03.26
Pre
Derry City
Drogheda United
2
2
D
16.03.26
Pre
Derry City
St Patrick's Athl.
0
0
D
13.03.26
Pre
Derry City
Shelbourne
1
2
L
H2H: Dundalk vs Derry City
29.05.26
H2H
Dundalk
Derry City
2
1
W
10.04.26
H2H
Dundalk
Derry City
2
2
D
13.02.26
H2H
Derry City
Dundalk
2
2
D
18.10.24
H2H
Dundalk
Derry City
0
2
L
09.08.24
H2H
Derry City
Dundalk
1
1
D
31.05.24
H2H
Dundalk
Derry City
0
0
D
05.04.24
H2H
Derry City
Dundalk
4
1
L
01.09.23
H2H
Dundalk
Derry City
1
3
L
15.05.23
H2H
Derry City
Dundalk
3
0
L
16.04.23
H2H
Dundalk
Derry City
2
2
D
10.03.23
H2H
Derry City
Dundalk
0
0
D
06.11.22
H2H
Derry City
Dundalk
0
1
W
05.08.22
H2H
Dundalk
Derry City
1
1
D
20.05.22
H2H
Derry City
Dundalk
1
2
W
18.02.22
H2H
Dundalk
Derry City
2
2
D
Last matches: Dundalk
10.07.26
Pre
Dundalk
Drogheda United
1
2
L
26.06.26
Pre
Dundalk
Waterford
2
3
L
15.05.26
Pre
Dundalk
Shamrock Rovers
1
0
W
08.05.26
Pre
Dundalk
Bohemians
1
3
L
01.05.26
Pre
Dundalk
Shelbourne
1
2
L
17.04.26
Pre
Dundalk
Galway United
2
1
W
10.04.26
Pre
Dundalk
Derry City
2
2
D
06.04.26
Pre
Dundalk
St Patrick's Athl.
2
0
W
16.03.26
Pre
Dundalk
Sligo Rovers
1
0
W
13.03.26
Pre
Dundalk
Waterford
5
0
W
20.02.26
Pre
Dundalk
Drogheda United
1
1
D
H2H at home: Dundalk
29.05.26
H2H
Dundalk
Derry City
2
1
W
10.04.26
H2H
Dundalk
Derry City
2
2
D
18.10.24
H2H
Dundalk
Derry City
0
2
L
31.05.24
H2H
Dundalk
Derry City
0
0
D
01.09.23
H2H
Dundalk
Derry City
1
3
L
16.04.23
H2H
Dundalk
Derry City
2
2
D
05.08.22
H2H
Dundalk
Derry City
1
1
D
18.02.22
H2H
Dundalk
Derry City
2
2
D
Last matches: Derry City
09.07.26
UEF
Derry City
CSKA Sofia
2
3
L
22.06.26
Pre
Derry City
Shamrock Rovers
1
1
D
19.06.26
Pre
Derry City
Galway United
1
2
L
15.05.26
Pre
Derry City
Waterford
2
2
D
08.05.26
Pre
Derry City
Drogheda United
0
1
L
01.05.26
Pre
Derry City
Bohemians
1
1
D
17.04.26
Pre
Derry City
Shelbourne
2
1
W
10.04.26
Pre
Derry City
Dundalk
2
2
D
06.04.26
Pre
Derry City
Sligo Rovers
0
0
D
03.04.26
Pre
Derry City
Galway United
1
2
L
16.03.26
Pre
Derry City
St Patrick's Athl.
0
0
D
06.03.26
Pre
Derry City
Shamrock Rovers
0
1
L
23.01.26
Fri
Derry City
Polessya
1
2
L
09.01.26
Fri
Derry City
Sligo Rovers
0
1
L
H2H away: Derry City
29.05.26
H2H
Dundalk
Derry City
2
1
L
10.04.26
H2H
Dundalk
Derry City
2
2
D
18.10.24
H2H
Dundalk
Derry City
0
2
W
31.05.24
H2H
Dundalk
Derry City
0
0
D
01.09.23
H2H
Dundalk
Derry City
1
3
W
16.04.23
H2H
Dundalk
Derry City
2
2
D
05.08.22
H2H
Dundalk
Derry City
1
1
D
18.02.22
H2H
Dundalk
Derry City
2
2
D

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 15 5 5 40:22 18 50
W W D W L
2 25 12 7 6 40:27 13 43
W W W L L
3 24 12 6 6 39:20 19 42
D W L W W
4 24 9 8 7 38:36 2 35
L L L W W
5 24 8 10 6 35:35 0 34
W D L D W
6 25 6 11 8 32:31 1 29
L W D L W
7 23 7 6 10 32:39 -7 27
W L L W L
8 24 6 7 11 29:41 -12 25
W L L D L
9 24 4 9 11 33:47 -14 21
D W W L W
10 24 5 5 14 20:40 -20 20
L L D L L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Premier Division (Relegation)
Relegation - Division 1