IRELAND PREMIER DIVISION
--.--.---- --:--
Weavers Park
Referee: A. Hunter
Drogheda United
Match Timeline
Derry City
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
36'
Ryan Brennan
Drogheda United
🟨
42'
Brandon Fleming
Derry City
🟨
45'
Darragh Markey
Derry City
55'
R. Brennan
Drogheda United
🔄
68'
M. Doyle ↔ J. Bucknor
Drogheda United
🔄
70'
D. Markey ↔ B. Cotter
Derry City
🔄
71'
M. Duffy ↔ D. Akinyemi
Derry City
🔄
71'
K. Santos ↔ H. Rylah
Derry City
🔄
72'
R. Brennan ↔ J. Godden
Drogheda United
🟨
73'
Shane Farell
Drogheda United
🔄
85'
C. Barr ↔ C. Dummigan
Derry City
🔄
89'
B. Kavanagh ↔ A. Quinn
Drogheda United
🔄
90+2'
A. O'Reilly ↔ J. Thomas
Derry City

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 82.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 90.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 75.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
82.7%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
90.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
75.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
89.9%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Drogheda United Win 31.2%
Draw 17.3%
Derry City Win 51.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Drogheda United1.31
Derry City1.34
Recent Form (Last 5)
Drogheda United Drogheda United
WWDLW
23 GF / 27 GA
Derry City Derry City
WLDWL
20 GF / 21 GA
Key Stats
1.35
Average Goals Scored
1.18
1.59
Average Goals Conceded
1.24
12
BTTS Yes
11
9
Over 2.5
9
3.64
Shots on Goal
4.8

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Drogheda United Drogheda United 17 matches
Derry City Derry City 17 matches
Drogheda United Statistic Derry City
5 Wins 4
6 Draws 7
6 Losses 6
23 Goals For 20
27 Goals Against 21
1.35 Avg Goals Scored 1.18
1.59 Avg Goals Conceded 1.24
12 BTTS Yes 11
13 Over 1.5 11
9 Over 2.5 9
7 Over 3.5 4
5 Clean Sheets 3
2 Failed To Score 5
3.64 Shots On Goal 4.8
10.29 Total Shots 13.47
4.21 Corners 6.07
39.3% Ball Possession 52.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and Derry City's more proactive style and Drogheda United's more cautious structure points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Drogheda United expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Derry City in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Derry City having the stronger overall control. Drogheda United have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Derry City. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Drogheda United Analysis

Drogheda United approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 8 with 16 points from 14 matches. The overall return of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 6 defeats with a 18:24 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on M. Doyle (6 goals), Conor Keeley (3 goals), W. Davis (3 goals), with creative support from B. Kavanagh (2 assists), Conor Keeley (1 assists), J. Godden (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Derry City Analysis

