BULGARIA FIRST LEAGUE
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Gradski stadion

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 84.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
84.2%
-
BTTS Yes
78.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
-
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Dunav Ruse Win 15.8%
Draw 47.9%
Lokomotiv Sofia Win 36.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Dunav Ruse1.41
Lokomotiv Sofia1.41
Recent Form (Last 5)
Dunav Ruse Dunav Ruse
WWDLW
17 GF / 24 GA
Lokomotiv Sofia Lokomotiv Sofia
WLDWL
17 GF / 24 GA
Key Stats
1.21
Average Goals Scored
1.21
1.71
Average Goals Conceded
1.71
10
BTTS Yes
10
9
Over 2.5
8
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Dunav Ruse Dunav Ruse 14 matches
Lokomotiv Sofia Lokomotiv Sofia 14 matches
Dunav Ruse Statistic Lokomotiv Sofia
2 Wins 3
4 Draws 5
8 Losses 6
17 Goals For 17
24 Goals Against 24
1.21 Avg Goals Scored 1.21
1.71 Avg Goals Conceded 1.71
10 BTTS Yes 10
13 Over 1.5 11
9 Over 2.5 8
5 Over 3.5 5
2 Clean Sheets 3
3 Failed To Score 2
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Lokomotiv Sofia.

Dunav Ruse Analysis

Dunav Ruse sit 12 with 3 points after 6 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 5 defeats with a 5:12 goal balance points toward poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, the split record of 0 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Lokomotiv Sofia Analysis

With 2 points from 5 games and a place of 13, Lokomotiv Sofia still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 defeats with a 5:10 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, the split record of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (84.2%)
Predicted formations: Dunav Ruse 4-2-3-1 / Lokomotiv Sofia 4-2-3-1
Last matches: Dunav Ruse
21.08.26
Fir
Dunav Ruse
Cherno More Varna
1
3
L
16.08.26
Fir
Dunav Ruse
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
2
1
W
08.08.26
Fir
Dunav Ruse
Arda Kardzhali
0
2
L
02.08.26
Fir
Dunav Ruse
CSKA Sofia
1
2
L
27.07.26
Fir
Dunav Ruse
Ludogorets
0
2
L
17.07.26
Fir
Dunav Ruse
Levski Sofia
1
2
L
11.07.26
Fri
Dunav Ruse
Cherno More Varna
1
1
D
01.07.26
Fri
Dunav Ruse
Dobrudzha
1
1
D
27.06.26
Fri
Dunav Ruse
Spartak Varna
0
0
D
20.06.26
Fri
Dunav Ruse
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1
2
L
31.01.26
Fri
Dunav Ruse
CSKA Sofia
1
3
L
28.01.26
Fri
Dunav Ruse
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
2
2
D
24.01.26
Fri
Dunav Ruse
Spartak Varna
1
3
L
17.01.26
Fri
Dunav Ruse
CS Dinamo București
5
0
W
Last matches: Lokomotiv Sofia
17.08.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Sofia
Arda Kardzhali
1
3
L
08.08.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Sofia
CSKA 1948
1
3
L
31.07.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Sofia
Slavia Sofia
1
1
D
25.07.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Sofia
Levski Sofia
1
2
L
21.07.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Sofia
Botev Plovdiv
1
1
D
11.07.26
Fri
Lokomotiv Sofia
Teuta Durrës
0
0
D
04.07.26
Fri
Lokomotiv Sofia
Dukagjini
3
3
D
26.06.26
Fri
Lokomotiv Sofia
Drita
2
1
W
22.05.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Sofia
Spartak Varna
0
3
L
18.05.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Sofia
Slavia Sofia
2
0
W
14.05.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Sofia
Beroe
1
1
D
09.05.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Sofia
Montana
2
2
D
05.05.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Sofia
Botev Vratsa
2
2
D
01.05.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Sofia
Dobrudzha
3
0
W
27.04.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Sofia
Septemvri Sofia
1
1
D
14.04.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Sofia
Botev Vratsa
2
3
L
09.04.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Sofia
Beroe
2
1
W
03.04.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Sofia
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0
1
L
27.03.26
Fri
Lokomotiv Sofia
Botev Plovdiv
1
3
L
21.03.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Sofia
CSKA 1948
2
3
L
Last matches: Dunav Ruse
08.08.26
Fir
Dunav Ruse
Arda Kardzhali
0
2
L
27.07.26
Fir
Dunav Ruse
Ludogorets
0
2
L
01.07.26
Fri
Dunav Ruse
Dobrudzha
1
1
D
20.06.26
Fri
Dunav Ruse
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1
2
L
24.01.26
Fri
Dunav Ruse
Spartak Varna
1
3
L
Last matches: Lokomotiv Sofia
17.08.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Sofia
Arda Kardzhali
1
3
L
31.07.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Sofia
Slavia Sofia
1
1
D
21.07.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Sofia
Botev Plovdiv
1
1
D
22.05.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Sofia
Spartak Varna
0
3
L
09.05.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Sofia
Montana
2
2
D
01.05.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Sofia
Dobrudzha
3
0
W
14.04.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Sofia
Botev Vratsa
2
3
L
03.04.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Sofia
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0
1
L
27.03.26
Fri
Lokomotiv Sofia
Botev Plovdiv
1
3
L
21.03.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Sofia
CSKA 1948
2
3
L
08.03.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Sofia
CSKA Sofia
0
2
L
01.03.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Sofia
Levski Sofia
3
4
L
13.02.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Sofia
Spartak Varna
2
2
D
17.01.26
Fri
Lokomotiv Sofia
Lechia Gdansk
1
2
L
02.12.25
Fir
Lokomotiv Sofia
Montana
2
1
W
22.11.25
Fir
Lokomotiv Sofia
Cherno More Varna
1
0
W
03.11.25
Fir
Lokomotiv Sofia
Beroe
3
1
W
03.10.25
Fir
Lokomotiv Sofia
Slavia Sofia
0
2
L
20.09.25
Fir
Lokomotiv Sofia
Dobrudzha
2
2
D
29.08.25
Fir
Lokomotiv Sofia
Septemvri Sofia
0
1
L

Standings

First League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 7 5 1 1 15:7 8 16
W L W W W
2 6 5 1 0 11:4 7 16
D W W W W
3 5 5 0 0 15:2 13 15
W W W W W
4 5 4 1 0 13:3 10 13
W W W W D
5 6 4 1 1 9:4 5 13
W W W L W
6 7 2 2 3 5:10 -5 8
D W W L L
7 6 1 4 1 6:4 2 7
D D W D L
8 6 2 1 3 7:9 -2 7
L L W W L
9 6 2 1 3 8:12 -4 7
L L L W W
10 6 1 1 4 7:13 -6 4
W L L L L
11 6 1 1 4 4:13 -9 4
W L L L L
12 6 1 0 5 5:12 -7 3
L W L L L
13 7 1 0 6 3:10 -7 3
L L L L L
14 5 0 2 3 5:10 -5 2
L L D L D
Play-offs
Play-offs playoffs
Relegation Playoffs