Derry City come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 5 with 19 points from 15 matches. Their overall return of 4 wins, 7 draws, and 4 losses with goals at 19:18 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by M. Duffy (5 goals), James Clarke (4 goals), D. Akinyemi (3 goals), with creative support from Ben Doherty (2 assists), J. McClean (2 assists), M. Duffy (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (82.7%)
Predicted formations: Drogheda United 4-2-3-1 / Derry City 4-3-3
Stats
Drogheda United Drogheda United
Derry City Derry City
Shots on Goal
2
Shots on Goal
4
Shots off Goal
3
Shots off Goal
5
Blocked Shots
1
Blocked Shots
4
2 Corner Kicks 9
6 Fouls 10
2 Offsides 0
31% Ball Possession 69%
6 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Goal 4
3 Shots off Goal 5
1 Blocked Shots 4
3 Shots insidebox 6
3 Shots outsidebox 7
4 Goalkeeper Saves 1
244 Total passes 524
124 Passes accurate 399
0 expected_goals 0
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Drogheda United
Formation
Derry City
F. Talley
F. Talley
E. Agbaje
E. Agbaje
C. Keeley
C. Keeley
J. Bolger
J. Bolger
C. Kane
C. Kane
S. Farrell
S. Farrell
R. Brennan
R. Brennan
W. Davis
W. Davis
B. Kavanagh
B. Kavanagh
T. Oluwa
T. Oluwa
M. Doyle
M. Doyle
E. Beach
E. Beach
C. Barr
C. Barr
J. Stott
J. Stott
P. McClean
P. McClean
B. Fleming
B. Fleming
A. O'Reilly
A. O'Reilly
C. Winchester
C. Winchester
K. Santos
K. Santos
D. Markey
D. Markey
M. Duffy
M. Duffy
J. Clarke
J. Clarke
Drogheda United 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
44
F. Talley
G
2
E. Agbaje
D
22
C. Keeley
D
18
J. Bolger
D
3
C. Kane
D
17
S. Farrell
🟨 73'
M
19
R. Brennan
⚽ 55' ↓ 72' 🟨 36'
M
24
W. Davis
M
10
B. Kavanagh
↓ 89'
M
11
T. Oluwa
M
14
M. Doyle
↓ 68'
F
Substitutes
1
L. Dennison
G
6
J. Godden
↑ 72'
F
5
L. Burney
D
7
J. Bucknor
↑ 68'
D
4
A. Quinn
↑ 89'
D
31
K. Cruise
D
15
D. Kareem
F
29
J. Brennan
M
30
C. O'Connor
M
Derry City 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
13
E. Beach
G
22
C. Barr
↓ 85'
D
4
J. Stott
D
3
P. McClean
D
19
B. Fleming
🟨 42'
D
8
A. O'Reilly
↓ 90+2'
M
20
C. Winchester
M
21
K. Santos
↓ 71'
M
10
D. Markey
↓ 70' 🟨 45'
M
7
M. Duffy
↓ 71'
M
15
J. Clarke
F
Substitutes
26
S. Callister
G
23
C. Dummigan
↑ 85'
D
2
B. Cotter
↑ 70'
D
17
J. Thomas
↑ 90+2'
F
14
B. Doherty
D
28
J. Olayinka
M
9
D. Akinyemi
↑ 71'
F
25
A. Bannon
D
24
H. Rylah
↑ 71'
M
Last matches: Drogheda United
10.07.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Dundalk
2
1
W
03.07.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Bohemians
0
2
L
26.06.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Derry City
0
2
L
19.06.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Shelbourne
2
2
D
12.06.26
Pre
Drogheda United
St Patrick's Athl.
0
2
L
29.05.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Waterford
3
3
D
22.05.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Dundalk
1
1
D
18.05.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Waterford
1
2
L
15.05.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Bohemians
1
2
L
04.05.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Shamrock Rovers
1
4
L
01.05.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Sligo Rovers
1
0
W
24.04.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Shelbourne
4
3
W
17.04.26
Pre
Drogheda United
St Patrick's Athl.
1
3
L
06.04.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Galway United
2
3
L
03.04.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Bohemians
0
0
D
20.03.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Derry City
2
2
D
16.03.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Shamrock Rovers
0
0
D
13.03.26
Pre
Drogheda United
St Patrick's Athl.
1
4
L
07.03.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Sligo Rovers
1
2
L
27.02.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Shelbourne
1
2
L
Last matches: Derry City
09.07.26
UEF
Derry City
CSKA Sofia
2
3
L
03.07.26
Pre
Derry City
Waterford
2
4
L
26.06.26
Pre
Derry City
Drogheda United
2
0
W
22.06.26
Pre
Derry City
Shamrock Rovers
1
1
D
19.06.26
Pre
Derry City
Galway United
1
2
L
12.06.26
Pre
Derry City
Bohemians
4
1
W
29.05.26
Pre
Derry City
Dundalk
1
2
L
25.05.26
Pre
Derry City
Shelbourne
0
0
D
22.05.26
Pre
Derry City
St Patrick's Athl.
0
0
D
15.05.26
Pre
Derry City
Waterford
2
2
D
04.05.26
Pre
Derry City
Galway United
1
1
D
01.05.26
Pre
Derry City
Bohemians
1
1
D
24.04.26
Pre
Derry City
Shamrock Rovers
1
0
W
17.04.26
Pre
Derry City
Shelbourne
2
1
W
10.04.26
Pre
Derry City
Dundalk
2
2
D
06.04.26
Pre
Derry City
Sligo Rovers
0
0
D
03.04.26
Pre
Derry City
Galway United
1
2
L
20.03.26
Pre
Derry City
Drogheda United
2
2
D
16.03.26
Pre
Derry City
St Patrick's Athl.
0
0
D
13.03.26
Pre
Derry City
Shelbourne
1
2
L
Last matches: Drogheda United
03.07.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Bohemians
0
2
L
19.06.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Shelbourne
2
2
D
29.05.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Waterford
3
3
D
22.05.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Dundalk
1
1
D
01.05.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Sligo Rovers
1
0
W
17.04.26
Pre
Drogheda United
St Patrick's Athl.
1
3
L
06.04.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Galway United
2
3
L
03.04.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Bohemians
0
0
D
16.03.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Shamrock Rovers
0
0
D
27.02.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Shelbourne
1
2
L
13.02.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Waterford
2
0
W
20.01.26
Fri
Drogheda United
UCD
1
1
D
09.01.26
Fri
Drogheda United
Bohemians
1
1
D
Last matches: Derry City
09.07.26
UEF
Derry City
CSKA Sofia
2
3
L
22.06.26
Pre
Derry City
Shamrock Rovers
1
1
D
19.06.26
Pre
Derry City
Galway United
1
2
L
29.05.26
Pre
Derry City
Dundalk
1
2
L
15.05.26
Pre
Derry City
Waterford
2
2
D
01.05.26
Pre
Derry City
Bohemians
1
1
D
17.04.26
Pre
Derry City
Shelbourne
2
1
W
10.04.26
Pre
Derry City
Dundalk
2
2
D
06.04.26
Pre
Derry City
Sligo Rovers
0
0
D
03.04.26
Pre
Derry City
Galway United
1
2
L
16.03.26
Pre
Derry City
St Patrick's Athl.
0
0
D
06.03.26
Pre
Derry City
Shamrock Rovers
0
1
L
23.01.26
Fri
Derry City
Polessya
1
2
L
09.01.26
Fri
Derry City
Sligo Rovers
0
1
L

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 15 5 5 40:22 18 50
W W D W L
2 25 12 7 6 40:27 13 43
W W W L L
3 24 12 6 6 39:20 19 42
D W L W W
4 24 9 8 7 38:36 2 35
L L L W W
5 24 8 10 6 35:35 0 34
W D L D W
6 25 6 11 8 32:31 1 29
L W D L W
7 23 7 6 10 32:39 -7 27
W L L W L
8 24 6 7 11 29:41 -12 25
W L L D L
9 24 4 9 11 33:47 -14 21
D W W L W
10 24 5 5 14 20:40 -20 20
L L D L L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Premier Division (Relegation)
Relegation - Division 1